"[There
is a will and a determination to] reassert and enforce the Monroe
Doctrine to restore American preeminence in the Western Hemisphere, and
to protect our homeland and our access to key geographies throughout the
region."
"[And
to] deny non-Hemispheric competitors the ability to position forces ...
or to own or control strategically vital assets in our Hemisphere."
U.S. (Trump) National Security Strategy
"It's a policy now of might is right -- not only tariff baton to tantrum diplomacy, but might is right."
"And
Trump's statements recently about Greenland, about 'fixing' Mexico,
even about Colombia and Cuba should put Canada on alert footing."
" -- There's a new sheriff in the hemisphere."
"Canada should not be complacent. [This] should set off alarm bells in Edmonton, Ottawa and beyond."
"[Trump could use the Venezuelan oil economy] as leverage against Canada."
Michael Bociurkiw, global affairs analyst, senior fellow, Atlantic Council
 |
| Vehicles drive past the El Palito refinery in Puerto Cabello, Venezuela. (AP Photo/Matias Delacroix) |
"I
don't think Canada is in his sights at the moment. Canada has done
quite a good job of diffusing that ... and is benefiting from the fact
that Trump is looking elsewhere."
"I think Canada's sort of at the bottom of the list ... but not out of the woods."
Bronwen Maddox, director, chief executive, Chatham House
"[Trump's
fixation] to exert U.S. military, economic and political will
everywhere in the Western Hemisphere without impediment [uses oil as a
pretext]."
"[Although
the Trump administration talks about taking over Greenland] let's think
seriously about what that means. It doesn't mean kidnapping the leader.
It doesn't mean putting a thousand forces on the ground and planting a
flag."
"I
don't think that's the type of thing the administration is willing to
do. They don't want to do anything hard. They just want to do big,
flashy things."
Jennifer
Kavanagh, senior fellow, director, military analysis, Defense
Priorities, adjunct professor Georgetown University Center for Security
Studies
 |
| U.S. President Donald Trump addresses House Republican lawmakers during
their annual policy retreat on Jan. 6 in Washington. His increasingly
bellicose stance on taking over Greenland and the capture of Venezuelan
President Nicolás Maduro are triggering questions about what he may have
in mind for Canada. (Evan Vucci/The Associated Press) |
The
world is to understand that it was given due notice through the
National Security Strategy released by the Trump administration of its
seriousness in reasserting itself as the Northern Hemisphere hegemon.
Its allies can consider themselves part players in a supporting role to
achieve that dominant position on behalf of their more powerful,
aggressive neighbour. The first real-time drama to illustrate the
direction in which the U.S. is headed was its surprise military raid in
Caracas to take Venezuelan leader Nicolas Maduro into U.S. 'custody'.
 |
| Instagram / Emery Forbes |
American
domination of the Western Hemisphere was thus set in motion. A double
purpose achieved: freeing Venezuelans from the corrupt, distorted and
ruinous reign of a committed Bolivarian revolutionary and setting the
rehearsal stage for neighbourly cooperation which some might consider
enforced manipulation. Nothing, it seems obvious, is out of the question
as a coercive tool; economic, legal, illegal, military coercion
practised with ease by the schoolyard bully for the good of all
concerned.
Some
of the goals have been neatly lined up, merely awaiting fulfillment;
stated initially as a proprietary wish list: seizing the Panama Canal,
claiming Greenland, and absorbing Canada as the '51st state'. Those
concerned nations put on notice. Mr. Trump much prefers diplomacy to act
as the cooperative motivator, but to achieve his various goals, he
offers his opinion that nothing is out of order, including the last-gasp
military option, although economic deprivation could work to his
advantage as well.
Following the U.S. intervention in Venezuela, some analysts believe -- Chatham House in this instance -- that "Canada,
Panama, and Greenland, which fall within that geographical definition,
have good cause for concern about the president's intentions -- and the
lengths to which he may go in pursuing them."
Trump
aide Stephen Miller's wife Katie Miller posted an image of the American
flag superimposed on a map of Greenland, on X. "SOON" appeared on that
image, posted shortly after the Venezuela intervention. On CNN, Stephen
Miller stated that Greenland "should be part of the United States. Nobody's going to fight the United States militarily over the future of Greenland".
That's true. Who would challenge the U.S. over its annexation of a
Danish island? Denmark has vigorously and determinedly refused to hand
Greenland over to the U.S. and Greenland's autonomous leaders have done
the same.
But
these are two members of NATO. NATO is invested in its stout military
alliance among democratic states with the proviso that an attack against
one is answerable in defence by the entire membership. NATO would
crater under that kind of pressure from the United States, an
indefensible move to destroy the sovereignty of a member-nation. Trump
hasn't ruled out diplomacy or direct purchase before resorting to
military action; the first two options have been refused, the third
would destroy the integrity of the alliance. Inconveniences that Mr.
Trump is convinced he can overcome.
The
Trumpian mercantile and military domination, its ongoing moves to
ensure that there are none who would attempt to block his intentions
represent a disorder in the community of which the U.S. is an integral
part. U.S. Secretary of State Marc Rubio, the standout member of the
senior Trump administration whose principles leave nothing yet to be
desired, had done his best to negate the prospect of the military
option. Chatham House's Bronwen Maddox believes that while Greenland may
face a real threat, the risk that Canada faces seems more hypothetical
-- despite President Trump having mused that he wouldn't need a military
move when he could accomplish an economic collapse for Canada.
Both
Maddox and Kavanaugh are of the convinced opinion that Europe should
have expressed more concern regarding Trump's Venezuela adventure, even
if sympathy lies with freeing Venezuela from a corrupt dictator. In that
failure to express concern enough to condemn the military aggression in
a sovereign country, it now sets the stage for future U.S. Action:
"They've accepted a precedent now that opens the door for Trump to do
the same thing toward them or Greenland and to coerce them even more...I
think it's a mistake", noted Kavanaugh.
The
fixation of controlling part of the Arctic through Greenland focuses
a secondary risk for Canada. A challenge of Canada's Northwest Passage
and Ellesmere Island, interconnecting the Canadian Arctic archipelago
will
see other challenges as climate change melts glaciers and the sea ice,
creating shipping channels from the Atlantic to the Pacific. Russian
interests in expanding its Arctic territory, China's declaration of its
interests as a "near-Arctic" player all interplay with America's eyes on
the Canadian Arctic.
"The president's been very clear. He wants Greenland to be part of the United States."
"There are a lot of things [Trump] can do to bring Greenland closer to the U.S."
"Venezuela
is a unique situation. I think what is likely to happen, what I hope
will happen, is that the United States pays more attention to
destabilizing regimes in the hemisphere like Cuba. Like Nicaragua."
"I
think it's a great thing for Canada to have America focused on the
Arctic. [Canada's ramped up defence spending] could do more in the high
North to free the U.S. up to handle other things."
"I
think that would be a tremendous boon for both countries...as kind of
the NATO anchor in the high North, Canada should want a Western
Hemisphere-focused United States."
Alexander Gray, former chief of staff, U.S. National Security Council