Monday, October 09, 2023

Drone Wars

"At night we do bombing missions, and during the day we think about how to get new drones."
"We're examining every possible way to export drones from China."
Oles Maliarevych, 92nd Mechanized Brigade officer, Ukraine 
A photo on SHUBBA-Octagon's website shows a DJI drone armed with an explosive.
A photo on SHUBBA-Octagon's website shows a DJI drone armed with an explosive.
 
In a basement eight kilometers from the front lines of the conflict Russia imposed upon Ukraine, soldiers from the 92nd Mechanized Brigade work on a deadly supply chain of cluster munitions, thermobaric bombs and drones. Where hobbyist drones are converted to combat weapons. One soldier attaches a modified battery to a quadcopter to enable it further flight. On the battlefield, pilots zip-tie a homemade shell to the bottom of the device to crash it into Russian trenches and tanks as human-guided missiles.

These airborne vehicles are so effective that those who modify them find it difficult to keep up with demand. Yet sourcing new supplies is of and in itself a full-time occupation. The conflict in Ukraine has become a war of drones. Leaving those who use them heavily reliant on supply sources. Large, military-grade drones are produced by Iran and Turkey, while the inexpensive consumer drones largely are supplied from China. Suppliers from China have yet to keep up their supplies that Ukrainians reconstitute to weapons-grade.

Chinese manufacturers such as DJI, EHang and Autel churned out drones at an ever-increasing rate over the last decade. Now, however, Chinese suppliers have become less reliable, less willing to expand and continue their sales production. New rules restricting export of drone components took effect a month ago. The traditional Chinese drone producers who produce millions annually outpacing other countries with DJI holding over 90 percent of the global consumer drone market, have suddenly become sales-shy.
 
Ukrainian soldiers of the 24th Separate Mechanized Brigade, named after King Danylo, prepare to operate the test flight a new FPV drone in the training area as soldiers test their new military equipment as Russia-Ukraine war continues in Donetsk Oblast, Ukraine on August 03, 2023.
Ukrainian soldiers of the 24th Separate Mechanized Brigade, named after King Danylo, prepare to operate the test flight a new FPV drone in the training area as soldiers test their new military equipment as Russia-Ukraine war continues in Donetsk Oblast, Ukraine on August 03, 2023.
Wojciech Grzedzinski/Anadolu Agency via Getty Images

In the past few months sales of drones and components to Ukrainians by Chinese companies have been cut back. Those Chinese firms agreeable to selling their products often require buyers to resort to the use of intermediary networks for their purchase orders. Ukraine is in dire need of drones and constituent parts and is prepared to beg, borrow and smuggle what they need. Through use in the conflict, an estimated 10,000 drones monthly require replacement.

There are fears rising that China's new restrictive rules on sale of drone components could deleteriously impact the supply chain that Ukraine is so dependent on. Which advantages Russia. Direct drone shipments by Chinese companies to Ukraine totaled just over $200,000 in 2023 to June. Russia, on the other hand, received $14.5 million in direct shipments during that same time frame.

However, Ukraine managed to obtain millions in Chinese-produced drones and components, most arriving through European intermediaries, according to customs data. Drones for reconnaissance, to drop bombs, and to use as guided missiles remain the Ukraine military's focus. $1 billion has  been earmarked for a program to support drone start-ups and drone acquisition efforts.
 
Ukrainian operators fly DJI drones at a training area in August.
Ukrainian operators fly DJI drones at a training area in August.
 
Mavic, an easy-to-use quadcopter produced by DJI during the first weeks of the war were what Ukrainian soldiers relied on. Then the company announced plans to discontinue its business in Russia and Ukraine. Volunteers took to bringing in the copters by the thousands to Ukraine, mostly from Europe, while Russia discovered new channels through friendly neighbors, at the same time continuing to order and receive Chinese export drones.

Hobbyist racing drones strapped with bombs to act as human-guided missiles are also on the front line scene this year. F.P.V.s, for first-person view, in reference to the manner in which the drones are remotely piloted with virtual-reality-like goggles are sold by a few mostly Chinese companies, along with their components. Volunteers and companies work to acquire as many F.P.V.s as possible, with Ukrainian suppliers reckoning that soldiers likely require up to 30,000 of the devices monthly.

