Thursday, October 24, 2019

A Middle East in Continual Flux

"According to this agreement, Turkey and Russia will not allow any separatist agenda on Syrian territory."
Recep Tayyip Erdogan
A Turkish army officer jumps from his tank moving to its new position on the Turkish side of the border between Turkey and Syria, in Sanliurfa province, southeastern Turkey, Tuesday, Oct. 8, 2019. Tensions have risen at the border between Turkey and Syria, on expectation of a Turkish military incursion into Syria. (AP Photo/Lefteris Pitarakis)
A Turkish army officer jumps from his tank moving to its new position on the Turkish side of the border between Turkey and Syria, in Sanliurfa province, southeastern Turkey, Tuesday, Oct. 8, 2019.

"The sanctions will be lifted unless something happens that we are unhappy with."
"[There has been a major breakthrough in a better future for Syria and for the Middle East.] It's been a long time."
"[The cease fire has held] well - beyond most expectations [although some patients were photographed showing horrendous injuries sustained during the period]."
"'A small number of US troops will stay in the area where they have the oil, and we will be protecting it."
"We were supposed to be there for 30 days ... they stayed for almost 10 years. This was an outcome created by us, the United States, and nobody else, no other nation, very simple. And we're willing to take blame and we're also willing to take credit. This is something they've been trying not do for many many decades."
U.S. President Donald J.Trump 

"The United States was the closest ally of the Kurds over the past few years. But in the end, the U.S. abandoned the Kurds, actually betraying them."
"The U.S. opted to abandon the Kurds on the border, almost forcing them to fight against the Turks."
Russian presidential spokesman, Dmitry Peskov
Medics wipe a man's face after he was injured in the blast in Ras al-Ain - which took place despite Turkey's claims that it has stopped its military offensive
Medics wipe a man's face after he was injured in the blast in Ras al-Ain - which took place despite Turkey's claims that it has stopped its military offensive
Where the United States moved out, Russia moved in, because as everyone knows, nature and the fortunes of conflict abhor a vacuum. Leaving Russia to negotiate between Turkey and Syria for a ceasefire of Turkish troops against the Kurdish Peoples Protection Units, abandoned by the U.S. military on orders from the White House, leaving an estimated 300,000 Kurdish civilians to flee their towns and villages. The vile atrocities committed by the Shiite militias in league with Turkey fully equal those of the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant, now once again gathering steam.

The U.S.-brokered ceasefire between Turkish and Kurdish forces was preparing to expire, though it was a ceasefire in name only, shattered countless times by the proxy militias serving under the Turks. Talks between Vladimir Putin and Erdogan in Sochi, Russia concluded with an agreement where all Kurdish forces would retreat 29 kilometres from the Syrian border over the next six days. The towns and villages already taken by the Turks will remain in their hands, an outcome surely not welcomed by Syria's Bashar al-Assad.

Joint military patrols by Russian and Turkish troops are scheduled to be launched in the area to make certain of implementation of the agreement, though Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces stated no immediate response to the agreement. For the time being at the very least, Ankara has agreed its military offensive is at a standstill. Russian forces are prepared to guard areas where U.S. troops were patrolling a few weeks earlier.

Presidents Vladimir Putin and Recep Tayyip Erdogan shake hands.
Putin and Erdogan, Sochi, Oct. 22. SERGEI CHIRIKOV/POOL/AFP via Getty Images
Turkey is to maintain continued control in those areas it has taken possession of while it appears that Syrian regime forces are set to hold the remainder of the border. The Kurds are slated, according to the agreement, to withdraw from two towns in Western Syria, Kobani and Tel Rifaat. As usual, the world looks on as Kurdish life, culture, geography and heritage are once again being looted, their hard-fought territorial geography yanked out from under repeatedly, their human rights abrogated. 

The announcement that up to 500 Islamic State terrorists had made good their escape from Kurdish-operated prison camps in northeast Syria hardly comes as a surprise, given the chaos resulting from the Turkish offensive, effectively calling away Kurdish fighters to the more urgent existential protection of their homeland, their towns, their people. 

As for the withdrawn U.S. troops which Washington had intended to deploy to Iraq, its government has stated it had not agreed to extend permission to the retreating troops to remain in Iraq. The ultimate ignominy visited upon the American troops reluctant to abandon their Kurdish counterparts with whom they have shared the stresses and dangers of the battlefield, forging a bond that a casual decision by their president has summarily sundered.

