Putin: "Truth and Justice are on our Side"

Russian service members at the Victory Day parade in Moscow on Friday.  Credit...Alexander Zemlianichenko/Associated Press

"Truth and justice are on our side."

"The whole country, society, people support the participants of the special military operations."

"[Their determination and bravery has] brought us only victory."

Russian President Vladimir Putin

 

"The presence of world leaders demonstrated that Western efforts to isolate him [Putin] and defeat Russia have failed."

"It is positioning of Russia as an important part of the world."

Tatiana Stanovaya, senior fellow, Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center

Military vehicles, including some of Russia’s armored vehicles used in its invasion of Ukraine, were on display during the parade.  Credit...Kirill Kudryavtsev/Agence France-Presse — Getty Images

On Friday, Russian tanks, missiles and drones rumbled their way grandly through Red Square at the annual Victory Day parade to celebrate the surrender of Nazi Germany in the Second World War. Some two dozen world leaders joined Russia's President, emphasizing a victory for Vladimir Putin, whom Western Europe, North America and the 'free world' of democratic nations have sanctioned over his fullscale military invasion of Ukraine which he still labels a 'special military operation'.

 

The presence of those world leaders signify that Mr. Putin's isolation is not quite as universal as it should be, as evidenced by the kind of support that disappoints those who support Ukraine, and delights countries like Iran, China and North Korea. In the years immediately following the invasion, the yearly Victory Day celebration was a more muted affair, and Mr. Putin must surely have felt a little lonely surveying it on his own.

 

Reuters

 

This year's 80th anniversary has seen Chinese President Xi Jinping, Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, and the leaders of Slovakia, Serbia, Egypt, Vietnam, Venezuela and others representing Russian-friendly countries to Moscow's most solemn commemoration. In the leadup to the event, Putin projected himself as a confident, respected global leader near to completion of his defeat of Ukraine. For him, there is comfort in the distance that has emerged between Europe, the United States and Ukraine.

 

Iskander ballistic missiles, Russian drones, Tornado-S multiple rocket launchers and TOS-2 Tosochka heavy flame-thrower systems -- all of which have been used in the war against Ukraine -- were on display at the parade. With them rolled the Russian Yars nuclear-capable intercontinental ballistic missile.

 

Sitting beside Xi during the event, Putin often leaned over to speak with his guest, through an interpreter. Following the parade, Putin shook hands with Russian servicemen who fought in the war along with foreign military officers, all of whom saluted him, including a group of senior military officials from North Korea. North Korean special forces have been fighting with Russia to drive the Ukrainian military out of southern Russia's Kursk region.

 

Putin hugs a North Korean officer on Red Square  Ria Novosti

 

While Russia and its allies watched the march-through on Red Square, a group of European foreign ministers were in Ukraine to sign off on a special tribunal to prosecute high-level Russian officials for their aggressive crimes against Ukraine. Foreign ministers from France, Germany and Britain visited Lviv, to formally endorse the tribunal to be set up by the Council of Europe human rights watchdog.

 

The tribunal gained endorsement of 37 states, including most E.U. countries, Britain, Canada and Norway. While Washington had been involved in tribunal talks, under Trump the United States has withdrawn its presence on the tribunal.  

Security precautions in Moscow were high following a number of Ukrainian drone attacks earlier in the week which caused massive disruption at airports. Mobile internet had been cut around the parade area to foil further attacks and sniper teams were to be seen from the Kremlin roof and GUM shopping centre, overlooking Red Square. The Kremlin now equates Ukraine to the Nazis of the Second World War.

 

Members of the Chinese army took part in the parade   Ria Novosti Handout

"Speculations and Gossip"

"Putin is orchestrating a purge to capitalize on the coup, which in my intelligence assessment was a false flag operation."

"He is continuing to advance the narrative that he is the one and only strong leader who is able to crush all the traitors, squash the mutiny and save Mother Russia — this is in preparation for his 2024 re-election run."

"He is consolidating power even further, ensuring he is only surrounded by loyalists."

"General Armageddon [Sirovikin] is arrested and Gen. Gerasimov, of the holders of Putin’s three nuclear footballs is missing — a threatening situation."