In competition with Russia to acquire F.P.V.s from Chinese firms, Ukraine deals with Russia having the advantage since it can bid higher and order larger batches. From the perspective of Chinese producers, additionally, selling to Russia has the advantage of being politically safer, in view of the solidarity expressed between Moscow and Beijing.

"Today, we virtually do not use any Chinese components", revealed Ukrspecsystems, a Kyiv company that manufacturers fixed-wing reconnaissance drones, a result of supply chain issues leading it to search for the requisite supplies beyond China.

A Ukrainian soldier in Kherson prepares to operate a commercial DJI Mavic drone

 

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Tuesday, July 11, 2023

"All Measures Being Taken To Counter Threat"

"Our intelligence says that the Russian military has placed objects resembling explosives on the roof of several power units of the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant."
"[Russia is planning to] simulate an attack on the plant. Or they could have some other kind of scenario."
"But in any case, the world sees — and cannot fail to see — that the only source of danger to the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant is Russia. And no one else."
"Radiation is a threat to everyone in the world, and the nuclear plant must be fully protected from any radiation incidents."
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy

"The IAEA experts have requested additional access that is necessary to confirm the absence of mines or explosives."
"In particular, access to the rooftops of reactor units 3 and 4 is essential."
IAEA

"Operational data [suggests that] explosive devices [have been placed on the roof of Zaporizhzhia’s third and fourth reactors Tuesday, and that an attack is possible] in the near future."
"If detonated, they would not damage the reactors but would create an image of shelling from the Ukrainian side. [The Ukrainian army stands] ready to act under any circumstances."
Ukrainian military statement
 A view shows the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant outside Enerhodar in the Zaporizhzhia region, Russian-controlled Ukraine, June 15, 2023.
Ukraine and Russia have traded accusations of plotting attacks at the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant
"[Ukraine plans to drop a] dirty bomb [containing nuclear waste taken from another of the country’s five nuclear stations on Zaporizhzhia.]"
"Under cover of darkness overnight on July 5, the Ukrainian military will try to attack the Zaporizhzhia station using long-range precision equipment and kamikaze attack drones."
Renat Karchaa, adviser, Rosenergoatom, Russia’s nuclear network
 
"The situation is quite tense because there is indeed a great threat of sabotage by the Kyiv regime, which could be catastrophic in its consequences."
"The Kyiv regime has repeatedly demonstrated its willingness to do anything. Therefore, all measures are being taken to counter such a threat."
Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov
Fears are on the rise that Russia may be preparing to blow up Ukraine's Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant, after five large objects were photographed on the roof. Satellite images taken by San Francisco-based Planet Labs on July 5 showed that packages had been placed on the roof of Reactor No. 4 of Europe's largest nuclear power plant. The objects cannot be identified, but the Ukrainian president has given warning Russia has plans to blow up the plant, then blame it on Ukraine.

The nuclear power plant has been under control of Russian forces from the first few days of the war forward. Its location on the southern bank of the Dnipro River forms the front line of the conflict. It was reported last week that Russian forces had given orders for Ukrainian staff to leave the plant. To the present, the International Atomic Energy Agency has been given permission to inspect some areas of the plant, but access is limited. Improved access to the sites and in particular to the reactors' roofs are now being demanded by the UN's nuclear watchdog.
 
https://i.dailymail.co.uk/1s/2023/07/07/15/72965623-12275453-image-a-16_1688739964968.jpg
New satellite images show unidentifiable shapes at Ukraine's Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant
 
Officials at the Russian nuclear agency Rosenergoatom, deny accusations. In their turn they have reversed the Ukrainian version, claiming that it is Ukrainian forces that are planning an attack on their own power plant. Each previously has accused the other of planning a "Red Flag" atrocity for propaganda purposes. They accused one another of blowing up the Kakhovka Dam in May, which caused emergency-level flooding of downstream towns and cities.

