The Seriousness of the START Situation

"[Vladimir Putin's decision on tactical weapons] followed the failure by Kyiv's allies to heed previous serious signals [from Moscow because of the] fundamental irresponsibility of Western elites before their people and international security."

"Now they will have to deal with changing realities."

"We hope that NATO officials will adequately assess the seriousness of the situation."

Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov, Moscow

The Russian Foreign Ministry initially said Moscow would keep notifying the U.S. about planned test launches of its ballistic missiles, but Ryabkov's statement reflected an abrupt change of course.  CBC

 

Russian President Vladimir Putin has decided that Moscow is no longer obligated via treaty to honour the United States' decision-making by trustfully alerting it through advance notice regarding Russian missile tests. This, at a time when the Russian military under Kremlin orders deployed mobile missile launchers in Siberia as a demonstration of Russia's massive nuclear capabilities a highlighted link to the invasion of Ukraine and the fortunes of a conflict that has left both countries in a veritable stalemate condition.

Russian news agencies carried Deputy Foreign Minister Ryabkov's remarks that all information exchanges under the START agreement with Washington have been halted by Moscow, completing the distancing of the two countries in their nuclear responsibility pacts following on the suspension of Russia's ongoing participation in the last remaining nuclear arms pact with the United States.

Data relating to the current state of both countries' nuclear forces -- up to the present routinely released at six month intervals complying with the treaty -- both parties also exchanged advance warnings of test launches. Notices of this type represent an essential element of strategic stability and have for decades. This cooperation allowed Russia and the United States to properly interpret each other's moves, making certain that neither would mistake a test launch for a missile attack.

Termination of missile test warnings represents another effort on Moscow's part to discourage the West from continuing to strengthen its support for Ukraine. Emphasizing Russia's massive nuclear arsenal is a most transparent threat, one occasioned by the fury of stalemate and the isolation imposed by the U.S. and NATO upon the Russian Federation.  Augmented by President Putin's announcement of tacticl nuclear weapons deployed to Belarus territory, as a regional trusted ally.

 

This photo made from video provided by the Russian Defense Ministry Press Service on Wednesday, March 29, 2023, shows a Yars missile launcher of the Russian armed forces being driven from a shelter in an undisclosed location in Russia. The Russian military on Wednesday launched drills of its strategic missile forces, deploying Yars mobile launchers in Siberia in a show of the country's massive nuclear capability amid the fighting in Ukraine. (Russian Defense Ministry Press Service via AP)

 

The New START treaty was suspended last month, with Mr. Putin stating that U.S. inspections of Russia's nuclear sites was unacceptable at a time when Washington and its NATO allies have committed to Moscow's defeat in Ukraine. While not withdrawing entirely from the pact, Moscow stated its intention to continue to respect caps on nuclear weapons set by the treaty.

 

 

To the present, until Ryabkov's statement, it was understood by the United States that Moscow intended to continue notifying the U.S. of planned test launches of ballistic missiles, now upset by an abrupt change in orders. 

 

Russian drills will see Yars mobile missile launchers manoeuvre across three regions of Siberia involving measures to conceal the deployment from foreign satellites and other intelligence assets. No mention from the Russian Defence Ministry was given of how long the drills would last, nor were any practice launches mentioned of the nuclear-tipped intercontinental ballistic Yars missile with its range of about 11,000 kilometers. The Yars missile represents the backbone of Russia's strategic missile forces.

The tactical nuclear weapons deployed in Belarus are useful on the battlefield with their relatively short range and considerably lower yield, in comparison with the long-range strategic missiles fitted with nuclear warheads capable of obliterating entire cities. This latest decision by President Putin follows repeated warning that Moscow is prepared to use "all available means" -- referring to its nuclear arsenal -- to fend off attacks on Russian territory.

A still image from video, released by the Russian Defence Ministry in October 2022, shows what is said to be a Yars intercontinental ballistic missile launched during an exercise at the Plesetsk Cosmodrome in Russia. (Russian Defence Ministry/Reuters)

A Pathological Vendetta Against Children

"There is video from the school that we are viewing now to try to learn exactly how all of this happened."

Don Aaron, police spokesperson

 

"In a tragic morning, Nashville joined the dreaded, long list of communities to experience school shooting."

"M heart goes out to the families of the victims. Our entire city stands with you."

Nashville Mayor John Cooper

 

"We have a manifesto, we have some writings that we're going over that pertain to this date, the actual incident."

"We have a map drawn out of how this was all going to take place."

“Our police officers have cried and are crying with Nashville and the world. I have cried and continue to cry and I have prayed for Nashville as well."

