Thursday, March 16, 2023

Adversarial Risks Opposing a Blood-spattered Tyranny

 

Two men in dark, long clothes stand near a military jet on a runway. One holds a chalice while the other nearer the aircraft extends a holy water sprinkler, or aspergillum.
A Russian orthodox priest blesses an SU-27 fighter jet on the airfield of Belbek military airport outside Sevastopol, Crimea, on Nov. 26, 2014. (Yuriy Lashov/AFP/Getty Images)
 
"[The MQ-9 aircraft was] conducting routine operations in international airspace when it was intercepted and hit by a Russian aircraft, resulting in a crash and complete loss of the MQ-9."
"In fact, this unsafe and unprofessional act by the Russians nearly caused both aircraft to crash."
U.S. Air Force General James B. Hecker, commander, U.S. Air Forces Europe

"If the message is that they want to deter or dissuade us from flying, and operating in international airspace, over the Black Sea, then that message will fail. That is not going to happen."
"We're going to continue to fly and operate in international airspace over international waters."
"The Black Sea belongs to no one nation."
"[U.S. State Department officials would be speaking directly with their Russian counterparts and] expressing our concerns over this unsafe and unprofessional intercept."
White House National Security spokesman John Kirby

"These aggressive actions  by Russian aircrew are dangerous and could lead to miscalculation and unintended escalation."
U.S. European Command

"Probably my biggest worry both there and in the Pacific is an aggressive Russia or China pilot or vessel captain, or something gets too close, doesn't realize where they are, and causes a collision."
General David Berger, commandant, Marine Corps
Map showing the areas under Russian and Ukrainian control in the south of the country..
 
Russia has scattered itself from the Arctic where it is refurbishing old Soviet-era, Cold War military posts in preparation for claiming disputed sections of the sea floor. It is deployed in Syria, aiding Syrian President Bashar al Assad in destroying the lives of Syrian-Sunni opponents of the regime, by aerial bombing including the bombing of schools, hospitals and civil infrastructure, just as it has in Ukraine. Russia's cozy fraternal agreement with Beijing with its raw territorial ambitions reflected in Russia's and their collegial relations with Iran present the world at large with a dangerous triumvirate bent on upending the civilized world order.

What all these outlier nations have in common is an arrogant sense of entitlement to confront an orderly world system where national boundaries and sovereignty are respected, along with a willingness to use barbaric-order bullying to squelch any efforts by countries fearing they are on the verge of takeover, to present a credibly effective deterrence in their own interests to preserve their autonomy from the predations of the three.

And all three enjoy needling their opponents from time to time, confronting them in international waters or air spaces to illegally push the limits of toleration in aggravated assaults. This week a Russian fighter jet deliberately harassed, then struck the propeller of an American surveillance drone flying over international waters in the Black Sea. A brazen "violation of international law" leading to American forces left with no option but to bring down the unmanned aerial vehicle, destroyed.

This is Cold War tactics reborn; an American aircraft in international airspace brought down as a result of a Russian warplane with malice aforethought destroying its flight integrity in a blatant show of contempt. The aftermath, tinged with disbelief at the needless risk to both diplomacy and manned aircraft was exasperation with a reckless escapade, one that was certain to be celebrated in the Kremlin, but which occasioned the U.S. to summon the Russian ambassador to make it abundantly clear the episode was regarded as the height of military stupidity.
 
Former U.S. marine Elliot Ackerman says the length of time Russia devoted to following a U.S. drone over the Black Sea and the way he believes the drone was brought down shows that Russia is ready to engage in 'escalatory activities.
 
The U.S. European Command issued a statement that two Russian Su-27 fighter jets "conducted an unsafe and unprofessional intercept" of a drone operating within international airspace. One of the Russian fighters "struck the propeller of the MQ-9, causing American forces no option but to bring the drone down in international waters". Two Su-27s prior to the collision, dumped fuel on and flew in front of the MQ-9 several times in "a reckless environmentally unsound and unprofessional manner" read a statement from Stuttgart, Germany.

"This incident demonstrates a lack of competence in addition to being unsafe and unprofessional", the statement concluded. Moscow failed to respond other than its repeated concerns respecting U.S. intelligence flights close to the Crimean Peninsula, annexed from Ukraine in 2014. According to the Kremlin, by providing weapons to Ukraine and sharing intelligence information with Kyiv, the United States and its allies effectively became engaged in the conflict. 

Russian President Vladimir Putin during a meeting with workers at a helicopter factory in southern Siberia the very day of the drone bring-down, again cast the conflict in Ukraine as a matter that Russia considers to be existential; unlike the West, seeking to advance its geopolitical clout, Russia is fighting for its existence as a state. "For us it's not a geopolitical task. It's the task of survival of Russian statehood and the creation of conditions for the future development of our country", he told the assembled workers.

