Tuesday, July 11, 2023

"All Measures Being Taken To Counter Threat"

"Our intelligence says that the Russian military has placed objects resembling explosives on the roof of several power units of the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant."
"[Russia is planning to] simulate an attack on the plant. Or they could have some other kind of scenario."
"But in any case, the world sees — and cannot fail to see — that the only source of danger to the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant is Russia. And no one else."
"Radiation is a threat to everyone in the world, and the nuclear plant must be fully protected from any radiation incidents."
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy

"The IAEA experts have requested additional access that is necessary to confirm the absence of mines or explosives."
"In particular, access to the rooftops of reactor units 3 and 4 is essential."
IAEA

"Operational data [suggests that] explosive devices [have been placed on the roof of Zaporizhzhia’s third and fourth reactors Tuesday, and that an attack is possible] in the near future."
"If detonated, they would not damage the reactors but would create an image of shelling from the Ukrainian side. [The Ukrainian army stands] ready to act under any circumstances."
Ukrainian military statement
 A view shows the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant outside Enerhodar in the Zaporizhzhia region, Russian-controlled Ukraine, June 15, 2023.
Ukraine and Russia have traded accusations of plotting attacks at the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant
"[Ukraine plans to drop a] dirty bomb [containing nuclear waste taken from another of the country’s five nuclear stations on Zaporizhzhia.]"
"Under cover of darkness overnight on July 5, the Ukrainian military will try to attack the Zaporizhzhia station using long-range precision equipment and kamikaze attack drones."
Renat Karchaa, adviser, Rosenergoatom, Russia’s nuclear network
 
"The situation is quite tense because there is indeed a great threat of sabotage by the Kyiv regime, which could be catastrophic in its consequences."
"The Kyiv regime has repeatedly demonstrated its willingness to do anything. Therefore, all measures are being taken to counter such a threat."
Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov
Fears are on the rise that Russia may be preparing to blow up Ukraine's Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant, after five large objects were photographed on the roof. Satellite images taken by San Francisco-based Planet Labs on July 5 showed that packages had been placed on the roof of Reactor No. 4 of Europe's largest nuclear power plant. The objects cannot be identified, but the Ukrainian president has given warning Russia has plans to blow up the plant, then blame it on Ukraine.

The nuclear power plant has been under control of Russian forces from the first few days of the war forward. Its location on the southern bank of the Dnipro River forms the front line of the conflict. It was reported last week that Russian forces had given orders for Ukrainian staff to leave the plant. To the present, the International Atomic Energy Agency has been given permission to inspect some areas of the plant, but access is limited. Improved access to the sites and in particular to the reactors' roofs are now being demanded by the UN's nuclear watchdog.
 
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New satellite images show unidentifiable shapes at Ukraine's Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant
 
Officials at the Russian nuclear agency Rosenergoatom, deny accusations. In their turn they have reversed the Ukrainian version, claiming that it is Ukrainian forces that are planning an attack on their own power plant. Each previously has accused the other of planning a "Red Flag" atrocity for propaganda purposes. They accused one another of blowing up the Kakhovka Dam in May, which caused emergency-level flooding of downstream towns and cities.

Experts downplay the fallout of an explosion at the Soviet-built Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant: "Its six reactors have been shut down for over ten months, and are no longer making enough heat to cause a prompt radiological release", according to the diagnosis of the American Nuclear Society. The plant's six pressurized water reactors, five of which are in "cold shutdown" where control rods are fully inserted, suppressing the fission chain reaction in the fuel, has lead to a timely cool-off.

The sixth reactor is in "hot shutdown", where enough heat to drive turbines is not being produced to make electricity as would happen during normal operation, a move by the Russians now operating the plant. The reactor, however, is kept hot enough to produce steam for other operations taking place at the plant and it is this reactor that will require more cooling water than the other five.
"It's like a conversation and I'm pushing to get as much access as possible. [There was] marginal improvement."
"I'm optimistic that we are going to be able to go up and see [the rooftops]."
"I'm pretty confident that we will get this authorization. This is a combat zone, it's an active warzone, so sometimes it may take a day or two to get authorization."
International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) director general Rafael Grossi 
Rescue workers and police officers attend anti-radiation drills for case of an emergency situation at Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant, amid Russia's attack on Ukraine, in Zaporizhzhia, Ukraine June 29, 2023.
Ukrainian officials have been holding anti-radiation drills in case of a nuclear catastrophe at the Zaporizhzhia plant.