Metropolitan Nashville Police Chief John Drake

Monday marked yet another shooting atrocity in a school in the United States. It is unfathomable that disturbed minds are able to access firearms. It is beyond difficult to mentally ingest that anyone would set out deliberately to deprive children of their futures. To leave families in a state of permanent bereavement. To leave surviving children with the living memory of the fear and terror instilled in them by psychopaths who used automatic rifles to hunt down and kill children.

Two "assault-style" rifles along with a pistol in the hands of a woman who considered herself a man. A manly thing to do, taking lethal weapons into a school with the intention of murdering children and their adult protectors. Three nine-year olds and three adults in a virtual blink of an eye lost their lives at The Covenant School where several hundred children are educated from preschool through to the sixth grade.

All the sorrow and grieving revolves  around a 14-minute event that unfolded rapidly and violently by a mind vicious enough to plan every detail of the attack.The 28-year-old had emailed someone just before embarking on her fatal excursion, for she too died, just as she meant to. A mind in turmoil seeking death and the method of suicide carefully thought out; death by police fire. But to draw that police fire she would first kill six people. An obvious choice made by a diseased mind.

 

The attacker's body is shown lying on the ground after officers opened fire    Sky News

 

A video was in fact released a day later, from a body-worn camera. The six-minute video follows on an earlier video release. 28-year-old Audrey Elizabeth Hale smashed through the glass doors of the elementary school and made her way into the school where she had once been a student. She had carefully drawn a map of action with several entry points. This born female identified as transgender making use of the pronouns that have become formulaic in rejecting one's birth gender.

 

She murdered Evelyn Dieckhaus, Hallie Scruggs and William Kinney, three nine-year-old children. She murdered 51-year-old Cynthia Peak, 60-year-old Katherine Koonce, and 61-year-old Mike Hill. One woman, Ms. Peak, was a school volunteer, Mr. Hill a school custodian, and Katherine Koonce was the school head. None of them  could begin to imagine that before the day was over they would no longer be alive.

 

The second of the two videos cane from a camera worn by Officer Rex Engelbert. A woman greets police on their arrival: "The kids are all locked down, but we have two kids that we don't know where they are", she says then directing them to where people had heard gunshots, "Upstairs are a bunch of kids", she tells them. Rooms are searched, one by one by the three officers. Alarms are sounded in the school and one officer says, "It sounds like it's upstairs".

 

They enter a lobby area after climbing the stairs to the second floor. A barrage of gunfire follows. "Get your hands away from the gun", one officer orders. The video then shows the killer of children lying motionless on the floor. Her firearms were bought legally in the Nashville area. A search of her home saw a sawed-off shotgun, another shotgun and other evidence discovered.

"I doubt that there's anyone you can talk to who would even be able to answer why. It's not logical,"

"I'll never understand, it because it's not a logical thing to do. I'm very sad for the loss of my friend, and I'm very sad for the families and the loved ones of the victims."

"I'm very sad for her parents, because they lost their child." 

Anonymous High School friend

The Covenant School shooting victims (top row) Katherine Koonce, Mike Hill, Cynthia Peak, (bottom row) Evelyn Dieckhaus, Hallie Scruggs and William Kinney.   From The Covenant School/Covenant Presbyterian Church/Facebook/KMOV/Dieckhaus Family

Dividing a Nation

"[In Israel at the present time] judges are appointed by the president [an otherwise-ceremonial executive position] on the advice f the judicial selection committee, composed of nine members including three Supreme Court justices and two representatives of the Israel Bar Association."

"Given that Supreme Court appointments require the consent of seven members the legal profession maintains a de facto veto over the makeup of the court, a situation unique to Israel."

"The proposed legislation would turn the committee into an 11-member panel, six of which would be controlled by the governing coalition. The bill was amended earlier this week to give the government control over the first two Supreme Court appointments that come up during its tenure, but require the support of an opposition member for a third and both a judicial representative and an opposition MK for a fourth"

Jesse Kline, National Post

 

"We are on the path toward a dangerous collision in Israeli society. We are in the midst of a crisis that endangers the basic unity between us. Such a crisis requires us all to act responsibly."

"When there's an opportunity to avoid civil war through dialogue I, as prime minister, am taking a time-out for dialogue."

"[I remain determined to pass a judicial reform but in the interim we opt for] an attempt to achieve broad consensus."

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu

           

Israel's fifteen-member Supreme Court is free to serve until age 70. Given the notoriously short term governments thanks to the electoral system of proportional representation, and the number of political parties representing every facet of Israeli society, governments have a tendency to instability. When elections take place, the party receiving the most votes of a fractured total vote count representing all the competing parties with their partisan interests, must seek a coalition in support of a shared government to gain sufficient seats to govern.