A map showing the area that will be patrolled by Russian and Turkish forces under the agreement struck between Putin and Erdogan


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posted by Pieface @ Thursday, October 24, 2019

Friday, October 18, 2019

Break Out the Champagne!

"As far as he [SDF commander, Mazloum Kobani] is concerned the ceasefire is only where there’s active fighting and he totally rejects the idea of any kind of withdrawal, any removal of heavy weapons." 
"So everyone seems to be talking a different language, which can only spell more trouble."
Charles Lister, Syria expert, Middle East Institute

"They’ve [Turkey] had terrorists, they had a lot of people in there that they couldn’t have. They suffered a lot of loss of lives and they had to have it cleaned out."
"This outcome is something they’ve been trying to get for 10 years."
"[The Kurdistan Workers Party -- PKK -- a militant group launching attacks inside Turkey for Kurdish independence] is probably worse at terror and more of a terrorist threat in many ways [than the Islamic State]." 
"So it's a very semi-complicated -- not too complicated if you're smart. But it's a semi-complicated problem, and I think it's a problem that we have very nicely under control."
U.S. President Donald J. Trump

 "I worry we will not have allies in the future against radical Islam, ISIS will re-emerge and Iran's rise in Syria will become a nightmare for Israel."
"I fear this is a complete and utter national security disaster in the making and I hope President Trump will adjust his thinking."
Republican Senator Lindsey Graham
Turkey-backed Syrian rebel fighters in the border town of Tal Abyad. The US-Turkey agreement calls for a 120-hour ceasefire in a “safe zone”. Photograph: Khalil Ashawi/Reuters

This very smart man incapable of fully comprehending the complexity of the Middle East, its ancient sectarian rivalries, its ethnic divisions, its tribal animosities and its general penchant toward blistering rhetoric followed by threats and armed invasions mindlessly slaughtering perceived opponents, speaks of the simplicity of solving not very 'complicated' issues by following his simple-minded advice. His intention to extract American military personnel from critical roles in defence of allies and supporting the military-capable among the Middle Eastern players to defeat the forces of psychopathic Islamism is his solution to settling an entirely new threat targeting faithful regional allies is a new low, even for this troglodyte.

Speaking from the Oval Office this man who is president of the great United States of America claims to have had no impact whatever on the new theatre of war playing out in northern Syria with Turkey's Erdogan deciding he will no longer wait for a more opportune moment to send in his troops to decimate the hated Kurds whom his territorial greed has deprived of an agreement to cede to this ancient people their own ancestral land to form the basis of a new independent country to finally establish a homeland for the largest minority group of 40 million people, without a recognized country of their own.

Trump harrumphed that the issue over territory between Turkey and the Kurds was "over land that has nothing to do with us", in defending his decision to abandon a faithful ally in the fight against Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant, which had successfully recruited support world wide for their jihadist-centrist caliphate whose missionaries were dispatched to capture, torture and murder victims in the most gruesome manner their diseased minds could invent and re-invent. The 'land that had nothing to do with the U.S.' was territory the U.S. had plundered for its oil for almost a hundred years.

The Kurds, asserted this astute philosopher and judge of human merit, were "no angels". This, of a people whose values and comportment set them aside and well above the norms for the Middle East, in their humane treatment and equality views of other ethnic and religious groups, in their recognition of equality between the sexes, in their well-ingrained recognition of human rights and their practise of good governance and concern for peoples' lives, extending protection to those persecuted like themselves by the region's tyrants.

The long-suffering Kurds who know intimately what ethnic cleansing and virulent hatred of themselves by their neighbours was capable of doing to the human spirit, acted in defiance of tribal and religious exclusion of others, extending the courtesy of consideration to those outside their group. "There's a lot of sand they [the protaganists, Turkey and the Kurds] can play with", Trump said dismissively. "It's possibly never going to be very stable."

"History will look upon you favourably if you get this done the right and humane way. It will look upon you forever as the devil if good things don't happen. Don't be a tough guy. Don't be a fool! I will call you later", he wrote companionably to his good friend and trading partner Recep Tayyip Erdogan. Who, it was later reported, deposited this very instructive, well-intentioned advice directly into the nearest trash disposal, and carried on with his intended decimation of the Kurdish Peoples Protection Units.