"Until Ukraine is crushed by Russia and Putin gets to keep Crimea and the provinces he has annexed, no one will sleep safely."

"This is what Putin wants the world to know."

Former U.S. defense intelligence officer Rebekah Koffler 

Russian President Vladimir Putin, left, and Chief of the Russian General Staff Valery Gerasimov attend an expanded meeting of the Russian Defence Ministry Board at the National Defence Control Centre in Moscow, on Dec. 21, 2022. Gerasimov has not been seen in public since mercenary chief Yevgeny Prigozhin called off his rebellion against Russia's military leadership. (MIKHAIL KIREYEV/Sputnik/AFP via Getty Images)

Now that Wagner mercenary chief Yevgeny Prigozhin is in exile following his brief, inchoate mutiny of last weekend, more sinister drama has entered the scene in Russua. Suddenly several top Russian generals are nowhere to be seen. These are not merely medalled generals, but the elite of the Russian Federation's military establishment. One of the missing, named General 'Armageddon' is known to have been a close contact/colleague of Prigozhin's. 

Reports have surfaced, as yet unconfirmed, that General Sergei Surovikin with his links to Prigozhin has been arrested. He is not alone. Another general was absent from a number of events that embattled Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu accompanied President Vladimir Putin to. The others, who should have been there, were mysteriously absent. Which has, of course, led to speculation some top military officers may be suspected of having colluded with Prigozhin.

Suspicion is enough in the opaque world of Kremlin politics to pass judgement. Those suspected of disloyalty may now be in line for a punishing conclusion to their elite careers in the Russian military. The mutinous Wagner procession that marched along highways leading from Rostov-on-Don to Moscow almost a week ago had gone unchallenged. Where was the Russian military under the command of trusted generals? No army battalion challenged the Wagner convoy, no air assaults on the convoy took place.

The unchallenged march toward Moscow was an event that Vladimir Putin called treason, and a "stab in the back". General Surovikin has not been seen since the rebellion advanced unchallenged, at a time when he posted a video urging that the unfolding event be stopped. And it was stopped, wasn't it, only he wasn't involved in halting it. The Moscow Times and the Financial Times, along with a Russian military blogger reported that Surovikin, commander of the Russian air force, has been arrested.

Former head of the Ekho Moskvy, a prominent independent radio station shuttered by authorities following the February 2022 'special military operation' invasion of Ukraine, claimed Surovikin and his lieutenants are known not to have been in contact with their families for several days. Rybar, another prominent military messaging channel operated by a former press officer with the Defence Ministry, reported that a purge in the ranks was underway. Authorities had examined allegations that some members of the elite military might have supported Prigozhin.

Should an event of the nature of a purge be underway, the military chain of command could be destabilized, trickling down to erode troop morale in this still-early stage of Ukraine's summer of 2023 counteroffensive. Conceivably, Kyiv could grasp an opportunity amidst the chaos in the Russian military chain of command to reclaim more of Ukraine's geography from the Russian occupying invader. 

Both Surovikin and Prigozhin had been involved in Russia's military aerial and ground action in Syria since 2015, dedicated to supporting Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, aiding him in the reclamation of territory following Syria's civil war. Then there is the little detail that while Prigozhin unleashed his expletive-driven insults at Shoigu and chief of the General Staff General Valery Gerasimov before the mutiny of last week when he demanded their ouster, he continued to praise Surovikin.

The New York Times had earlier reported it was thought by U.S. officials that General Surovikin had advance knowledge of the Prigozhin-Wagner mutiny. When Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov was questioned with respect to the report, he shrugged it off as "speculations and gossip". Refusing to comment on whether Surovikin had been arrested.

The top Russian military commander in Ukraine, Gen. Sergei Surovikin, left, and Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu. (AP)

Russian War Crimes in Ukraine -- The Language of Force

"An attempt to split part of the state away means an encroachment at the very existence of the state. Quite obviously, it warrants the use of any weapons. I hope our 'friends' across the ocean realize that."

"If Patriot or other weapons are delivered to the territory of Ukraine along with foreign experts, they certainly make legitimate targets, which must be destroyed."