 

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Sunday, June 11, 2023

Ukraine Counteroffensive, Russian 'Special Military Operation' Death Throes

"Counteroffensive and defensive actions are taking place in Ukraine. At what stage, I will not say in detail."
"I am in daily contact with our commanders. Everyone is positive. So pass it on to Putin."
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy 
 
"We can clearly say the offensive has started, as indicated by the Ukrainian army's use of strategic reserves."
"But the Ukrainian troops haven't achieved their stated tasks in a single area of fighting."
Russian President Vladimir Putin 
 
"We are seeing newly Western trained and equipped Ukrainian brigades participating in significant armored assaults on Russian positions. Those brigades with that equipment were explicitly built for this counteroffensive."
"As the offensive has just begun, it's too early to say how it's going to pan out. Ukraine is assaulting heavily fortified Russian positions. It is expected that they would sustain significant casualties."
Dmitri Alperovitch, analyst, Silverado Policy Accelerator, Washington think tank
Ukrainian soldiers firing from an armored fighting vehicle several miles south of Bakhmut, Ukraine, on Saturday.
Credit...Tyler Hicks/The New York Times
The long-anticipated counteroffensive against Russian forces in occupied regions of Ukraine has been launched, a critical phase in the conflict purposed to restore Ukraine's territorial sovereignty. Specialized attack units along with regular troops armed with Western weapons, trained in NATO tactics launched strikes on front-line positions in Ukraine's southeast on Wednesday night; the beginning of a significant forward momentum into Russian-occupied territory.

Unauthorized military personnel officers spoke on condition of anonymity discussing battlefield developments. Reports were also made by Russian military bloggers of heavy fighting in the Zaporizhzhia region, long seen along the front line as a likely locale of the new Ukrainian campaign.
Kyiv's forces could aim to sever the "land bridge" between mainland Russia and the occupied Crimean Peninsula, cutting off crucial Russian supply lines, by cutting south through Zaporizhzhia.

The city of Melitopol where Russia has established the region's occupied capital and Enerhodar where the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant is located, could also become the focus of an attempted liberation. Spokesman for Ukrainian military units located across much of the eastern and southern front line, Valeriy Shershen, confirmed that "more activity" in the Zaporizhzhia region could be expected, adding he "wouldn't say it's something major".

No single action would mark the start of the counteroffensive, warned Ukrainian officials in recent days repeating an official announcement of the counteroffensive start would not be made, but their president broke the silence and confirmed just that. "Small counteroffensive activities" on a local scale, particularly the fight for Velyka Novo-silka in the Donetsk region east of the Zaporizhzhia region was another active conflict site, said Shershen.

In anticipation of a possible Ukrainian attack, the Russians stepped up their shelling in the Zaporizhzhia region. Over the course of months as the counteroffensive unfolds, a pivotal test of a U.S.-led strategy to prepare Ukrainian forces and train them on the use of the most advanced warfare tactics will demonstrate just how successful the long-range strategy proves to have been. 

"Perhaps, we can now reliably say that the offensive of the Armed Forces of Ukraine began five-six days ago", wrote Igor Strelkov, former officer of Russia's security service who was heavily involved in Russia's annexation of Crimea in 2014 and its later war in the eastern Donbas region. He set himself up to provide analyses of troop movements at various hot spots along the front.

Russian forces have spent months fortifying the Zaporizhzhia region with mines and trenches, representing fierce obstacles in Ukraine's advance. One brigade member taking part in the offensive in the southeast described "continuous heavy fighting. It is very difficult on the field. Our artillery and aviation are working, but the Russians' are working as well. It is difficult for us and for them. The armed forces are advancing. But not as fast as we wanted."
 
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Members of Ukrainian Armed Forces are seen during their shooting training with heavy weapons at the areas close to the frontline in Zaporizhzhia, Ukraine on April 20, 2023.
Muhammed Enes Yildirim/Anadolu Agency via Getty Images

 A breach of the Russian-controlled Kakhovka dam and hydroelectric power plant on Tuesday sent water gushing over the banks of the Dnieper River, into dozens of residential communities in both Ukrainian and Russian-controlled territories, just as the counteroffensive is intensifying. The battlefield, of necessity, has been redrawn in that part of the southern front as a result of the vast flooding.

On Thursday, Russian forces shelled a flooded city, forcing a suspension of rescue efforts. Thousands in the region are now homeless, tens of thousands without drinking water or electricity. With no power out of the Kakhovka plant or the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant, Ukraine can anticipate being short on electricity for some time. The ecological and agricultural damage will be incalculable.
"With no power and no water at this huge nuclear power plant, the chance of the meltdown of reactors and spent nuclear fuel starts to become plausible."
"Putin has threatened the West with nuclear weapons since the beginning of this war, but even if this is a hollow threat, the power plant could still be used as an improvised nuclear weapon, with plausible deniability."
"It is uncertain what contamination would ensue or where it would go, but it would be a global humanitarian and environmental disaster."
Hamish de Bretton-Gordon, former commander of U.K. and NATO CBRN (Chemical, Biological, Radiological, Nuclear) forces
Two soldiers rest in a trench in Ukraine.
Ukrainian soldiers rest in a trench on the front line near Kreminna, Luhansk region, Ukraine, on June 9. (Roman Chop/The Associated Press)

 

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