Saturday, October 11, 2025

The Potential to Even the Odds for Ukraine

"As you understand, without software and launchers, the missiles themselves are just blanks."
"Accordingly, as has also been stated at a high level by the Russian side, the hypothetical use of such systems is only possible with the direct involvement of American personnel."
"Naturally, we urge the U.S. leadership and the U.S. military to take a sober, reasonable, responsible approach to this situation.
"Sadly, I have to say that the powerful impetus of the Anchorage meeting in favour of agreements has turned out to be exhausted to a significant extent by adversaries' efforts [European leaders] destructive actions."
Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov 
'Will Bomb Launch Sites', Warns Russia As US Considers Tomahawk Missiles For Ukraine
"Our response will be tough, ambiguous, measured, and asymmetrical," a senior Russian official said.
 
"I think I want to find out what they're doing with them [ATACM missiles sent to Ukraine, to determine what might be done with Tomahawks]."
"Where are they sending them? I guess I'd have to ask that question."
U.S. President Donald Trump
President Trump's administration has been forewarned. DO NOT give Ukraine access to long-range Tomahawk missiles with the potential to strike targets deep within Russia. Should Ukraine receive such armaments and use them as payback to Moscow for its strikes everywhere within Ukraine in defiance to international rules of conflict aiming directly at civilian infrastructure, including hospitals, apartment blocks, energy providers and shopping centers, claiming that the Russian military targets only military installations, this would be an act of terrorism on Ukraine's part. Quite unlike Russia's examples.
 
Moves the Trump administration has taken repeatedly toward resolving the Ukraine conflict -- occasioned by Vladimir Putin's overarching plan to annex Ukrainian territory for absorption into Greater Russia, when Russia's full-scale military invasion saw the Ukrainian military fighting back measure for measure in reacting to save its geography from Mr. Putin's fixation on territorial expansion and subjugation of Ukraine -- when Russian President Vladimir Putin met in August with U.S. President Trump, have been "largely exhausted" stated Mr.  Ryabkov in exasperation.
 
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U.S. President Donald Trump shakes hand with Russian President Vladimir Putin, as they meet to negotiate for an end to the war in Ukraine, at Joint Base Elmendorf-Richardson in Anchorage, Alaska, U.S., August 15, 2025. REUTERS/Kevin Lamarque/File Photo
 
The fact that President Trump has been considering sale of new weapons over the past few weeks, to Ukraine while criticizing Russia as a "paper tiger", has not sat well with the Moscow contingent. A concerted Russian effort at deterring the Trump administration's musing about providing the more powerful missiles to Ukraine has been rather unnerving in Moscow for its potential. Obviously providing advanced military technology to Ukraine would see a direct conflict ensue between Russia and its NATO-linked neighbours.
 
It is European leaders who are the war-mongers, certainly not Russia is the prevailing message out of the Kremlin. It seems that Mr. Trump's evident weak spot for his Russian counterpart has groomed Russian authorities to consider him collegial in nature, whereas the open hostility evinced by Russia's East European neighbours mark them as  preparing for conflict with unassuming Russia which harbours no intention whatever of launching new invasions as soon as Ukraine falls.  
"[Ryabkov has] drawn a firm line [with his comment that the momentum for resolving the Ukraine conflict had dissipated after the Alaska summit]."
"[With Trump considering the Tomahawk question], Moscow sees the situation as critical."
"Moscow warns Trump about a more acute confrontation and expects him to make what it considers the 'right' choice."
Tatiana Stanovaya, senior fellow, Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center  
President Trump's casual remark that he had "sort of" made a decision, but had yet to discern how Kyiv would use the weapons beforehand, reflected the reality that the administration had not decided to sell the Tomahawks to Ukraine. The Tomahawk technology with its range of close to 2,500 kilometres depending on the variant involved, in comparison to around 300 kilometres for ATACM missiles previously provided to Kyiv, is serious business, placing Russia on alert. 
 
Despite that Putin had asserted that the missiles "won't change the balance of power on the battlefield", while at a Russian foreign policy conference, the potential of the Ukraine military using them definitely has the Kremlin on edge. The weapons, warned Mr. Putin on another occasion, would represent a "qualitatively new stage of escalation" since they could not be fired without involvement of U.S. personnel.  Supplying Tomahawks to Ukraine would create an aura with "severity of the consequences", he warned.
https://i.abcnewsfe.com/a/12fdcae9-6b1d-41f0-911d-7c57435b1b43/Tomahawk-DB-251008_1759907865733_hpEmbed_4x3.jpg?w=750
A dummy Tomahawk land attack missile is seen onboard HMS Artful, a British submarine, at a shipyard in Barrow-in-Furness, U.K.   Phil Noble/Reuters
 
