Russia's Barbaric Geothermal Drone Scheme

"We, from our side, must do everything so that next year this war ends by diplomatic means. This is very important." 

"This is their approach [the United States], their promise to their society [quick deal between Kyiv and Moscow], it is also very important to them. He [Trump] is on the side of supporting Ukraine, he appreciates our strength, integrity and courage."

"[Ukraine should not be] left alone with the Russian Federation [to craft a solution to the conflict]. For us, the victory means a strong Ukraine. Whether that's in diplomacy or on the battlefield is another question."

"But we have already proved that 'sit and listen' rhetoric does not work with us. Sitting, talking and agreeing on nothing -- this is what is beneficial for Putin."

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy

A Ukrainian soldier examines a thermobaric drone launched by Russia  AP

 

A small number of highly destructive thermobaric drones have been created by a high-tech factory in central Russia. The same factory also produces huge swarms of inexpensive decoys. The use of the drones -- both the destructive models, relatively few in number due to the expense of production and the decoys produced in much greater number are an expression of a new tactic devised by Moscow to overwhelm Kyiv, forcing it to respond to all the drones in fear of one of the thermobaric types wreaking chaos and greater deaths. In the process of responding, the plan is for Ukraine to unnecessarily, out of caution, use its dwindling stock of defensive weaponry to shoot down the drones, expending in the process defensive funding. 

Vladimir Putin's mission to destroy Ukraine and reap the benefits of acquiring more Ukrainian territory to be folded into Greater Russia doesn't leave much hope for Russia to become a willing partner for peace  until its objectives have been achieved. At which time Ukraine will be geographically eviscerated at the cost of more lives and ruined civic infrastructure. And while Kyiv is anxious to protect the lives of its citizens, the Kremlin seems disposed to consider its fighting men expendable, including the new contingents of North Korean fighters now under Russian command.

Russia calls its drone scheme Operation False Target, its intention is to force Ukraine to needlessly use its scarce resources to save lives and hope to spare further destruction of critical infrastructure. As for distinguishing the relatively harmless drones from their look-alike thermobaric drones, it cannot be done by radar and even electronics experts cannot distinguish which drones fleeting through the skies are the deadly ones. Russia's is a devilish plan to continue on its path of destruction in Ukraine. The first weekend of November saw 20 hours in the Kyiv region under air alert. In October some 1,889 drones were launched by Moscow.

Over 50% of the drones that target Ukraine are unarmed decoys with up to 75% being produced out of a factory in the Alabuga Special Economic Zone in Russia; a highly sensitive industry. A deadly variant of the Shahed unmanned aircraft is also produced at the same factory, armed with thermobaric warheads. These vacuum bombs create a vortex of high pressure and heat capable of penetrating the thickest walls while sucking out all the oxygen encountered in their path. When they strike buildings Alabuga's thermobaric drones are particularly deadly since they are loaded as well with ball bearings to cause massive damage beyond the superheated blast.

These deadly drones are estimated to make up between 3 and 5 percent of all drones. Their physical effects on people even outside the initial blast site, are grotesquely lethal; collapsed lungs, crushed eyeballs, brain damage included. The human toll is of little interest to Russia, however. They see great conflict benefits in the drones' use. An unarmed drone costs much less than the $50,000 to produce an armed Shahed drone. Decoys with live-feed cameras also have their special functions, allowing geolocation of Ukraine's air defences, relaying the information to Russia just before they crash.

 

DJI Matrice reconnaissance drones, bought during 'The Army of Drones' program, are set up ready for test flights in the Kyiv region, Ukraine. (Sergei Supinsky / AFP via Getty Images)

Russian Bluster, Ukraine Action

"If you look at the explosions in the attacks, they are quite small. I suspect that these [rudimentary drones made in Ukraine] are homemade drones, which have had explosives strapped to them."

"If you wanted to seek out enemy positions in the past, you would have had to send out special forces units... and you might lose some troops. Now, all you're risking is a drone."

"They were shown attacking targets such as ammunition dumps, and played a part in the sinking of the Moskva [warship],"

"Ukraine doesn't have as much ammunition as Russia. Having 'eyes in the sky' to spot targets and direct artillery fire means they can make better use of what they have."