In the instance of Benjamin Netanyahu's Likud party, with him as head having received the the most votes, alliances were made with right-wing parties, chief among them the ultra-orthodox. Prime Minister Netanyahu was minded in agreement with his government partners to make judicial reforms for the purpose of reasserting elected government authority in enacting legislation, often usurped by the unelected social-justice-focused Supreme Court. 

PM Netanyahu & Justice Minister Yariv Levin (Flash90)

The previous government and its coalition partners were focused on the left. In the last general election a majority of voters indicated they were intent on a change of government. Which was not hugely celebrated by the outgoing government whom the electorate had just 'fired' from office. They viewed the current government's move to amend the appointment capabilities of the judicial selection committee inconvenient to their perspective, in the process muting the authority taken by the Supreme Court to challenge the elected government.

Claiming that such a change would deleteriously affect the nature of Israel's democracy and neuter the Supreme Court, the opposition in the Knesset set about persuading their supporters among Israel's left wing that should this change take effect, their rights would be impacted and the country they love would be democracy-impaired, while the government in power would become increasingly autocratic. The protests began, with thousands and tens of thousands of Israelis taking to the streets in protest.

While Prime Minister Netanyahu sought repeatedly to reassure the protesters that Israel's democracy would remain unchanged, asking for patience, the opposition continued to incite people to remonstrate and the protests continued and grew with people expressing their vehement denial of the government to proceed with legislating the change it envisioned to deter the Supreme Court from its activist agenda, impairing government initiatives.

Before long, reservists in the Israel Defence Forces joined the protests, refusing to show up for duty. Then the pilots began their agitation, refusing as well to allow the government to proceed with its plans. Historically the Israeli Supreme Court played an important role in protecting the rights of Arab-Israeli citizens, of women, of non-Orthodox Jews and of the gay community. Now, thanks in part to the agitation caused by the Knesset opposition so recently tossed out of power, protesters believe this work of the Supreme Court would become imperiled.

 

There is also suspicion that forces outside the country have been involved in supporting and promoting the protests; specifically charges have been made that the U.S. State Department is involved. Infamously, during the Obama administration, in his earlier stint at government, Benjamin Netanyahu was treated with contempt and diplomatically insulted repeatedly. President Joe Biden, Barack Obama's successor in the Democratic Party, inherited all the anti-Netanyahu bias of his predecessor.

 

A Democratic-ruled United States is in no mind to see a right-wing Israeli government interacting with it. The situation in Israel has become seriously destabilizing. All the more so when members of its military, as professional an army as any of the best anywhere in the world, is facing mass insurrection. A nation surrounded by terrorist groups, funded as proxies by the Islamic Republic of Iran with its stated goal of destroying the Jewish state is not in a good place when it cannot function to its full professional capacity. 

 

Hamas and Hezbollah have both tested the waters of this sea-change in the professionalism of the IDF. Exploratory forays by each were apprehended but if the situation in Israel continues to deteriorate further, chaos will erupt, leaving the country vulnerable both to its own destabilizing hysteria with political/sectarian factions becoming ever more polarized, and from the exterior always prepared to take any advantage they can detect to pursue their agenda of violence.

With Monday's decision to explore further negotiations with the official Israeli opposition in an effort to cool down the fires of partisan outrage over a decision by the new government to bring the outsize influence of the Supreme Court into line with those of most other democratic nations of the world, the impasse must come to a mutually agreeable conclusion, one that will forestall further disintegration of civil discourse and continue imperilling the nation.

Israelis protest against Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's judicial overhaul plan outside the parliament in Jerusalem, March 27, 2023. (AP Photo/Ohad Zwigenberg)

Russian War Crimes in Ukraine -- The Language of Force

"An attempt to split part of the state away means an encroachment at the very existence of the state. Quite obviously, it warrants the use of any weapons. I hope our 'friends' across the ocean realize that."

"If Patriot or other weapons are delivered to the territory of Ukraine along with foreign experts, they certainly make legitimate targets, which must be destroyed."

"They are combatants, they are the enemies of our state and they must be destroyed."

“Honestly speaking, Ukraine is part of Russia. But due to geopolitical reasons and the course of history we had tolerated that we were living in separate quarters and had been forced to acknowledge those invented borders for a long time."

Dmitry Medvedev, former Russian president, now deputy head of Russia's Security Council

 

"Right now, residential areas where ordinary people and children live are being fired at."

"This must not become 'just another day' in Ukraine or anywhere else in the world. The world needs greater unity and determination to defeat Russian terror faster and protect lives."

"Every time someone tries to hear the world 'peace' in Moscow, another order is given there for such criminal strikes [against Ukraine's civilian population]."