Experts downplay the fallout of an explosion at the Soviet-built Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant: "Its six reactors have been shut down for over ten months, and are no longer making enough heat to cause a prompt radiological release", according to the diagnosis of the American Nuclear Society. The plant's six pressurized water reactors, five of which are in "cold shutdown" where control rods are fully inserted, suppressing the fission chain reaction in the fuel, has lead to a timely cool-off.

The sixth reactor is in "hot shutdown", where enough heat to drive turbines is not being produced to make electricity as would happen during normal operation, a move by the Russians now operating the plant. The reactor, however, is kept hot enough to produce steam for other operations taking place at the plant and it is this reactor that will require more cooling water than the other five.
"It's like a conversation and I'm pushing to get as much access as possible. [There was] marginal improvement."
"I'm optimistic that we are going to be able to go up and see [the rooftops]."
"I'm pretty confident that we will get this authorization. This is a combat zone, it's an active warzone, so sometimes it may take a day or two to get authorization."
International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) director general Rafael Grossi 
Rescue workers and police officers attend anti-radiation drills for case of an emergency situation at Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant, amid Russia's attack on Ukraine, in Zaporizhzhia, Ukraine June 29, 2023.
Ukrainian officials have been holding anti-radiation drills in case of a nuclear catastrophe at the Zaporizhzhia plant.

 

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Friday, August 12, 2022

Playing With Nuclear Fire

 

"Every morning we wake up and see that they have hit only residential homes."
"Our forces don't shoot back because the 30km (19-mile) zone around the power station is sacred. You don't want to shoot there. But the Russians are terrorists. There's nothing sacred to them."  
"It's meant to scare us, [Rockets have hit Nikopol every night since the middle of July]."
Local Businessman
A covered Russian tank outside the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant on 4 August
A covered Russian tank outside the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant on 4 August   ENERGOATOM/Reuters
"As the initiator and main instigator of the Ukrainian crisis, Washington, while imposing unprecedented comprehensive sanctions on Russia, continues to supply arms and military equipment to Ukraine."
"Their ultimate goal is to exhaust and crush Russia with a protracted war and the cudgel of sanctions."
Beijing Ambassador to Moscow Zhang Hanhui

"The cowardly Russians can't do anything more so they strike towns ignobly, hiding at the Zaporizhzhia atomic power station."
Andrei Yermak, chief of staff to President Volodymyr Zelenskyy
The outliers of the United Nations Security Council in lock-step denial of representing tyrannical governments coveting territory of neighbours and exercising their ambitious penchant for bullying and threatening and finally committing to a military advance to correct historical errors so they can 'reclaim' a territorial prize by absorbing another sovereign country's geography into their greater grasping fold. The mirror image of Moscow's 'special military operation' to bring Ukraine kicking and screaming back into the Soviet Union fold, is reflected in Beijing's plan to violently disabuse Taiwan that it is a separate country.

Mutual support for one another's irenic plans of absorption through violent takeover enables them to give each other comfort. Russia's experience with the West firmly clamping down on sanctions to fully impress on the Kremlin that its actions assault international norms presents as an example to Beijing, labouring under similar sanctions and for aspirationally awaiting the opportunity when it too feels prepared to launch an all-out conflict with Taiwan to achieve its goal of an 'individed China' 

Ukraine raises the alarm once again over the Russian military occupying the Ukrainian nuclear power plant representing the largest such facility in all of Europe, in a dangerously cavalier manner. Ranging from the storage of explosives and military equipment in sensitive areas of the nuclear plant, to recklessly firing off missiles from the plant's campus at surrounding towns where Ukrainian military units are stationed in the hope of driving out the Russian troops to reclaim the plant and its security.

Moscow for its part insists that the town Ukraine identifies as being targeted by Russian troops from within the power plant's footprint, Marhanets, claims that the Ukrainian military, stationed there, is using it as a staging platform to send rockets to hit Russian soldiers at the Zaporizhzhia plant. The alarm was raised in the West when the United Nations atomic energy watchdog warned of a potential nuclear disaster with the current situation, leading the Group of Seven leading industrialized countries to tell Russia it must return the plant to Ukraine.