"Russian forces have the Stupor rifle, which shoots electromagnetic pulses, [This stops commercial drones from being able to navigate using GPS]."

Dr Marina Miron, researcher in defence studies, King's College London

A damaged building after a Russian drone attack on Wednesday in Kyiv, Ukraine.Credit...Laura Boushnak for The New York Times

Faced with a violent adversary that has demonstrated its willingness to exercise a scorched earth policy on its neighbour, marching in to invade and to intimidate by force of arms with the intention of unseating the legally installed government, in the process never hesitating to bomb civilian structures; apartment buildings, schools, markets, hospitals; Ukraine has had to jump-start itself on brilliant strategic moves, improvising munitions, quickly training its servicemen in the use of internationally-supplied advanced weaponry and has, by sheer grit and determination defended itself.

To the astonishment of the global community, most of which has rallied to aid Ukraine in its plight, pledging military and non-military support, enacting sanctions on Russia, fulfilling commitments to upgrade Ukraine's weapons arsenals and to continue training for its military, the government of Ukraine and its military has exacted a steep price on Russia for its arrogant assumption that the country would easily fall to its neighbour's predations.

Ill-trained Russian troops, unprepared conscripts, faulty weaponry have all illustrated just how ill-prepared Moscow was to pounce on its neighbour with the expectation that it could withdraw after looting Ukrainian territory in an expansion of Russia's. Ukraine's counteroffensive has aptly demonstrated the expertise and versatility of Ukraine's strategic capacity, from sinking Russian warships to bombing weapons depots and returning to Russia within its borders compliments in the form of missiles and improvised drones in response to Russia's raging drones as pay-back for Ukraine's attack on a supply bridge in Crimea.

Russia saw fit to annex Donetsk, Kherson, Luhansk and Zaporizhzhia oblasts as an entitlement project, but spits fire in rage over Ukraine defending itself and effectively demonstrating that those provinces will be returned to Ukraine by the same kind of force that the Kremlin ordered to divide them from their proper sovereign ownership. Yet again, Ukraine is able to state having thwarted Russian drone attacks, this time on Kyiv and its regional surrounds. The Ukraine air defence system on Wednesday destroyed a baker's dozen of explosive-laden drones.

Their falling wreckage did cause damage to buildings but no human casualties. As opposed to those thirteen drones hitting their targets unchallenged. Russia has had to rely on distance aerial attacks in the face of its troops' inability to counter Ukrainian troops on the battlefield without ignominiously retreating, leaving behind all their munitions as a gift for the victorious Ukrainian troops. No doubt leaving Mr. Putin both fuming in rage and cringing in despair.

Once again Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky announced that "terrorists" had fired Iranian-produced drones, all of which were successfully intercepted. Drones alongside rockets, missiles, mortars and artillery have all been used by Moscow to target power stations, water facilities and various other public utility apparatus. In the wake of the latest attacks on Wednesday, clean-up crews were dispatched to shovel off rubble and roll out sheeting to cover windows. 

According to some Kyiv residents, fragments from a drone bore the words "For Ryazan", a military base in the Ryazan region of western Russia hit by a cross-border attack the week before. In areas close to the front lines Odesa has seen drone strikes shut off power completely. Air defence systems on December 5 responding to a round of Russian volleys, intercepted over 60 of 70 strikes, nine of 10 targeting the capital. Patriot surface-to-air missile batteries are next on the agenda from the U.S. to Ukraine.

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In Washington, the Russian Embassy warned that a Patriot missile delivery would be viewed by Moscow as "another provocative step by the administration, which could lead to unpredictable consequences" which in turn would be likely to cause "colossal damage not only to Russian-American relations but would create additional global security risks".

 

Firefighters work after a drone fired on buildings in Kyiv, Ukraine, on Oct. 17. Waves of explosive-laden suicide drones struck Ukraine’s capital as families were preparing to start their week early Monday, the blasts echoing across Kyiv, setting buildings ablaze and sending people scurrying to shelters. Roman Hrytsyna/AP