A former Russian deputy defence minister, Andrei Karetapolov, now head of the parliament's defence committee warned darkly that Russia knew how to shoot down these missiles and would in turn target any launchers detected on Ukrainian soil.  
"Our response will be tough, ambiguous, measured, and asymmetrical."
"We will find ways to hurt those who cause us trouble."
"The only problems will be for those who supply them and those who use them."
Andrei Karaetapolov 
Not to be outdone, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov warned as well against the "new escalation" represented by allowing Kyiv access to Tomahawks. To round out the concerns expressed by the Russians, Keith Kellogg, the US. envoy to Ukraine, informed Fox News that President Trump had authorized Ukraine to carry out long-range strikes with U.S.-made weapons, with the warning that "there are no such things as sanctuaries".  
"After the summit in Alaska, there was hope that Trump was ready to continue dialogue with Russia and take our interests into account."
"Donald has now thoroughly disappointed us with his trademark inconsistency."
 Andrei Baranov, pro-Kremlin newspaper Komsomolskaya Pravda
https://i.abcnewsfe.com/a/a41d63f7-ae12-4752-87b0-e6d0dc261106/Tsahkna-DB-251007_1759844732946_hpMain.jpg?w=750
Estonian Foreign Minister Margus Tsahkna delivers a statement at a United Nations Security Council meeting on Sept. 22, 2025 in New York City.
Spencer Platt/Getty Images

 

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posted by Pieface @ Saturday, October 11, 2025

Saturday, October 26, 2024

Russia and North Korea, Bedfollows and War-Mongers

"We are seeing evidence that there are North Korean troops [that have gone to Russia]."
"What exactly they're doing is left to be seen. If they're co-belligerents, their intention is to participate in this war on Russia's behalf."
"That is a very very serious issue, and it will have impacts not only in Europe; it will also impact things in the Indo-Pacific."
U.S. Defence Secretary Lloyd Austin
 
"North Korea’s dispatch of the troops to Russia is a provocation that is threatening the security of the Korean peninsula."
"South Korea will not stand by and do nothing."
South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol
North Korea Military Parade
North Korea's soldiers have little, if any, combat experience.  Xinhua News Agency via Getty Images file
"[Kyiv had intelligence about Russia] training two military units from North Korea [involving perhaps] two brigades of 6,000 people each."
"[Ukraine has seen North Korean] officers and technical staff in the temporarily occupied territories [and believes Russia is] preparing a grouping [to enter Ukraine]."
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy
 
"Rubbish. Knowing his character, Putin would never try to persuade another country to involve its army in Russia’s special operation in Ukraine."
"It would be a step towards the escalation of the conflict if the armed forces of any country, even Belarus, were on the contact line."
"Even if we got involved in the war this would be a path to escalation. Why? Because you, the Anglo-Saxons, would immediately say that another country had got involved on one side... so NATO troops would be deployed to Ukraine."
President Alexander Lukashenko, Belarus
https://assets.kyivindependent.com/content/images/2024/10/GettyImages-2157649988.webp
North Korea's leader Kim Jong Un (Center-R) and Russian President Vladimir Putin (L) walk past children attending a welcoming ceremony at Kim Il Sung Square in Pyongyang on June 19, 2024.(Vladimir Smirnov / POOL / AFP)

Rumours abound, but by Wednesday the U.S. defence secretary agreed that evidence exists affirming that North Korea has dispatched troops to Russia. Should they join the conflict in Ukraine offering practical fighting assistance to Moscow, there would be consequences, he warned. Lawmakers in South Korea were informed by the country's chief spy that 3,000 North Korean troops have arrived in Russia to receive training on the use of drones and other equipment, prior to deployment to Ukraine battlefields.

According to American Defence Secretary Lloyd Austin, this turn of events represent a "next step", an add-on following the provision by North Korea to Russia in the past two years of conflict, of arms. Pyongyang could face consequences, he warned, for helping Russia directly in its war with Ukraine. Analysts, he said, were in the process of analyzing the situation.

Reports that the Russian navy had ferried 1,500 North Korean special warfare troops to Russia this month was publicized most recently by South Korean intelligence. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy verified that his government was in possession of intelligence confirming that 10,000 North Korea soldiers were in preparation to join the Russian forces as they advance in their invasion of Ukraine.

Both Russia and North Korea deny that North Korean troops have been transported to Russia for training. Despite that the troop movements have been verified. President Zelenskyy stated his government is confident of the accuracy of the intelligence specifying the situation, to reflect the reality on the ground. In the past two years, Russia and North Korea have firmed their relationship in the annals of yet another axis of evil after signing a major defence agreement that requires both countries to use all available means to provide immediate military assistance should either country be attacked.

North Korea has been extremely useful to Russia in its arms shipments, which include thousands of metric tons of munitions, helping Russia to replenish its dwindling stockpiles in a war where Ukraine’s forces have long been outgunned and outmanned. For its part in the exchange, cash-strapped North Korea is believed to have received food and other necessities. 
 
It concerns South Korean officials that Russia may reward North Korea for its diplomacy and what is more important, supplying North Korea with sophisticated weapons technologies. As for North Korea, the anticipation may be that Moscow will consider rewarding it through granting sophisticated weapons technologies with the potential to increase the North's nuclear and missile programs targeting South Korea.

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Putin and Kim have exchanged gifts and visits as they have deepened their alliance in the past year. Getty Images

"Putin will never use the [nuclear] weapons stationed in Belarus without the Belarusian president’s consent."
"I’m completely ready, [to allow the use of nuclear weapons in Ukraine] otherwise why have these weapons? But only if the boot of one [foreign] soldier steps into Belarus."
"We have no plans to attack anyone."
Alexander Lukashenko

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posted by Pieface @ Saturday, October 26, 2024

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