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy

Onlookers watch smoke rise from the fire caused by missile debris falling in the courtyard of a residential building in the Sviatoshynskyi district   CNN

 

Civilians are being killed and wounded across Ukraine by long-range Russian bombardment. At the same time Kremlin official Dmitry Medvedev heralded the news that Russian forces were prepared to repell the anticipated Ukrainian counteroffensive scheduled for this spring. Last year Ukrainian authorities established hundreds of 'points of invincibility', in reality aid stations where residents of Donetsk province could have access to food, charge their cellphone and enjoy some warmth. 

A Russian missile struck an aid station in eastern Ukraine with predictable results. Russian attacks are replete with S300 anti-aircraft missiles, not aimed at military bases but directly at civilian enclaves. The civilians who were killed at the aid station were refugees. The winter artillery war continues with Russian forces  using air-launched missiles, exploding drones and sliding bombs in several regions. 

An overnight rocket and artillery barrage and airstrikes hit the town of Bilophillia in Sumy province in the northeastern region. While in southern Ukraine, Russian shelling in the city of Kherson killed and wounded civilians and as well in the town of Bilozerka just a day after President Zelenskyy had visited the region.

Rescuers carry a body from residential buildings destroyed by a Russian missile strike

 

With the arrival of warmer spring weather and new weapons in hand from the West, including tanks, Ukrainian forces are preparing for a counteroffensive meant to dislodge Russian troops from occupied areas of Ukraine. "Our General Staff is addressing all that", scoffed Medvedev; any Ukrainian attempt to recapture Crimea illegally annexed in 2014, could, he asserted, trigger a nuclear response from Moscow. 

This is reflective of Russia's security doctrine which envisions the use of its atomic arsenal responding to a nuclear attack or one with conventional weaponry threatening "the very existence of the Russian state". Western experts operating weapons like the U.S.-produced Patriot air defence missile system given to Ukraine could be targeted, suggested Medvedev.  Russia knows well that Ukrainian soldiers received training in the U.S. despite which Russian officials often allude to foreign instructors in Ukraine.

Medvedev revealed that Moscow may strategize to occupy a long strip of Ukrainian territory stretching all the way to the Polish border. Poland would not stand idly by, unperturbed at witnessing this kind of operation unfold, with no reaction. It is even so without this further kind of action, preparing for the type of scenario that would activate its own military into confronting Russian forces by committing to active combat alongside Ukraine.

Poland knows of a certainty that if Russia succeeds in its mission of eviscerating Ukraine and growing the territory of the Russian Federation accordingly, it would be next on Moscow's expansion agenda, and it has no intention of allowing itself to become another appendage of Russian territorial conquest in a renewal of the Soviet Union.

"Our relations with the West are already worse than they have ever been in history. [German Justice Minister Marco Buschmann asserting Putin would be arrested in the ICC warrant should he visit Germany, a case in point.]"

“Let’s imagine ... the leader of a nuclear power visits the territory of Germany and is arrested. [It would amount to a declaration of war against Russia.] In this case, our assets will fly to hit the Bundestag, the chancellor’s office and so on."

“I have no illusions that we could communicate with them [Western politicians] again any time soon. It makes no sense to negotiate with certain countries and blocs — they only understand the language of force."

Dmitry Medvedev

Three Russian rockets launched against Ukraine from Russia's Belgorod region are seen at dawn in Kharkiv, Ukraine   CNN

Canadian Armed Forces Culture Change

The Minister’s Advisory Panel was created in December 2020 with a clear mandate to seek out the policies, processes and practices that enable systemic racism and discrimination in the Department of National Defence (DND) and Canadian Armed Forces (CAF) and provide advice on how to eliminate them from our institution. Their work has focused on Anti-Indigenous and Anti-Black Racism, LGBTQ2+ Prejudice, Gender Bias, White Supremacy, Antisemitism, Islamophobia, and discrimination against people with disabilities.

News Release: Government of Canada -- April 25, 2022 – Ottawa – National Defence / Canadian Armed Forces

"[Allyship is defined as an] active, consistent and arduous practice of unlearning and re-evaluating, in which a person in a position of privilege and power seeks to operate in solidarity with a marginal group."

"[Colour-blindness, or refusing to see race, according to the lexicon, can] foster the systematic denial of racial subordination."

"[White is a] social colour [that comes with] unearned power, benefits, advantages."

"White fragility [is ] a state in which even a minimum amount of racial stress becomes intolerable [for white people] , triggering a range of defensive moves ... such as anger, fear and guilt, and behaviours such as argumentation, silence and leaving the stress-inducing situation."