This was once the Group of Eight, but after Russian rebels began their conflict in Ukraine's eastern province of the Donbas and Russia seized Crimea in 2014, Vladimir Putin was disinvited and the group reverted to its original members, as the Group of Seven. Ukraine's state nuclear power company Enerhoatom, warns that Russian shelling has compromised the plant, causing critical damage to two areas of the plant, creating the potential for devastation.

Containers with radioactive material might, they warn, also come under danger of shelling. In its own defence, Russia resorts to its usual stance of claiming to be acting responsibly, that it is Ukraine that is responsible for any dangerous situations eventuating because of its military's carelessness, repeating that Russian troops behave responsibly and never target civilians.
 
Ukrainian technicians remain at the plant, working to ensure whenever an emergency arises they're present to use their expertise in safety and security of the plant forestalling the possibility of a disaster. Needless to say, they have no control over what Russian troops do. What they do is shell surrounding towns from the relative safety of the nuclear plant in the knowledge that Ukrainian troops cannot afford to strike back and risk creating a more dangerous situation. 
 
According to Kyiv, roughly 500 Russian soldiers with heavy vehicles and weapons remain at the plant where they are behaving responsibly, ensuring the safety of the complex, as the Kremlin has it. The former's statement can be guaranteed to be correct, the latter's, true to form is a risible canard. Moscow and Vladimir Putin never uttered a lie they couldn't be proud of. 
"I am extremely concerned by the shelling yesterday at Europe’s largest nuclear power plant, which underlines the very real risk of a nuclear disaster that could threaten public health and the environment in Ukraine and beyond."
"The IAEA has received information about this serious situation – the latest in a long line of increasingly alarming reports from all sides."
?According to Ukraine, there has been no damage to the reactors themselves and no radiological release. However, there is damage elsewhere on the site.?
"Military action jeopardizing the safety and security of the Zaporizhzya nuclear power plant is completely unacceptable and must be avoided at all costs.?
"Any military firepower directed at or from the facility would amount to playing with fire, with potentially catastrophic consequences."
"I strongly and urgently appeal to all parties to exercise the utmost restraint in the vicinity of this important nuclear facility, with its six reactors."
Director General of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), Rafael Mariano Grossi

The Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant outside the Russian-controlled city of Enerhodar, Ukraine.
The Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant outside the Russian-controlled city of Enerhodar, Ukraine. Photograph: Alexander Ermochenko/Reuters

 

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Wednesday, October 20, 2021

See No Evil

See No Evil

 Members of Azov battalion attend a rally on the Volunteer Day honouring fighters, who joined the Ukrainian armed forces during a military conflict in the country's eastern regions, in central Kiev, Ukraine (credit: GLEB GARANICH/REUTERS)
Members of Azov battalion attend a rally on the Volunteer Day honouring fighters, who joined the Ukrainian armed forces during a military conflict in the country's eastern regions, in central Kiev, Ukraine (credit: GLEB GARANICH/REUTERS)
"If Canada is going to be providing military training to foreign forces, then it is our responsibility to know we are not training neo-Nazis"
"It is our obligation to our Canadian veterans who sacrificed so much defeating fascism in Europe."
Jaime Kirzner-Roberts policy director, Friends of Simon Wiesenthal Center

"[Our group's members serve at present as officers in Ukraine's military and] have succeeded in establishing co-operation with foreign colleagues from such countries as France, the United Kingdom, Canada, the U.S.A. Germany and Poland."
"[We support] right patriots, nationalists, conservatives and Christians currently defending the streets of Kyiv from [Kyiv Pride event] perverts from the LGBT movement and their left-liberal sympathizers."
Ukraine fascist militia, Centuria
 
"White supremacy and neo-Nazism are unacceptable and have no place in our world. I am very pleased that the recently passed omnibus prevents the U.S. from providing arms and training assistance to the neo-Nazi Azov Battalion fighting in Ukraine."
"The State Department should pressure Kiev to dissociate itself with this group and investigate whether any of our weapons or training have already been provided to them,"
"This is just one of many reasons why lawmakers should be concerned about channeling huge amounts of weapons into this volatile conflict zone."
U.S.Rep. Ro Khanna (D-Calif.)

