Messaging Authorities : Confused Yet?

"A pessimistic scenario: the Ukrainians are given missiles, they prepare troops, of course they will continue their offensive, try to counterattack."

"They will attack Crimea, they will try to blow up the Crimean bridge [to the Russian mainland], cut off [our] supply lines."

"Therefore, we need to prepare for a hard war."

"[Russia's invasion goal of] demilitarizing [Ukraine backfired since Kyiv's military is stronger with the supply of weapons and training by its western allies]."

"We are withdrawing units from Bakhmut today."

Wagner chief Yevgeny Prigozhin

Yevgeny Prigozhin speaks to Wagner soldiers in Bakhmut   Reuters

"We can see that the military command as well as the political establishments of the Russian Federation are not ready for this situation."

"They have invested billions in strengthening their line but when it comes to action, everything falls apart and nothing is working."

"I think you will see us again on that side [within Russian territory]."

"I cannot reveal those upcoming things, I cannot even reveal the direction. The … border is pretty long. Yet again there will be a spot where things will get hot."

Denis Kapustin, commander, Russian Volunteer Corps.

 

"We as an official state have nothing to do with these events [striking cross-border from Ukraine within Russia]."

"These are Russian citizens that are doing this as a means to express their attitude towards what is going on in Russia."

"This demonstrates to us that they are not ready for the challenges that are to come, not just in the Belgorod oblast but in any territorial unit of Russia [potential for further uprisings by Russian rebel groups.]"

"The capacity and strengths of the Russian chain of command will not be enough. The system has stopped working. The FSB [Federal Security Service] is supposed to be controlling the border. The question arises: where is the FSB?"

Oleksiy Danilov, secretary, Ukraine national security and defence council

According to the latest wildcat revelations of Russia's private army Wagner Group head, over 20,000 men had been killed in the drawn-out battle for Bakhmut, roughly half of whom were Russian convicts recruited to fight in the conflict. Moscow claims that just over 6,000 of its  troops were killed during the war. Official Soviet troop losses in the 1979-89 war in Afghanistan saw a total of 15,000 Russian servicemen losing their lives, as a point of contrast. 

According to analysts, tens of thousands of soldiers have been killed during the Bakhmut nine-month fight, among them Russian convicts who were reported to have received little training before they were sent to the front.  In an interview with Konstantin Dolgov, pro-Kremlin political strategist, Mr. Prigozhin stated Russian forces had killed civilians despite Moscow' vehement denials.

Earlier in the month a video of Prigozhin published by his media team featured him shouting, swearing claiming the 30 uniformed bodies on the ground around him were Wagner fighters all of whom died that very day. The Russian Defence Ministry, he said, had starved his men of ammunition. He threatened to leave the fight for Bakhmut. In Tuesday's interview he claimed it was possible that the anticipated counteroffensive given continued Western support could push Russian forces out of southern and eastern Ukraine along with annexed Crimea.

The following day the Ukrainian General Staff spoke of "heavy fighting" continuing within Bakhmut, days following Russia having said it had completely captured the devastated city in Donetsk province, one of four provinces annexed last fall by Russia.  It took another day and Moscow announced its forces had crushed a cross-border raid from Ukraine.

On the other hand, in Russia's southern Belgorod region, Russian forces claimed to have shot down "a large number" of drones following a day when Moscow had announced its forces had crushed a cross-border raid in the area, from Ukraine. According to the Belgorod Governor the drones were intercepted overnight and another shot down on Wednesday outside the local capital city Belgorod.

 

Wagner head warns of revolution unless elite gets serious about war – still from video

"This divide [social disparity underlined by the war, with the sons of the poor being sent back from the front in zinc coffins while the children of the elite 'shook their arses' in the sun] can end as in 1917 with a revolution."

"First the soldiers will stand up, and after that – their loved ones will rise up. There are already tens of thousands of them – relatives of those killed. And there will probably be hundreds of thousands – we cannot avoid that."

Wagner Group Chief Yevgeny Prigozhin

Russian Insurrectionists

"From the first day of the war, my heart, the heart of a real Russian man, a real Christian, told me that I had to be here to defend the people of Ukraine."

"It was a very difficult process[joining the Ukrainian effort]. It took me several months to finally join the ranks of the defenders of Ukraine."

Pseudonym "Caesar"

 

"We can confirm that this operation is carried out by Russian citizens."

In Ukraine these units are part of defense and security forces. In Russia they are acting as independent entities."

Andriy Yusov, Ukrainian Defense Intelligence representative

"[Those responsible for the cross border-raid in Belgorod are Russians who want to get rid of] the darkness [in their country; there is not any involvement from Kyiv]."

"They are Russians, it is their country and they have the right to be there."

"There are some Russians who are on the side of the light and who went to deal with the darkness that exists in Russia now."

