Good Friends and Neighbours : Russia/North Korea

"I firmly believe that the heroic Russian army and people will brilliantly inherit their victories and traditions and vigorously demonstrate their noble dignity and honour on the two fronts of military operations and building a powerful nation."

North Korean leader Kim Jong Un

 

"Korea is our neighbor. One way or another, we must build good neighborly relations with our neighbors."

"Yes, there are certain special [circumstances] associated with the Korean peninsula, we are discussing this, discussing it openly."

"[Russia] never violates anything, and in this case, we are not going to violate anything either."

Russian President Vladimir Putin

 

"[Moscow sees] the potential for cooperation both in aircraft manufacturing and in other industries [with North Korea]."

"We see the potential for cooperation both in aircraft manufacturing and in other industries – this is especially relevant for achieving the tasks our countries face to achieve technological sovereignty."

 Russian Deputy Prime Minister, Denis Manturov

North Korea's leader Kim Jong-un shakes hands with Russia’s President Vladimir Putin during their meeting at the Vostochny cosmodrome in Russia's Amur region. Photograph: KCNA via KNS/AFP/Getty Images

North Korea's leader is given to gushingly lavish language when expressing his pleasure at incidents where he is given the respect he craves, as a world leader of consequence. One, lamentably, whose citizenry is food-insecure while their leader's treasury priorities embrace costly research and production of highly technical weaponry. 'Noble dignity', 'honour' and 'heroism' has been conspicuously absent in the actions of the Russian military with its Kremlin-ordered invasion of Ukraine. An inconvenient detail that Kim flicks away if he is even aware of such mundane items.

Both leaders, however, facing the opprobrium of much of the free world for their threats to world peace in their aspirational overreach for power and recognition finding it useful to befriend one another as think-alike colleagues. Each of whom has something of substance to offer the other. Russia would like more armaments, rocketry that North Korea can provide, and North Korea would appreciate some assistance with its own agenda in satellite technology.

 

So Kim was pleased to express "full and unconditional support" for Moscow's invasion, an echo of the attitude of his mentor Xi Jinping. Pyongyang, he asserted, is prepared to stand forever with the Kremlin against the provocations and threats issued by "anti-imperialists". They had ample time to discuss their concerns and their mutual problems and solutions during a four-hour meeting at Russia's Far East spaceport. If Mr. Putin planned to impress his North Korean counterpart that was the venue that would do it.

 

The agreement they likely reached without too much of a stretch would have been a deal to provide Russia with North Korean artillery shells and antitank missiles to help fill the gap in Russia's dwindling stock  as the war in Ukraine carries on, and Ukraine has proven itself able to give as well as it gets. Kim's expectation is that the compliment would be returned in the sharing of Russian expertise in space technology. 

Kim is after Russian help to develop military reconnaissance satellites, crucial in his agenda, to enhance his nuclear-capable missile threat. The arrangement Putin made to meet with Kim at the Vostochny Cosmodrone, was an open code of agreement. Belying Russia's Security Council role in voting against giving aid to North Korea in the sphere of advancing Kim's military ambitions. But Putin denies that Russia is flaunting the sanctions that prohibit sourcing weapons from Pyongyang.

 

The private train of North Korea's leader Kim Jong Un is seen at the railway station in Komsomolsk-on-Amur in the Russian Far East on September 15  AP

 

North Korea's leader has been embarrassed and frustrated by the technical failures his researchers have encountered in getting a first military spy satellite into orbit. So he has  high expectations of his great good friend, Vladimir Putin. And Mr. Putin went out of his way to courteously extend his great regard for Kim as a world leader of note by meeting Kim's limousine at the entrance to the launch facility.

The issue revolves around North Korea's likely possession of tens of millions of elderly artillery shells and rockets of Soviet designs in his possession which could boost the Russian army's chances of success in Ukraine. North Korea has previously been accused by the United States of providing Russia with arms, of selling artillery shells to the Russian mercenary group Wagner, although both Russia and North Korea deny any such claims.

The international sanctions Russia has supported against buying arms from or providing rocket technology to North Korea would of course be violated should any such agreement come to pass. Kim asked countless questions abut the rockets from a Russian space official at the Soyuz-2 space rocket launch, as a reflection of his keen interest and preoccupation with space technology.

Statements for public consumption of a non-controversial nature included talk of "lots of interesting projects in areas such as transportation and agriculture", noted Mr. Putin. Moscow prepared to provide its neighbour with humanitarian aid, as well as opportunities for "working as equals". Military cooperation? nada; Russia abides by the sanctions prohibiting procurement of weaponry from Pyongyang. Or not.