Russia's future, in other words, lies in taking every and all opportunities to expand its geographical holdings. Its territorial ambitions to erase the sovereign borders of surrounding nations to absorb them into the greater Russian Federation is an old imperial, hegemonic focus that Russia takes very seriously as its divine right. Its invasion of Ukraine for the purpose of claiming Ukraine's territory as its own is an 'internal' affair, not an event that concerns the broader European community, much less the United States of America.

MQ-9 Reaper (file picture)
Reaper drones are full-size aircraft designed for reconnaissance and surveillance   Getty Images

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Monday, December 26, 2016

Searching for the Cause . . . .

The Kremlin says the experienced pilot could have been to blame for the deadly crash
The Kremlin says the experienced pilot could have been to blame for the deadly crash : East2WestNews
"Possible malfunctions . . . certainly wouldn't have prevented the crew from reporting them."
Vitaly Andreyev, former senior Russian air traffic controller

"We will conduct a thorough investigation into the reasons and will do everything to support the victims' families."
Russian President Vladimir Putin
Source: YEKATERINA SHTUKINA/AFP/Getty Images
Now, there's an uncomfortable place to be for the Russian authorities. It is tantalizing in a sense to blame terrorism for yet another Russian air disaster when a previous one with a Russian airliner taking off from Sinai really did result from an explosive device claimed by Islamic State jihadists. If there was a responsible target, some shadowy group to blame for a viciously malevolent act of sabotage it might somewhat ease the pain of this dreadful loss of 92 Russian lives, many of them people of official substance.

On the other hand, the dreadful pain of the loss is there, yet another trauma for the Russian people to bear and the administration to bear up under. Along with the haunting reality of a previous 17 major Tu-154 plane crashes responsible for killing over 1,760 people. Most of which have been attributed to human error, and others to technical malfunctions. That's a lot of dead people. That's a lot of plane crashes attributable to one plane. Designed, engineered and manufactured in Russia.

Russia prides itself on its engineering and manufacturing capabilities of technologically advanced weaponry. Russian President Vladimir Putin boasted only a few days ago of the technological feats of engineering and manufacturing that Russia has perfected, that its military is now second to none, prepared and capable of responding to any threat, conventional or nuclear. If the Kremlin could identify an attack by terrorists having caused the latest plane to disintegrate with all aboard sacrificed, anguish could be directed there.

But Russian failed technology? Russian pilots not up to the job of flying Russian planes safely? Unthinkable! The three-engine airliner was designed fifty years ago. Over one thousand were built, and used throughout Russia and worldwide. The Tu-154 that crashed on Sunday was built in 1983 and tested in factory check-ups with maintenance carried out in 2014 and only months earlier in 2016, according to the Defence Ministry.

Members of the Aleksandrov Song and Dance Ensemble of the Russian Army perform at the concert marking the Day of the Union State at the 25th International Art Festival Slavonic Bazaar in Vitebsk. (File)
Members of the Aleksandrov Song and Dance Ensemble of the Russian Army perform at the concert marking the Day of the Union State at the 25th International Art Festival Slavonic Bazaar in Vitebsk. (File)  © Sputnik/ Viktor Tolochko
Security in Sochi, according to Russian authorities is tight. It is, after all, where Vladimir Putin had a palace built for himself nearby, where he is able to entertain foreign leaders. Which hasn't stopped murmurs of dissent that the crew failed to report any type of technical malfunction. And that the fact that the plane itself disintegrated, the parts flying off in all directions appeared consonant with an explosion. And the ongoing search covers a massive ten square kilometres.

For all the technical advances that Mr. Putin is so proud of, the plane's flight records had no radio beacons for locating purposes. A critical oversight. One might imagine more care would be taken to preserve the lives of so many people, 84 passengers and eight crew members. Not just any passengers but 60 members of the famed Red Army chorus heading to Syria to perform for Russian troops. Among the passengers, nine journalists and a Russian doctor honoured for her war zone ministrations.

The crash into the Black Sea took place two minutes after takeoff, and weather could not have been a factor. Over three thousand rescue workers from 32 ships have been tasked in a futile rescue attempt because there was no one to be rescued. Eleven intact bodies initially recovered, and plenty of body parts; death was likely instantaneous for all aboard. Helicopters, drones and submersibles all responding to the need for action, to retrieve bodies and debris.

A search-and-rescue operation begins after a Russian Defense Ministry plane, with at least 92 people aboard, crashed into the Black Sea after taking off from the city of Sochi on Dec. 25.
A search-and-rescue operation begins after a Russian Defense Ministry plane, with at least 92 people aboard, crashed into the Black Sea after taking off from the city of Sochi on Dec. 25. Artur Lebedev/TASS/ZUMA Press

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