Ukrainian National Security Advisor Oleksiy Danilov

Smoke seen over the Belgorod region following the reported attack

"Ukraine is watching the events in the Belgorod region of Russia with interest and studying the situation, but it has nothing to do with it."

"As you know, tanks are sold at any Russian military store, and underground guerrilla groups are composed of Russian citizens."

Mykhailo Podolyak, adviser to Volodymyr Zelenskyy

 

"The big question is was Ukraine in any way behind it, and if they weren't behind it, did they know about it."

"Or was it as much a surprise to them as it was to the Kremlin?"

"I think the Zelenskyy government is too clever to do this." 

"[In one way it's similar to the drone attack on Moscow - 'it's humiliating'."

"On the other hand they kind of get the benefit of saying look this is how we are under attack by the Ukrainians and they want to destroy Russia."

Defence expert, professor Michael Clarke

Still from a video of a helicopter seen releasing flares

And of course Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has no wish at all to embarrass Moscow, much less his arch-enemy Vladimir Putin. And nor would he intentionally, and too obviously seek to annoy his international supporters supporting him with weaponry in his country's existential defence against the Russian military invading his country, destroying its cities, killing its civilian population by the thousands and its servicemen by the tens of thousands. The U.S. warned him against mounting incursions into Russian territory, not to use long-range missiles to strike within Russia, thus risking 'escalation' and a wider war.

So, no, of course Ukrainian forces refrain from crossing the border, wouldn't think of attacking Russian border towns, and certainly would never be so bold as to strike the heart of Russia in Moscow itself. The Kremlin? Unthinkable! The fact is, the Russian full-scale invasion is a military travesty, the Putin dictatorship an intolerable blemish on international standards of sovereignty, and the brutishness of the ongoing attacks on civilian infrastructure in Ukraine constituting war crimes an offence against humanity.

Ukrainian forces, any time they feel they have the initiative must restrain themselves, objectively respecting Russia's sovereign territory despite Russia having claimed Crimea and the Donbas as Russian territory in its expansionist Soviet-style power structure renascent. However, if there are dissident Russian groups willing and able to mount their own opposition to their country's leadership they must do so without Ukraine's intervention, encouragement, assistance. 

And reports of Russian volunteers conducting combat operations driving tanks and armoured vehicles into Russia, in the process "capturing" villages and declaring a new republic, Ukraine can cheer them on but remain detached. The incident is not to be described as Ukraine-backed forces bringing the war to Russian soil; these are Russians declaring their opposition to Russian leadership carried out by anti-Kremlin fighters from the Russian Freedom Legion and Russian Volunteer Corps, both claiming links to Kyiv's foreign fighters.

According to initial reports out of Ukraine's military intelligence, the two battalions of volunteers crossed into the Belgorod region to "create a security zone" meant to protect Ukrainian civilians from Russian attacks. Confusing, unnecessarily complex and contradictory? War is like that. On the part of Russia, officials laid claim of the "Ukrainian forces" capturing four frontier settlements amidst reports of heavy area fighting. Social media footage showed a tank and multiple armoured vehicles with Ukrainian tactical markings approaching the Grayvoron border-control post, damaged at an earlier point by shelling.

Ukrainian social-media sources showed an image of three soldiers declaring a new "Belgorod's People's Republic". Rivalling in reverse and mocking the Donetsk Peoples Republic and the Luhansk Peoples Republic in the Donbas. The Russian Volunteer Corps called on Russian frontier region residents to remain at home and "not to resist". While the Russian Freedom Legion called on Russians to rise up and defeat Vladimir Putin: "The time has come to put an end to the Kremlin dictatorship. Be brave and have no fear because we are coming home."

"We perfectly understand the point of such acts of sabotage -- to divert attention from the Bakhmut front line."

"Work is underway to push out Ukrainian saboteurs from Russian territory and destroy the sabotage group."

"There are enough resources and manpower on the ground."

Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov

 

"Russian nations, the [RFL and RDK] have claimed responsibility for those actions."

"I think we can only welcome those decisive steps by opposition-minded Russians who have taken up arms to fight the criminal regime of Vladimir Putin that has usurped power in Russia."

Andriy Yusov, spokesman, Ukraine military intelligence 

For the time being, the Belgorod effort has been put on hold. Russia's response in meeting the raid with deadly force, according to the Russian media, was the death of 70 of those calling themselves Russian patriots, whom Moscow might have described as traitors, insurrectionists, Ukraine lap-dogs. The towns of Kozinka, Glotove and Gora-Odul, sized by the raiding forces are now back in Russian military hands. But the Russian government of President Vladimir Putin appears to be crumbling. Not soon enough, not fast enough.

A still image shows a flying object exploding in an intense burst of light near the dome of the Kremlin Senate building earlier this month.   Ostorozhno Novosti/Reuters