"They are combatants, they are the enemies of our state and they must be destroyed."

“Honestly speaking, Ukraine is part of Russia. But due to geopolitical reasons and the course of history we had tolerated that we were living in separate quarters and had been forced to acknowledge those invented borders for a long time."

Dmitry Medvedev, former Russian president, now deputy head of Russia's Security Council

 

"Right now, residential areas where ordinary people and children live are being fired at."

"This must not become 'just another day' in Ukraine or anywhere else in the world. The world needs greater unity and determination to defeat Russian terror faster and protect lives."

"Every time someone tries to hear the world 'peace' in Moscow, another order is given there for such criminal strikes [against Ukraine's civilian population]."

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy

Onlookers watch smoke rise from the fire caused by missile debris falling in the courtyard of a residential building in the Sviatoshynskyi district   CNN

 

Civilians are being killed and wounded across Ukraine by long-range Russian bombardment. At the same time Kremlin official Dmitry Medvedev heralded the news that Russian forces were prepared to repell the anticipated Ukrainian counteroffensive scheduled for this spring. Last year Ukrainian authorities established hundreds of 'points of invincibility', in reality aid stations where residents of Donetsk province could have access to food, charge their cellphone and enjoy some warmth. 

A Russian missile struck an aid station in eastern Ukraine with predictable results. Russian attacks are replete with S300 anti-aircraft missiles, not aimed at military bases but directly at civilian enclaves. The civilians who were killed at the aid station were refugees. The winter artillery war continues with Russian forces  using air-launched missiles, exploding drones and sliding bombs in several regions. 

An overnight rocket and artillery barrage and airstrikes hit the town of Bilophillia in Sumy province in the northeastern region. While in southern Ukraine, Russian shelling in the city of Kherson killed and wounded civilians and as well in the town of Bilozerka just a day after President Zelenskyy had visited the region.

Rescuers carry a body from residential buildings destroyed by a Russian missile strike

 

With the arrival of warmer spring weather and new weapons in hand from the West, including tanks, Ukrainian forces are preparing for a counteroffensive meant to dislodge Russian troops from occupied areas of Ukraine. "Our General Staff is addressing all that", scoffed Medvedev; any Ukrainian attempt to recapture Crimea illegally annexed in 2014, could, he asserted, trigger a nuclear response from Moscow. 

This is reflective of Russia's security doctrine which envisions the use of its atomic arsenal responding to a nuclear attack or one with conventional weaponry threatening "the very existence of the Russian state". Western experts operating weapons like the U.S.-produced Patriot air defence missile system given to Ukraine could be targeted, suggested Medvedev.  Russia knows well that Ukrainian soldiers received training in the U.S. despite which Russian officials often allude to foreign instructors in Ukraine.

Medvedev revealed that Moscow may strategize to occupy a long strip of Ukrainian territory stretching all the way to the Polish border. Poland would not stand idly by, unperturbed at witnessing this kind of operation unfold, with no reaction. It is even so without this further kind of action, preparing for the type of scenario that would activate its own military into confronting Russian forces by committing to active combat alongside Ukraine.

Poland knows of a certainty that if Russia succeeds in its mission of eviscerating Ukraine and growing the territory of the Russian Federation accordingly, it would be next on Moscow's expansion agenda, and it has no intention of allowing itself to become another appendage of Russian territorial conquest in a renewal of the Soviet Union.

"Our relations with the West are already worse than they have ever been in history. [German Justice Minister Marco Buschmann asserting Putin would be arrested in the ICC warrant should he visit Germany, a case in point.]"

“Let’s imagine ... the leader of a nuclear power visits the territory of Germany and is arrested. [It would amount to a declaration of war against Russia.] In this case, our assets will fly to hit the Bundestag, the chancellor’s office and so on."

“I have no illusions that we could communicate with them [Western politicians] again any time soon. It makes no sense to negotiate with certain countries and blocs — they only understand the language of force."

Dmitry Medvedev

Three Russian rockets launched against Ukraine from Russia's Belgorod region are seen at dawn in Kharkiv, Ukraine   CNN