Department of National Defence, Canada, Anti-Racism Toolkit

Defence Minister Anita Anand speaks to military personnel after getting a tour of a CC 177 Globemaster aircraft at Canadian Forces Base Trenton, in Trenton, Ont., April 14, 2022. THE CANADIAN PRESS/Christopher Katsarov

 

Under the Minister of National Defence, Anita Anand, in the Liberal-progressive government of Prime Minister Justin Trudeau -- he of women's liberation and LGBTQ-2, post-national credentials -- a radical "culture change" is shaking up the Department of National Defence. In December the department hosted a talk by a social justice studies professor claiming Canada is "completely infected" by white supremacy. In January a grant was awarded to a political science professor and fellow in Black excellency to study white supremacy in the Canadian military. 

Under the astute guardianship of Minister Anand the Canadian service members are to be taught all about diversity, equity and inclusion. National Defence's director of anti-racism implementation is the proud producer of the new culture toolkit. The current interim director's interests includes promotion of an "e-binder" containing profiles of Black public servants as a guide in hiring managers, and to find people to promote (diversity targets mandated in the federal government). 

Positive discrimination that imposes constraints on one group held to be privileged and 'entitled', is the essence of anti-racism while awarding and rewarding another group to level out the playing field, enabling the formerly unprivileged and unentitled to occupy positions now denied to the former. The post of the anti-racism director is to support "organizational cultural evolution by elevating the defence team members' awareness and understanding of racial equity issues through strategic communication tactics, resources, training and tools".

The lexicon guide of the Department's anti-racism toolkit lists 122 terms relating to gender, race and DEI -- all burdened with a heavy social justice perspective. "Equality" is defined as treatment of people that "brings about an equality of results". Believing in equality but not equity is racist. Decolonization "requires non-Indignous individuals, governments, institutions and organizations to assist Indigenous peoples to reclaim all that was taken from them".

A series of instructions is presented for military servicepeople to preach to one another about DEI and anti-racism in the toolkit's "Guide to courageous conversations on racism and discrimination". Such as the practice of discrimination against groups considered "privileged" in the opinion of critical race theorists. Service members are instructed to make use of the "Brave Framework", essentially a formula for holding racial struggle sessions.

 

At every opportunity, the Trudeau Liberals are enabling the woke to further divide Canadians and create an unbridgeable chasm between progressive and conservative-minded people. Pictured: Prime Minister Justin Trudeau takes a knee for George Floyd during a rally in Ottawa, June 5, 2020. Photo credit: The Canadian Press/Sean Kilpatrick

 

"Anti-racism" tips and tools in the toolkit includes a section interpreting the Employment Equity Act that requires every federal department and any company wishing to bid on big federal contracts to honour diversity targets (quotas) for the workplace. This leads inevitably to de-prioritizing white or male applicants to the military for hiring. Race- and gender-specific job postings in other federal departments undergo similar treatment. Valid criticism of the law is dismissed in the toolkit as a "myth".

An anti-racism learning hub has been launched as well by the Defence Department, linked to a number of resources that stress ideology, and direct defence staff to DEI training materials. Which include the Harvard Implicit Association Test, a test of a type that supposedly measures subconscious bias. What is now a set-piece in the Department of Defence is commonplace in the federal public service. The Canada School of Public Service provides a "standardized curriculum" for public servants. The top-down New Canada.

Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau visits Canadian troops at the Adazi military base in Latvia, March 8, 2022.(Ints Kalnins/Reuters

The Doomed Republic of Haiti

"We believe the security and humanitarian situation in Haiti is worsening and the situation on the ground will not improve without armed assistance from international partners."

UN National Security Council 

"Kidnappings are rampant."

"The sexual violence that is taking place in Haiti is at levels never seen before -- and rarely seen in any society."

Helen La Lime, special representative, UN secretary-General for Haiti

Police fire tear gas at protesters demanding the resignation of Haiti's prime minister, Ariel Henry, in Port-au-Prince on Monday. (Ralph Tedy Erol/Reuters)

 

What is it about Haiti? A completely failed state. From the time of Papa 'Doc' Duvalier to the present. The Island of Hispaniola is shared between the Republic of Haiti (west) and the Dominican Republic (east). They are as unalike in their societal values, culture and makeup, politics and orderly civilized life as it possible to be. Destabilized, rampant crime and an inability of any government to bring order to the country, it requires the intervention now and again of the international community to bring a level of stability to bear. Yet it always seems to revert in time to yet another version of dystopian disorder. 

Five months ago its interim prime minister Ariel Henry pleaded for the deployment of a "specialized armed force" from outside the country to restore order in the country reeling from one crisis to another. Most Haitians want no intervention despite the critical nature of the failing state, in memory of its long history of foreign interventions. But its current struggle with gang violence, civil and political unrest and a cholera resurgence leaves it in a desperate state.