"Evidence uncovered in this paper suggests that since 2018, the Hetman Petro Sahaidachny National Army Academy (NAA), Ukraine’s premier military education institution and a major hub for Western military assistance to the country, has been home to Centuria, a self-described order of 'European traditionalist' military officers that has the stated goals of reshaping the country’s military along right-wing ideological lines and defending the 'cultural and ethnic identity' of European peoples against 'Brussels’ politicos and bureaucrats'. The group envisions a future where 'European right forces are consolidated and national traditionalism is established as the disciplining ideological basis for the European peoples'."
"The group, led by individuals with ties to Ukraine’s internationally active far-right Azov movement, has attracted multiple members, including current and former officer cadets of the NAA now serving in the Armed Forces of Ukraine. Apparent members have appeared in photos giving Nazi salutes and made seemingly extremist statements online."
Illiberalism Studies Program
A new report from an American university says far-right extremists in Ukraine’s military have bragged they received training from the Canadian Forces and other NATO nations. ANATOLII STEPANOV / AFP/GETTY IMAGES

George Washington University in Washington, D.C. recently published a study out of one of its institutes where social media accounts of the far-right group Centuria in Ukraine were tracked, documenting the fascist group's Ukrainian military members with Nazi salutes as they engage in the promotion of white nationalism, praising Nazi SS units' members. Nostalgia for another time and place where fascism threatened the world order and committed the gravest atrocities against humankind in the mid-20th Century during a time of a global-churning world war.
 
Oleksiy Kuzmenko on Twitter: ""Everything anti-Ukrainian will be  annihilated". Ukraine's internationally active far-right Azov movement  yesterday rolled out a new organization - the "Centuria" - in a dramatic  ceremony attended by what

The Ukrainian nationalists militia group Centuria has been active since 2018 at the Hetman Petro Sahaidachy National Army Academy in Ukraine, according to the George Washington University's Institute for European, Russian and Eurasian Studies. Members of Centuria have left their handprint on social media, claiming to have received military training from the Canadian military, as well as having taken part in military exercises with Canada.

This is hugely disturbing news to institutions dedicated to vigilance for the appearance of fascist groups as threats to world stability. The Canadian military was apprised of the presence of neo-Nazis within their own services in the past year and speedily made efforts to root them out, claiming it has no tolerance for fascists operating within its ranks. Organizers with Centuria boasted on social media of their members currently serving as officers in Ukraine's military establishment.

The University of Washington report on their study has been widely read and was of huge interest to the Simon Wiesenthal Center dedicated to fighting fascism in memory of the institutional state obliteration of six million Jewish lives during the Holocaust years taking place within the theatre of the Second World War. The Center for Holocaust Studies wrote to the Acting Chief of the Canadian Defence Staff, General Wayne Eyre and to Canada's Defence Minister Harjit Sajjan asking them to launch an investigation.

It is the Simon Wiesenthal's position that the Canadian Forces should conduct an investigation to determine whether its troops have been involved in training neo-Nazis in Ukraine and to further devise a way to make certain military instruction through Canadian Forces' auspices do not reoccur. The response from the Canadian Forces was to advise that Ukraine must vet its own security forces; the Canadian military is not proactively engaged in determining backgrounds of foreign trainees, nor do they search out support for far-right groups.

Ukraine's government denies the very existence of Centuria. The hands-off approach of the Canadian military has understandably failed to quell the unease of the protesting Wiesenthal Center. In 2015 when the decision was reached to send Canadian troops to Ukraine, the then-Canadian defence minister was aware of the likely presence of far-right extremists in the Ukraine military and discussions were led on avoidance in training extremists.

The decision was reached to stipulate that units of the Ukrainian National Guard exclusively would be trained, avoiding the training opportunities that some ad hoc militias that had appeared in Ukraine at that time, seeking to take opportunities for themselves would be avoided. The Canadian defence critic MP Jack Harris however, gave warning that far-right groups were integrating themselves into the Ukraine military and the difficulty that would ensue attempting to isolate extremists.

A new report from an American university says far-right extremists in Ukraine’s military have bragged they received training from the Canadian Forces and other NATO nations.

