ECOWAS Threat of Niger Invasion

"A military intervention with no end in sight risks triggering a regional war, with catastrophic consequences for the vast Sahel that is already plagued by insecurity, displacement and poverty."

Mucahid Durmaz, senior analyst, global risk intelligence company Verisk Maplecroft 

"What we are witnessing today is both jihadi warring factions, the Islamic State group and [al-Qaeda affiliate Jama'at Nusrat al-Islam wal-Muslimin] marking their territory because of the security void caused by the coup."

"This definitely should be seen in the context of the ongoing war between the two groups."

Wassim Nasr, journalist, senior research fellow, Soufan Center think tank

Mohamed Toumba, one of the soldiers who ousted Nigerian President Mohamed Bazoum, addresses supporters of Niger's ruling junta in Niamey, Niger, Sunday, Aug. 6, 2023. (Sam Mednick/AP)

 

The standoff between Niger and ECOWAS, the West African regional bloc, and the Niger coup leaders grows more tense day by day. Niger was viewed as one of the final democratic countries in the Sahel region south of the Sahara Desert, a partner in the effort to counter growing jihadi violence linked to al-Qaeda and the Islamic State group. Until the junta coup led by anti-Democratic forces in the Niger military who unseated the democratically elected Niger President Mohamed Bazoum.

ECOWAS had demanded that the junta, three weeks after the mutiny that ousted the president, release him and allow the country to return to its pre-coup state. The deadline passed, and ECOWAS issued fresh warnings that military intervention represents an option should their demands continue to be ignored. Leaving Nigeriens preparing for a possible invasion by regional countries.

A "standby force" has been activated for the purpose of restoring order in Niger. There are no signs the standoff is anywhere close to being defused, since the coup leaders remain defiant and ECOWAS determined to restore the presidency, although both sides have given signals of an openness to resolving the crisis through peaceful means. After rebuffing the bloc's efforts at talks, the junta claimed to be open to dialogue.

Niger’s President Mohamed Bazoum smiles before a working lunch with French President Emmanuel Macron, Feb. 16, 2023 at the Elysee Palace in Paris.  (AP Photo/Michel Euler)

 

Instead of arriving at a bargaining table, the coup charged President Bazoum with "high treason", and took to recalling its ambassador from Ivory Coast. Should the bloc determine it will proceed with an invasion, it would likely be comprised of several thousand troops. The consequences, according to conflict experts, would have devastating results. Former colonial occupier of Niger, France and the U.S. have some 2,500 military personnel training the Niger military.

France and the United States, since the coup have suspended military operations, resulting in an increase in jihadi attacks. In an extremist ambush in the Tillaberi region, 17 soldiers and nearly two dozen more were wounded on Tuesday afternoon when a military detachment travelled between villages, representing the first major attack against the Niger army in six months; a worrying sign of potential escalation.

According to analysts, the longer the coup carries on, the less likely it is that an intervention will materialize, while the junta cements its grip on power. In the final analysis, forcing the international community to accept the status quo, much as it has done in Afghanistan. The 25 million Nigeriens live in one of the poorest countries in the world where residents hoped the new regime would forge a new path for the nation.

In the event, however, residents in the capital Niamey are being called upon to volunteer in assisting the army in the face of the threat by the West African regional bloc. An initiative spearheaded by locals in Niamey plans to recruit tens of thousands of volunteers from across the country to register for the Volunteers for the Defense of Niger.

Such volunteers would be expected to help with medical care and provide technical and engineering logistics, as well as fight, should the junta require that of them. "It's an eventuality. We need to be ready whenever it happens", Amsarou Bako, one of the volunteer group founders explained to Western media. Any Niger citizen over 18 years of age is asked to register, the list to be given to the junta to call upon volunteers if needed.

"We do not give a damn about ECOWAS. ECOWAS has been tailor-made for the presidents in power. And we do not need it." 

"Whether ECOWAS intervenes or not, Niger is ready for all options. We are ready. Whatever ECOWAS decides, we are ready."

Omar Amadou, Niamey resident

Supporters of Niger’s ruling junta gather at the start of a protest called to fight for the country’s freedom and push back against foreign interference in Niamey, Niger, Aug. 3, 2023. (AP Photo/Sam Mednick)

"This is the time for our citizens to test their resistance against the dark moments." 

"In order to form a federal democracy, which all ethnic brothers who have been suffering various kinds of oppressions from the dictatorship for decades really desired, this revolution is the chance for us to put our efforts together."

