Will Israel and Turkey Soon Match F-35 Fleets at a Time of Heightened Threats?

"Since Trump entered the White House, Israel has been undergoing a steady decline in its status as the leading US partner and the only regional ally with Washington's ear."

"Following Israel's failed operation in Qatar, Doha received a US defense commitment and protective umbrella that effectively serve as an insurance policy against similar Israeli actions in the future."

"Turkey has also been drawing closer to the US, beginning with the central role it played in the agreement to end the war in Gaza."

"The status Trump granted Erdogan, including Erdogan's signature on Trump's 20-point plan, and now the sale of advanced fighter jets place Turkey in a similar position."

Zvika Haimovich,  Israel Hayom   

Trump and Erdogan   Photo AFP 

 

Qatar is privileged as a reflection of its vast treasury leading to its generosity in U.S. university investments and pleasing the American president no end with the gift of a $400M presidential jet. But it is President Donald Trump's assessment of Recep Tayyip Erdogan's persona as a strongman that elicits the president's approval of this man. It took this president no time at all to assess Syria's new (interim) president as a 'nice young man' belying his terrorist credentials, now recognizable as a dependable ally.

 

The American government's recognition of Israel as the only democracy in the Middle East, one to which it has pledged its support unremittingly in a myriad of ways, not the least of which supplying the Jewish state with technologically advanced planes and weaponry through various administrations, came full circle when Donald J. Trump was once again elected for a second term as president. The personal relationship between Mr. Trump and Israel's Benjamin Netanyahu who himself resumed another stint as Prime Minister seemed forged in steel.

 

Trump and Erdogan. A challenge to Israel's national security. Photo: Reuters

 

Unfortunately that steel has not withstood the test of time -- and not all that much time to be sure -- which opened a wedge of  unexpected distance where once there was only warmth, mutual admiration, support and cooperation. Israel, moving forward with its own homegrown defensive weaponry still remains dependent on the U.S. for its planes and where at one time it was taken for granted that the U.S. would ensure Israel had the advantage in its acquisition of U.S. advanced weaponry and planes it seems that its greatest threat aside from Iran may now be deemed by President Trump to be trusted with F-35s much to Israel's and Greece's dismay.

 

Donald Trump has ears and eyes and a mind that is capable of hearing and seeing the threats emanating against Israel by Turkey's Erdogan. But here is Erdogan promising Trump that he will return the NATO-problematic S-400 missile systems to Russia. Alternately passing them off with Russia's permission to a third party. And with the S-400 out of the way so they can no longer be perceived as a risk element with the F-35s, Erdogan is discussing the purchase of the American planes for his airforce, the 2nd largest standing military force in NATO. 

 

F-35s. Photo by MANDEL NGAN /AFP VIA GETTY IMAGES

 

When Turkey acquired Russia's S-400 batteries, it was barred from access to the advanced F-35 jets. According to Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov, the matter is "extremely sensitive".  He stated that Russia "Had contacts with the Turkish side on this matter, and we'll continue those contacts". As for Mr. Trump, he reiterated that he hadn't yet decided whether to permit Turkey to buy the Lockheed Martin Corp. F-35 jets yet. "I haven't totally made up my mind, but my inclination is to say, look, he's done everything. He's helped us in so many different ways." 

 

That's a long way from the time that saw Turkey attempting to buy U.S.-made Patriot missiles a decade ago when Washington failed to finalize a deal. Which led to Ankara's turning to Russia for the S-400s -- and the United States acted as a result to lock Ankara out of the F-35 program, invoking the Countering America's Adversaries Through Sanctions Act in 2020 to ensure that Turkey's defense industry was locked out of access to other sensitive technology.  

 

President Donald Trump, left, meets with Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan as he arrives for the NATO summit in Ankara, Turkey, Tuesday, July 7, 2026. (Osmancan Gürdoğan, Pool Photo via AP)

"To Help Israel Defend Itself"

"Israel was considering a presumptive attack against Hezbollah, but that such a decision would be conditional on approval from the United States, which has recently established a] robust American presence in the region, coupled with an enormous U.S. pressure, not seen in recent years, on Iran to de-escalate."

Yoel Guzansky, senior fellow, Institute for National Security Studies, Tel Aviv

"Israel will be as flexible as needed."

"[Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu] now understands that he needs a deal, that the country is in favour of a deal, that leaving the hostages behind would be a traumatic wound that Israel may not recover from."

Unnamed Israeli official

USS Georgia transits the Gulf, outbound from a sustainment and logistics visit in Manama, Bahrain.

Spc. William Gore/US Navy/Reuters/

Events are moving swiftly in the Middle East as eyes swivel toward the Islamic Republic of Iran and its vacillating plans: to attack once again ... or not? Rumour has it that the new president of Iran urges not to. Little doubt that the IRGC Quds group feel otherwise. Then again, the Republic's faithful proxy might just be given the order to attack in lieu of its puppet-master, leading Israel to believe an emphatic pre-emptive strike may be in order. Regardless, Iran's penchant for twisting a knife in a raw wound serves its interests for the time being, holding the Israeli population in a period of apprehensive suspense until such time as the fateful move is made.

A situation that has animated an equally suspenseful U.S. whose patronage is so very vital, leading the U.S. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin to order the USS Georgia guided-missile submarine to post-haste to the Middle East, with the USS Abraham Lincoln aircraft carrier strike group speeding its voyage to the region. A bit of release of tension for Israeli security officials. Talks between Austin and Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant preceded the announcement of the U.S.'s latest deployment, leading to efforts to "deter aggression" by Iran and Hezbollah.

The bold assassination of Ismail Haniyeh both mortified and infuriated Iranian authorities, with Ayatollah Khamenei making it quite clear in his pontificating statements that Israel must pay for its unpardonable sins against the 'international order'. Aside from the fact that he has declared the United States equally guilty. According to an Israeli official privy to conversations with security officials, Israel's assessments reveal that Iran is determined to respond by directly attacking Israel.

 

Iranian "Kheibarshekan" missile on display

 

Targeting civilian population centres -- Israel has warned Iran and Hezbollah -- would be a red line for Israel, in preparation for a spectrum of potential scenarios, none palatable, one including a scenario where Hezbollah attacks first, and then followed by Iran, revealed Yoel Guzansky, formerly an official on Israel's National Security Council.

Acting Iranian foreign minister Ali Bagheri stated "Iran will make the aggressions of the ... Israeli regime costly in a legitimate and firm action". That he actually spoke the word "Israel", bypassing the usual contemptful "Zionist entity" may be an indication of just how outraged the Republic's leaders are that Haniyeh died in the security-shelter of a Tehran government-guesthouse for particularly esteemed 'guests'.

Hezbollah's focus is on retaliation for Israel's targeting last month of one of its top commanders, Fuad Shakur, for payback in ordering the shelling of a Bedouin playground in Israel's Golan, leading to the deaths of twelve children and teens. All of this rising tension has spurred the U.S. to increase its presence since in an instance of escalation it "will want to be on the ground to help Israel to defend itself, to prevent damage, and then ensure that Israel does not respond", commented Yaakov Amidror a former major general and National Security Advisor of Israel.

 

Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei speaks during a meeting with the guests of the Islamic Unity Conference in Tehran, Iran   Office of the Iranian Supreme Leader/WANA (West Asia News Agency) via REUTERS