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Wednesday, October 06, 2021

Military Training for Ukraine's Ultra-Nationalists

 

Training Ukrainian Neo-Nazis

"The Ukrainian military's failure to check Centuria activities suggests a level of tolerance on its part for the apparent proliferation of far-right ideology and influence within the Armed Forces of Ukraine."
George Washington University study

"[We support] right patriots, nationalists, conservatives and Christians currently defending the streets of Kyiv from perverts from the LGBT movement and their left-liberal sympathizers."
Centuria statement

"The Department of National Defence and the Canadian Armed Forces are strongly opposed to the glorification of Nazism and all forms of racism, racial discrimination, xenophobia, intolerance and extremism."
Lt.-Cmdr.Julie McDonald, spokeswoman, Canadian Armed Forces

"Clearly Canada has a responsibility when it comes to who it trains."
"It's not good enough just to leave it to the Ukrainians. The end result is the fact that Canadian troops may have trained Ukrainian Neo-Nazis."
Bernie Farber, head, Canadian Anti-Hate Network
A new report from an American university says far-right extremists in Ukraine’s military have bragged they received training from the Canadian Forces and other NATO nations.
A newly-released study from an institute within George Washington University in Washington, D.C tracked social media accounts of the Centuria far-right group, revealing that the extremists brag of having received military training from the Canadian Forces, along with other NATO-aligned national militaries. The study documented members of the Ukrainian military giving Nazi salutes, promoting white nationalism, and giving praise to members of Nazi SS units.

Active since 2018 at the Hetman Petro Sahaidachny National Army Academy, the far-right group has ensconced itself in the country's military through the country's premier education institute, which is also a major hub for assistance from western military sources in the country, Canada included, according to the report from George Washington University's Institute for European, Russian and Eurasian Studies.

Through social media, members of Centuria revealed their training from the Canadian military along with participation in military exercises with Canada. Centuria organizers informed their following that their members served as officers in Ukraine's military, and "have succeeded in establishing co-operation with foreign colleagues from such countries as France, the United Kingdom, Canada, the United States, Germany and Poland", reports the Institute.

At the United Kingdom's royal Military Academy Sandhurst, one group member graduated in 2020 after receiving officer training, while another Centuria member in 2019 attended the German Army Officer Academy in Dresden. Centuria publicly supported a rally held by Ukrainian far-right groups in countering the "Kyiv Pride" LGBTQ event.

The National Army Academy, in communication with the university researchers denied Centuria operated within its ranks, noting it has no tolerance for extremism in denial of the report's photographs of NAA cadets giving Nazi salutes and promoting far-right materials. The United Jewish Community of Ukraine accused a NAA cadet of acting as a firearms instructor for a far-right group, and of spreading viral anti-Semitic propaganda.

Lt.-Cmdr McDonald of the Canadian Forces explained that it doesn't perform background checks on those assigned to train with its forces from abroad; its expectation is that Ukraine would check its own security forces' allegiances. Should Canadian military personnel, on the other hand, view first-hand any evidence of extremism,they would refuse training for those involved. They do not actively search out signs of support for far-right causes.

The university researchers were informed by Ukraine's Ministry of Defence that neither does it screen those entering the military or military cadets for extremist views and ties, stating concerns about Centuria were baseless; there was no such organization. In 2015 when Canada as part of NATO facing down Russian expansionism in Ukraine, sent troops to the area, concerns relating to such training were raised when Canadian military leaders discussed how they might avoid training extremists.

They decided to stipulate that only Ukrainian National Guard and army units would be trained not including any of the ad hoc militias that had appeared at that time in the country. One Canadian Member of Parliament had warned of the integration of far-right groups into the military and that being the case it would be difficult to identify extremists with a view to eliminating their presence during training sessions. 

The ultra-nationalist Azov Battalion movement with its links to the far right and Neo Nazis was the subject in 2018 of the U.S. Congress banning the use of U.S. funds to provide arms, training and other aid to them. At the same time, Centuria has firm ties to the Azov movement.

A new report from an American university says far-right extremists in Ukraine’s military have bragged they received training from the Canadian Forces and other NATO nations.

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