"Despite our differences in the past, this is the time we must grip our hands together to end the dictatorship for good."

Mahn Win Khaing Than, acting head, Committee for Representing the Union Parliament

 

Despite repeated demands of the international community, including South Korea, there are an increasing number of victims in Myanmar due to violent acts of the military and police authorities."

South Korean Foreign Ministry

 

"This accusation [against Suu Kyi of minor charges] is the most hilarious joke."

"She might have other weaknesses but she doesn't have weakness in moral principle."

Lawyer Khin Maung Zaw

Protesters lined roads with car tires and set them alight to separate themselves from the security forces  Getty Images

 In view of the military junta's violent crackdown on the relentless protests roiling Myanmar following the February 1 coup that removed Aung San Suu Kyi and her elected government on February 1, restoring her to house arrest while arresting member officials of her National League for Democracy party (several of whom have died in custody), Britain has urged its citizens to leave the country. 

New charges have been levelled against Suu Kyi behind the trifling accusations of having sidestepped coronavirus rules and having in her possession illegal radios. According to Brigadier-General Zaw Min Tun, a junta spokesman, Suu Kyi had accepted gold and illegal payments to the value of $600,000 while in government.

Security forces in the troubled country continue to crack down on protesters refusing the pleas of the military junta to convince them that the military administration is best for the country, that when matters settle down there will be a return to elections and 'democracy'. Clearly the November election that swept the polls returning the National League for Democracy and its leader Aung San Suu Kyi to power was unsatisfactory in the opinion of the military.

 

Security forces used live rounds against protesters in Hlaing Tharyar   Reuters

More violent and bloody days this weekend, with an estimated additional 38 people having been killed. The British foreign office gave warning that "political tension and unrest are widespread since the military takeover and levels of violence are rising." South Korea, in view of the turmoil and violence, has stated its intention to suspend defence exchanges. It will reconsider development aid to Myanmar.

 

By Friday, over 70 protesters were killed since the military seized power, according to the Assistance Association for Political Prisoners advocacy group. Friday saw memorials held for some of the victims. Seoul plans the suspension of defence exchanges and to ban arms exports, limit exports of other strategic items, reconsider development aid and grant humanitarian exemptions permitting Myanmar nationals to remain in South Korea until such time that the situation improves.

 

A night protest took place in another part of Yangon on Sunday   Reuters

In Yangon and a number of other cities and towns witnesses posted photographs on social media and news organizations of riot police and armed soldiers confronting the protesters with violent responses. A Polish journalist was arrested and a Japanese journalist was held briefly while reporting on a protest. A hospital in Hakha, Western Chin state saw riot police and armed soldiers forcing 30 patients to leave, evicting staff from on-site housing.

 

Hospitals and universities across Myanmar have seen occupations by soldiers as attempts are made to crush the civil disobedience movement that arose when government employees such as doctors and teachers began responding to the coup, and following violence. The movement has expanded toward a general strike paralyzing many sectors of the economy, infuriating the military.

 

Suu Kyi, 75, faces four mischievous charges, such as illegally importing six walkie-talkie radios and flouting coronavirus curbs. The addition of corruption charges is being read as a plan to see that harsher penalties accrue, to send her to prison for years, and out of the way of the military junta with which she had practised an at-arms-length cooperative administration. 

Property set ablaze in Yangon's industrial neighbourhood of Hlaing Tharyar lights up the night sky   EPA

 

The protesters believe that China has been encouraging the military junta in its crackdown on the peaceful protests. China did in fact ensure that there would be no official censure of Myanmar's military junta for the coup and the following violence in reaction to the people's rejection of the coup against their legitimately re-elected choice of state head. 

 

The protests have deliberately chosen to target Chinese-owned businesses as a direct state of their rejection of Chinese interference in the country's affairs. According to Beijing reporting sources, people armed with iron bars, axes and petrol had set alight and damaged 10 Chinese facilities - mostly clothing production or storage factories - in Yangon where a Chinese hotel was also attacked. 

"[Some Chinese] factories [in Hlaing Tharyar and neighbouring Shwepyitha] were looted and destroyed and many Chinese staff were injured and trapped."

"[Myanmar must] take further effective measures to stop all acts of violence, punish the perpetrators in accordance with the law and ensure the safety of life and property of Chinese companies and personnel in Myanmar."

Chinese Embassy in Myanmar