Trump is complacent in his studied belief that American "didn't need to worry about terrorists 7,000 miles away". His short attention-span and memory deficit was unable to dredge up the thought of the 9/11 conspirator-terrorists who came from that distance for the very particular purpose of informing the United States that there is no distance sufficient to leave that country with the illusion that it will remain an island of security from Medieval Islamist jihad. Trump, in any event, views himself as having engineered the downfall of Islamic State and he gives himself full credit.

His delusional belief in himself persuades him that the sacrifice of the only reliable fighting partner the U.S. had in Syria and Iraq battling the Islamic State terrorists with the assistance of American air cover were merely expendable mercenaries. What he has accomplished in dismissing America's allies so peremptorily with casual disregard for their safety and security, is to have advised his other allies in the Middle East -- Israel and Saudi Arabia come to mind -- that their reliance on U.S. honour under this administration, more egregiously failing than the previous one -- is sadly misplaced.
"[The agreement that pauses Turkey’s military operation will be focused on] those areas where the Turks had penetrated into northeast Syria."
"We use the word ceasefire, the Turks do not because it's not in the agreement. What we mean is, and we define this very carefully, a ceasefire is no forward movement of troops on the ground and no military action other than self-defense."
James Jeffrey, the US Special Envoy for Syria
The great man pronounced his interpretation of the 'spat' between Turkey and America's erstwhile allies in the battle against ISIL: "Sometimes you have to let them fight a little while… right? Sometimes you have to let them fight. It's like two kids in a lot, you got to let them fought [sic] and then you pull them apart." And when you do, lo and behold, an agreement that secures for Turkey its military objectives, ceding a swath of territory within Syrian borders, formerly a majority Kurdish autonomous enclave, "validating what Turkey did and allowing them to annex a portion of Syria and displace the Kurdish population", in the word of an anonymous senior U.S. official.
 
Donald J. Trump ✔ @realDonaldTrump
This is a great day for civilization. I am proud of the United States for sticking by me in following a necessary, but somewhat unconventional, path. People have been trying to make this “Deal” for many years. Millions of lives will be saved. Congratulations to ALL!
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posted by Pieface @ Friday, October 18, 2019

Saturday, December 22, 2018

Mice Cast Asunder the Plans of Men

"We had decided last week to launch a military incursion in the east of the Euphrates River. Our phone call with President Trump, along with contacts between our diplomats and security officials and statements by the United States, have led us to wait a little longer."
"[We would prefer to hold off] until we see on the ground the result of America's decision to withdraw from Syria [though delaying the operation should not be confused with its outright cancellation]."
"Of course this is not an open-ended waiting process."
"We don't have our eyes on anyone's land. Yet, our stance regarding any attack to originate from Syria is clear. We can make no concession on security. The ongoing incidents in Syria, both in their security and humanitarian respects, are of direct concern to our country."
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan

"[The Kurds of the YPG have] talked about maybe even releasing thousands of ISIS prisoners so they can use the men guarding them to help with the fight against Turkey, if that's what's going to come [though a YPG spokesman denies this]."
"The general concern — Britain, France and elsewhere in NATO — is that this U.S. troop withdrawal could lead ISIS to regroup and have a resurgence. It's lost most of its territory, but it has many supporters still lying low in both Syria and Iraq."
Peter Kenyon, reporter, National Public Radio 