Both the United Nations and the United States support immediate rescue of the country through a brief intervention to restore calm and the authority of the government. Nothing has yet emerged, however, despite good intentions and the country is left to stagger from one misery to another with no end in sight. 2023 has seen 531 people killed, 300 wounded, 277 kidnapped in gang-related violence. In the first half of March alone 208 people died, 154 were wounded, 301 kidnapped.

Most of these unsettling violent episodes take place in the capital, Port-au--Prince. Most victims in the first half of March were killed or injured by snipers randomly shooting at people in their homes or out on the streets. According to analysts, allies of the United States remain hesitant to risk lives in a logistically complicated mission requiring an unknown but significant amount of time and resources, not to mention complexity.

 

Many Haitians are wary of International forces. Jaime Razuri/AFP via Getty Images)

 

"You don't go there for three months or six months. You will go there for at least a couple of years", said Gilles Rivard, a former Canadian ambassador to Haiti who has advised the foreign ministry on UN-led peacekeeping missions. Haiti's presidency has been vacant since the 2021 assassination of Juvenal Moise. The national government has no democratically elected officials in the absence of elections. 

Gang violence linked to drug-running and other criminal activities as the violence has gone deeper into more neighbourhoods. Haitian police struggle with high rates of attrition, outnumbered and outgunned by the gangs. Some in Haiti fear an outside force to bring order to the country would support interim President Henry's retention of his temporary post, a deeply unpopular appointee whose claim to power is viewed as illegitimate.

Some Haitians take a dim view of the international response to date as security conditions deteriorate. When two navy ships were deployed by Canada to patrol Haitian waters in February, Le Nouvelliste, the largest newspaper in Haiti, published a front-page cartoon showing a bandit holding a gun in one hand, a man upside down in the other ... shaking him down as he shrugs off the ships.

A Haitian historian, Georges Michel, who contributed in writing the nation's 1987 constitution, remarked that some measures taken by the international community have been well-intentioned, but too late. What will save this West Indies nation from itself?

Members of the Haitian diaspora as well as faith and human rights leaders protest outside the White House to demand the Biden administration stop supporting Haiti's government on Oct. 9 in Washington. Shannon Finney/Getty Images for Beyond Borders

Alliances of Useful Expedience

"The scope, scale and complexity of China-Russia cooperation has continued to expand based on a confluence of shared interests and ambitions rooted in competition with the West."

"Both China and Russia view their recent history as second-tier powers as an aberration in their otherwise long history as Great Powers."

"[The two countries' burgeoning relationship suggests that they are militarily] united, powerful adversaries."

Redacted Department of National Defence internal document, May 2021 -- Ottawa

"There very clearly are limitations to their friendship. It's kind of like watching two teenagers that have different views of their dating."

"One says 'We're in it for life', and the other says 'We'll see  how long it goes'."

"From a Chinese perspective, this [Ukraine] war is really quite dangerous."

Professor Arne Kislenko, international relations, Toronto Metropolitan University

Russian President Vladimir Putin and Chinese President Xi Jinping meet in February 2022. Sputnik/Aleksey Druzhinin/Reuters

Consolidating those ties appeared to be the reason for Chinese President Xi Jinping's flight to Moscow to visit with Vladimir Putin, the newly-indicted Russian President. Prior to Russia's invasion of Ukraine on February 24 of 2022, the leaders spoke of a friendship between them personally and their countries "with no limits".  The newly-revealed briefing note for the assistant deputy minister for National Defence in Canada market secret, spoke of an existing bond a year prior to that declaration.

Professor Kislenko from his perch in academia as a professor of international relations deems the partnership a limited one from China's perspective. He holds that Beijing may be interested in assisting Russia's economy through increased energy imports and to provide some empathy for Russia's growing isolation on the world stage resulting from its invasion of Ukraine and subsequent actions defying international standards of sovereignty and war protocols, but actually providing munitions to Moscow would not be in China's interests.

Were Beijing to decide to send along arms, it could anticipate a backlash from the very Western countries that support its export economy and what is bad for business is bad for China.  Similarly, President Xi may view benefit for China in brokering a peace agreement between Russia and Ukraine, on the heels of  his successful push for detente between Iran and Saudi Arabia. The kind of diplomatic one-upsmanship that leaves the U.S. in the diplomatic dustbin. A satisfying turn of events for Beijing.

Not all that long ago China and Russia were bitterly opposed when in 1961 the Sino-Soviet split occurred and the two rivalled one another for domination in the global movement of communism leading to a border skirmish in 1969 that came close to an all-out conflict. At some future date yet another border disagreement could sour relations between the two when the country with the largest population on Earth begins to push further and more Han Chinese settle in Russia's sparsely-populated Siberia.