North Korean leader Kim Jong-un responds as Russian President Vladimir Putin sends him off from the Vostochny cosmodrome Photograph: 朝鮮通信社/AP

"Extreme Uneasiness and Horror"

"[The test launch of the Hwasong 18 intercontinental ballistic missile on Thursday would make enemies] experience a clearer security crisis,and constantly strike extreme uneasiness and horror into them by taking fatal and offensive counteractions until they abandon their senseless thinking and reckless acts."

North Korean leader Kim Jong Un 

"[The development of the Hwasong-18 will] extensively reform the strategic deterrence components of the Democratic Peoples' Republic of Korea, radically promote the effectiveness of its nuclear counterattack posture and bring about a change in the practicality of its offensive military strategy."

North Korean state media outlet KCNA

 

“At an earlier stage of North Korea’s missile program, liquid-fuel ICBMs represented the quickest and easiest path to achieving the country’s historic goal of being able to threaten the continental United States."

“The addition of solid-fuel ICBMs to the missile force would make it a more credible strategic deterrent by providing a more capable, less vulnerable pre-emptive and retaliatory capability."

Joseph Dempsey, research associate, International Institute for Strategic Studies

North Korea says it launched a new type of Hwasong-18 Intercontinental ballistic missile using solid fuel, on Thursday, according to state media KCNA. Courtesy Rodong Sinmun

Both North Korea and China enjoy making extravagantly pompous statements referring to themselves and the place they hold in the world. they both share a sense of awe of their pre-eminence that exists mostly in their collective mindset, and seem to believe their every utterance inspires fear and loathing in the minds of their presumed detractors against whom they struggle to contain malign intentions to do them great harm, while they are themselves the paranoiac threat-masters of global violence. They ascribe to their presumed enemies all the threatening qualities that are their own.

North Korean Leader Kim Jong Un -- impressed with his own belief in his superior intelligence and profound leadership of an impoverished nation grappling constantly with food insecurity, yet heavily investing in advanced technologies meant for no purpose other than to initially intimidate and threaten and eventually to deploy in a bid to destroy the potential for those it identifies as awaiting an opportunity to destroy the Hermit Kingdom, proposing by its actions to act before they do -- presents as an amateur yet sinister director of a very bad film.

Several days ago North Korea officially announced its testing of a new solid-fuel ICBM, meant to "radically promote" the preparation of its forces for an eventual denouement of the forces that threaten its own. Experts interpret the latest provocations from North Korea as a new type of weaponry meant to facilitate missile launches with scant warning. This represents the North's first use of solid propellants in an intermediate-range ICBM. Bringing North Korea into a very specialized field of deploying missiles faster during an actual conflict.

 

 

The weapon remains in the development stage according to its defence ministry, with more time and effort required to perfect the advanced technology, warning that more tests are on the way. The country's state media released photographs of its leader witnessing the launch in the company of his sister, wife and daughter. This, in response yet again -- and predictably -- to joint exercises carried out by South Korea and the United States air forces, drills that were staged with U.S. B-52H bombers joined by F-34A, F-14 and F-15 fighter jets.

Recent U.S.-South Korean joint military exercises certainly exacerbate the situation, sending Kim into paroxysms of paranoia and leading to a series of missile tests in a sabre-rattling contest that no one would win. Japan, threatened by the North's constant barrages that enter Japan's zone of air defence, conducted separate air drills with U.S. B-52 bomber jets on Friday, with four U.S. F-35 fighters and four Japanese F-15 fighters. These are not 'games' but tense back-and-forth feeler-threats.

North Korea's largest ballistic missiles use liquid fuel, requiring loading with propellant at the launch site, time-consuming and dangerous. A former U.S. government weapons expert, Vann Van Diepen, explained that solid-fuel missiles are easier and safer to operate, requiring less logistical support, and making them harder to detect and more survivable than liquid fuel missiles. Analysts feel however, that the U.S. could distinguish between solid' or liquid-fuelled launches with early warning satellites capable of detecting differences in infrared data various missile types produce.

"For any country that operates large-scale, missile-based nuclear forces, solid-propelled missiles are an incredibly desirable capability because they don't need to be fuelled immediately prior to use."

"These capabilities are much more responsive in a time of crisis."

“I think it demonstrates technological progress, but I would not describe this as a game changer.”  

“Based on their competency with materials and engineering that we’ve seen in other areas, developing a robust enough reentry vehicle is not a substantial technical challenge,”

Ankit Panda, senior fellow, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace

"North Korea could have opted to focus on collecting data necessary to check its features at different stages than going full speed at the first launch."

"As it was a test that did not demonstrate its normal flight pattern, North Korea will likely conduct some more tests."

Kim Dong-yup, professor, University of North Korean Studies

North Korea says it launched a new type of Hwasong-18 intercontinental ballistic missile using solid fuel, on Thursday   Courtesy Rodong Sinmun