 "What Turkey is going to do is unleash holy hell on the Kurds."
"In the eyes of Turkey, they're more of a threat than ISIS. So this decision is a disaster."
Sen. Lindsey Graham, Republican, South Carolina
President Donald Trump, left, talks to Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan as they tour the new NATO headquarters in Brussels, Belgium, July 11, 2018.
Tatyana Zenkovich/The Associated Press
"A major clue to understanding Trump’s unexpected action was provided by an unnamed U.S. official quoted by Reuters who said that the decision had come after the phone call between Trump and Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan on December 14. The official added, “Everything that has followed is implementing the agreement that was made in that call.” According to a senior Turkish official quoted by ABC, Trump told Erdogan during the call that “he was planning to pull U.S. troops out of Syria.” In fact, Trump’s move came as long-standing U.S.-Turkish differences over northern Syria had once again threatened to flare up into a major dispute between the two countries."
"On December 12, Erdogan had once again denounced U.S. military engagement with the Syrian Kurdish People’s Protection Units (YPG)—identified by Ankara as an integral part of the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK), which Turkey has been fighting for decades—in the context of the ongoing fight against the Islamic State under the umbrella of Syrian Democratic Forces. After registering his usual complaints about the provision of “20,000 truckloads and over 3,000 planeloads of military supplies” to YPG and the failure of the United States to implement the June roadmap the two countries had agreed to in June 2018 involving the departure of Syrian Kurdish elements from Manbij, west of the Euphrates, Erdogan had threatened to send Turkish troops into the area between the river and the Syrian-Iraqi border where U.S. forces were stationed “in a few days” to “cleanse it of terrorists.” Confirming that there would be “no hostility against U.S. soldiers in Syria,” Erdogan said, “in spite of everything, we continue to see the U.S. as a strategic ally with whom we can advance together in the future if we can agree on the right basis."
Bulent Aliriza, Director and Senior Associate, Turkey Project, CSIS (Center for Strategic & International Studies
No prior consultation with is national security team or allies and despite objections from everyone with a stake in the struggle against Islamic State in Iraq and the Levant, President Donald Trump made his decision to abandon the U.S. alliance in its combat strategy with the Syrian YPG and withdraw the two thousand U.S. troops and the American air cover mission in Syria against ISIL. This, according to American and Turkish officials, both speaking on condition of confidentiality and for obvious enough reasons.
 
The reversal that has the effect of ceding the entire area of that portion of the Middle East to Iran, Turkey, Hezbollah and Syria, took everyone by surprise, including the president's Cabinet, U.S. lawmakers and their international allies. None more so, however, than the Kurds for whom this will mean an all-out war with Turkey, not of their choosing, but which will have been imperiously imposed upon them by an Islamist dictator whose mission appears to be the entire eradication of Kurds from the territory; by lethal means, preferably. 

A telephone call between Trump and his Turkish counterpart on December 14 led to Trump agreeing with Recep Tayyip Erdogan that the United States need no longer linger in Syria, that Turkey was more than capable of wiping out what was left of ISIL, as though that constituted a swift mop-up operation of several hundred hold-outs. Lost in the conversation was that ISIL leaders had Turkey's backing and Turkey was a willing conduit for ISIL oil out of the 'caliphate'. Seemingly oblivious of the death sentence he would be imposing on loyal, courageous Kurds, Trump blithely announced the U.S. troop evacuation from Syria.

Defence Secretary Jim Mattis, along with several other ranked Cabinet members urgently sought to persuade Trump of the necessity to reverse his impulsive decision; at the very least to suspend it for the time being, but to no avail, leaving General Mattis little option but to tender his resignation for it was obvious there was nothing more he could do to protect his country and the world at large from the moral ravages being imposed upon it by a president he could no longer address as 'his' president and commander-in-chief.
Donald J. Trump ✔ @realDonaldTrump
....going to be there for three months, and that was seven years ago - we never left. When I became President, ISIS was going wild. Now ISIS is largely defeated and other local countries, including Turkey, should be able to easily take care of whatever remains. We’re coming home!
77.7K
Neither the U.S. State Department nor the Pentagon can be in much of a celebratory mood in the past week. The estimated tens of thousands of ISIL fighters remaining in Iraq and Syria and the continuing attacks they have mounted will be certain to result in a restoration of their influence in the region with the absence of an American military presence in Syria. A list of talking points had been prepared for Trump by members of his team; including Pompeo and Mattis; a list he disdained to use and simply ignored, particularly the note impelling Trump to compel Erdogan to back off his threats.

Where Trump on a previous occasion had convinced Erdogan that an attack on the Kurds should be shelved, no such advice was advanced on this occasion. U.S. Central Command chief General Joseph Votel on Wednesday informed his commanders in the field and their Kurdish allies of the stark and startling decision on the part of the President of the United States for whom the very concept of 'allies and courage and loyalty' appear to be completely alien.

Donald Trump shakes hands with Recep Tayyip Erdogan at the White House. Photographer: Andrew Harrer/Bloomberg

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posted by Pieface @ Saturday, December 22, 2018

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