 

Since the end of the Cold War a growing trade in arms and energy led to a strategic partnership in the "political, economic and military spheres", noted the briefing note. With shared great-power ambitions they have each other for moral support as both face sanctions and censure for actions such as Russia's 2014 annexation of Crimea and China's "political assertiveness and military intimidation", according to the document.

 

At the United Nations their political cooperation is "global in scope" where they both vote and veto in close alignment. The Ukraine war and Russia's censure and isolation has in fact, been a boon to China in accessing more oil and gas from Russia at reduced prices, while giving Russia the finances it requires to prosecute the war. Because of China's interest in the increasingly accessible Arctic as a result of climate change, its investment aids Moscow to build infrastructure there, allowing Beijing a presence in the region.

All this and more, according to the document sends "geopolitical signals to the West that they face united, powerful adversaries". The 2019 announcement that Russia is helping Beijing build a strategic missile early-warning system -- generally the reserve of Great Powers -- further underscores their increasing level of co-operation at the strategic level."

They appear also to be moving toward "cooperative military activity in the Arctic". The National Defence experts' analysis posits China and Russia acting together as a combined challenge for the West. In tandem, in their spheres of influence, both represent a duo practising aggressive territorial ambitions; China with Hong Kong and Taiwan, claiming as its territory disputed areas between its near geographic neighbours, and Russia eyeing Eastern Europe in its 'near abroad', after the Ukraine campaign.

"At the invitation of President Vladimir Putin, I will soon pay a state visit to the Russian Federation. Russia was the first country I visited after I was elected President ten years ago. Over the past decade, I have made eight visits to Russia. I came each time with high expectations and returned with fruitful results, opening a new chapter for China-Russia relations together with President Putin."

"China and Russia are each other’s biggest neighbor and comprehensive strategic partner of coordination. We are both major countries in the world and permanent members of the UN Security Council. Both countries uphold an independent foreign policy and see our relationship as a high priority in our diplomacy."

"There is a clear historical logic and strong internal driving force for the growth of China-Russia relations. Over the past ten years, we have come a long way in our wide-ranging cooperation and made significant strides into the new era."

Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the People's Republic of China

Putin again claimed to Xi that he is "always open to the negotiation process," despite his repeated refusal to engage with Kyiv on a withdrawal from Ukrainian land. VGTRK

Interference in Canada by the People's Republic of China

 "The message of Li Kequing was 'Don't forget the motherland -- bring back technology, bring back investment. It was like he was talking to Chinese nationals. China doesn't care about foreign citizenship."

"I kept telling [federal officials] 'You have to be tough, you have to be firm.' This is the only language that China understands. If you don't push back, they will just occupy more and more ground."

"At the beginning of the crisis with Meng Wanzhou I gave interviews to Canadian media in Mandarin."

"I was struck because all the questions and the viewpoints were those of Beijing. They didn't know the Canadian position. We were the bad guys -- 'Why had we done this'?"

"[Chinese officials] are quite satisfied with their interference activities. They have had good results."

Guy Saint-Jacques, former Canadian ambassador to Beijing

"It could be to silence dissent it could be silence a community, it could be to silence any kind of discussion or talk seen as negative to China's interests."

"If you can drive a wedge between Canada and its allies and have Canada get into spats or conflicts with the United States, that could create dissent and chaos."

"You could be talking about a broader, long-term strategy to drive Canada away from the United States."

Dennis Molinario, former intelligence analyst, Ontario Technical University professor

The Canadian public has been apprised of the failure of the Liberal government of Justin Trudeau to protect itself from Chinese interference in Canadian elections. Intelligence was leaked by Canada's spy agency to the press indicating that the prime minister had been briefed on numerous occasions of the situation where Beijing has applied pressure on Chinese-Canadians to reject political candidates for Parliament with anti-Beijing attitudes. 

 

Prime Minister Justin Trudeau speaks during a news conference on Parliament Hill in Ottawa on Monday, March 6, 2023. Trudeau is under heavy pressure to order a public inquiry into reports of foreign interference in Canada's elections. (Sean Kilpatrick/The Canadian Press)

 

In actual fact, according to the data revealed and names named, pro-Beijing contacts in Canada had funded Beijing-friendly candidates in their election campaigns for public office, funding that was later restored to them by Beijing. The result being that in both provincial and federal ridings candidates were elected to sit as Members of Parliament whose first interests are to speak for China in the House of Commons and the provincial legislatures.

Canada has long been targeted by Beijing seeking to infiltrate academia, politics, science and technology and corporate business enterprises. Both for influence and for the opportunity to secure any and all government and private industry political and trade secrets. Canada does not, needless to say, represent China's sole foreign interest. Beijing has a vast influence and interference strategy powered by the Chinese Communist Party's United Front Work Department, documented by academics and think-tanks.

Australian researcher, Jichang Lulu detailed in a 2019 paper how a China "friendship group" in the European Parliament was a conduit for party influence, assisting in engineering "a growing global consensus on the legitimacy of the party's totalitarian governance". The moulding of a more positive image of China as well as neutralizing Beijing's enemies, according to analysts, represents one of China's goals in Canada. Enemies of China are described by Beijing as practising 'five poisons'.

The five are comprised of activities revolving around Tibetan independence by advocates, the Uyghurs in the Xinjiang region of China, the Falun Gong, Taiwan and pro-democracy activists in mainland China. In 2020 an employee of the now-defunct branch of the Confucius Institute funded by China at McMaster University informed of how she and other teachers were given instructions to speak to Canadian students of Tibet's 'liberation' by China and that Taiwan was an integral part of the People's Republic -- both assertions central to the Chinese Communist Party.

 

Prime Minister Justin Trudeau responds to questions from Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre about reports of campaign donations funnelled from Beijing. Trudeau said it's ‘unfortunate and despicable’ to question any MP’s ‘loyalty to Canada.   CBC

 

Chinese Canadians informed former ambassador Saint-Jacques that they feared to speak out themselves against the People's Republic lest they place relatives and friends back in China in jeopardy through repercussions that Beijing uses as threats to keep its critics in line. In turn they were grateful to him for his tough stance in revealing China's manoeuvres abroad. Critics of China claim there is little resistance to Beijing in its efforts to neutralize negative voices in Canada.

Practitioners of Falun Gong, China democracy proponents and minorities such as Tibetans and Uyghurs complained for years of harassment and intimidation by China. Amnesty International spearheaded a detailed report on interviews with those China has threatened, yet the federal government consistently resisted calls to have a system installed or police units to respond to such complaints.

Chinese police, it was recently revealed, have themselves set up a number of "service stations" in Canada, along with other countries, including the United States, which a Spanish human-rights watchdog explained were used to intimidate critics of the regime. Once this became public knowledge the federal police began to investigate the extraordinary presence of foreign police setting up shop and interfering with Canadian citizens of Chinese descent.

Beijing has long been involved in siphoning technological and other intellectual property out of Canada. A scientist fired from the National Microbiology Laboratory in Winnipeg who was escorted along with her husband who also worked at the Lab, out of the complex, and later fired, was named on patents in China for discoveries related to  her work as a federal civil servant in Canada. She had been discovered to have worked closely with a People's Liberation Army general. The federal government refused to release to Parliament details of the situation around the reason for the firing.

A United Front Work Department manual notes the number of politicians of Chinese descent elected in Toronto had almost doubled between 2003 and 2006, stating that officials should "aim to work with" those politicians. A concept  called "huaren canzheng" to encourage sympathetic ethnic Chinese to become actively involved in the electoral process is pushed by the United Front. Australian academic and researcher on Chinese interference, Clive Hamilton, wrote that Canada is at the forefront of the initiative. Understandably, since the Liberal government has always been warm to Chinese interference.

Academics such as Anne-Marie Brady of New  Zealand, who study the United Front Work Department explain it often works through friendly community and business groups. But it seems on the evidence of the last few years that Beijing's often clumsy attempts to increase its influence in Canada has resulted in a public that has become wary and resentful of its interference. The percentage of Canadians viewing 

China favourably has plummeted to record lows, according to a recent Angus Reid Poll. 

"It's a bit of a double-edged sword. What's actually happened is possibly the reverse of what the PRC was expecting", noted Mr. Molinaro. Mr. Saint-Jacques, however remains to be convinced, citing the fact that the government of Canada succumbed only under sustained opposition and media pressure to agree to look at a foreign agent registry to be established. The government of Justin Trudeau had kept under wraps continued warnings from the Canadian Security Intelligence Service related to election interference.

China has succeeded however, on another front. Beijing managed to deeply infiltrate the Chinese-Canadian community whose ethnic-language media is dominated by pro-China outlets. It is a community starkly divided, polarized by its reaction to a China that many distrust and many others support. A politically, socially fractured Chinese-Canadian community, mostly loyal to Canada, feeling themselves unprotected by their own government from the stealthy, steady predations of their totalitarian country of origin.

CSIS Canada

@csiscanada

"CSIS continues to observe increasing foreign interference activity by state actors, including the People’s Republic of China (PRC). Given the nature of today’s geopolitical environment, these activities will almost certainly intensify."