Saturday, July 13, 2019

The Stage is Set

"[Sanctions are meant] to stop Europe from buying Syria’s oil, they are not about another country selling oil to Syria."
"This is a very childish and ridiculous excuse by the British. They should officially announce that we are servants of America and act on behalf of America."
"America has returned their favor well by insulting their ambassador and their prime minister."
Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif 

"[The timetable for relieving the HMS Montrose, a frigate operating in the Persian Gulf, with the larger HMS Duncan destroyer in the wake of the recent developments has been moved forward]."
"This will ensure that the UK alongside international partners can continue to support freedom of navigation for vessels transiting through this vital shipping lane."
British Ministry of Defense 
A file photo of the HMS Duncan, a Type 45 Destroyer, which will relieve HMS Montrose in the Persian Gulf as Iran threatens to disrupt shipping (Ben Sutton/UK Ministry of Defence via AP)
A file photo of the HMS Duncan, a Type 45 Destroyer, which will relieve HMS Montrose in the Persian Gulf as Iran threatens to disrupt shipping (Ben Sutton/UK Ministry of Defence via AP)

"[The British naval escort, HMS Montrose] was forced to position herself between the Iranian vessels [and the ship]."
"[The navy ship issued] verbal warnings to the Iranian vessels, which then turned away."
"We are concerned by this action and continue to urge the Iranian authorities to de-escalate the situation in the region."
British government statement

"There was an attempt -- it appears to be that there was an attempt -- by some small naval vessels to take over a commercial vessel."
"The British had a military escort, and that took care of the situation ... Having said that, the freedom of navigation is a fundamental principle and a norm for the international order that has been in place now for seven decades, and we play a crucial role to enforce that norm."
U.S. Army General Mark Milley

"The enemy is going to regret this act."
"They would not have done it if they had done the minimum calculation."
Rear Admiral Ali Fadavi, deputy Revolutionary Guard commander
So the Islamic Republic of Iran is outraged; they did no such thing as dispatch their naval forces to challenge the tanker British Heritage approaching the northern entrance to the Strait of Hormuz, an Isle of Man-flagged tanker operated by the oil and gas company BP (British Petroleum), based in London. There had been no confrontation whatsoever with foreign vessels in the past 24 hours, according to Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps.

Strangely enough, an American aircraft flying overhead had captured footage of the Iranian ships interacting with the British vessels, the oil tanker and its naval escort, HMS Montrose. Iran had, with its usual bombast, threatened retaliation from the apprehension of its supertanker in the Mediterranean Sea with its oil cargo headed in a circuitous route toward the Syrian coast.
The Grace 1 super tanker in the British territory of Gibraltar, July 4, 2019. (AP Photo/Marcos Moreno)
Gibraltar authorities took steps to halt the vessel clearly bringing oil to the Syrian refinery at Banias, in violation of European Union sanctions. Its misfortune was that it approached the British territory of Gibraltar, where in Iran's words "an act of piracy" took place. Britain was attempting to "increase tensions" with its claims that the British Heritage faced a restraint to passing through the strait. Its claims utterly "worthless", according to Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif.

Qassem Suleimani.
Qassem Suleimani (centre) says Trump may start a war but Iran ‘will end it’. Photograph: HO/AFP/Getty Images

"Economic terrorism" against Iran was clearly at play in the seizure of the Iranian vessel; instigated by a U.S.-led campaign. And so, little wonder that the British Heritage steaming through the Gulf of Oman encountered a 'misunderstanding'. A reminder that despite authorization allowing "specified ships" suspected of violating EU sanctions to be detained, this is a game that the targets can also plan to their own advantage.

Gibraltar authorities arrested the captain and chief officer of Grace 1 on suspicion of breaching the sanctions, according to a spokesperson from the Royal Gibraltar police, with documents and electronic devices seized as well. A "political demonstration", according to Richard Dalton, a former British ambassador to Iran, of the Republic overplaying its sanctions-weakened hand.

All of these actions feed into apprehension of a trigger leading to a wider conflict as a result of too many mysterious provocations ranging from oil tanker attacks near the Strait of Hormuz that Iran is blamed for, along with Iranian-backed Houthi rebels in Yemen launching attacks on Saudi Arabia, capped off by the downing of a U.S. military drone in international airspace that Iran claimed to have been justifiably shot down within Iran's air space.

Thousands of troops, an aircraft carrier, nuclear-capable B-52 bombers and advanced fighter jets have been sent by the United States to the Middle East. A warning exercise, or a warm-up exercise?  Time has a habit of eventually revealing what has been suspected is what finally eventuates.

Secretary of State Mike Pompeo says goodbye to Saudi Foreign Minister Adel al-Jubeir in Jeddah, Saudi Arabia, on June 24, 2019, after meeting with Saudi leaders as part of an effort to build a “global coalition” against Iran. (Jacquelyn Martin/Pool/AFP/Getty Images)

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posted by Pieface @ Saturday, July 13, 2019

Thursday, June 27, 2019

The Drums of War

"This drone was in international waters, clearly. We have it all documented. It's documented scientifically, not just words."
"[Someone] loose and stupid [in Iran shot down the drone'; this country will not stand for it, that I can tell you."
"[It made] a big, big difference [that a U.S. pilot was not threatened. The use of force is] always on the table until we get this solved."
"I don't want to kill 150 Iranians ... I don't want to kill 150 of anything or anybody unless it's absolutely necessary [by launching a retaliatory strike]."
"We very much appreciate [that Iran's Revolutionary Guard decided not to shoot down a U.S. spy plane carrying over 30 people]."
U.S. President Donald Trump
The MQ-4C Triton unmanned aircraft system completes its inaugural cross-country ferry flight at Naval Air Station Patuxent River, Maryland.
"[The drone] was shot down by an Iranian surface-to-air missile system while operating in international airspace over the Strait of Hormuz."
"This was an unprovoked attack on a U.S. surveillance asset at international airspace."
U.S. Central Command

"At 00:14 U.S. drone took off from UAE in stealth mode and violated Iranian airspace."
"We've retrieved sections of the U.S. military drone in OUR territorial waters where it was shot down."
Iranian Foreign Affairs Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif
American national security officials and White House congressional leaders debated an urgent military response last Thursday over a retaliatory strike related to the shooting down of a U.S. surveillance asset when Iran launched a missile from the Iranian coastline along the Gulf of Oman. A robust military response was favoured by Secretary of State Mike Pompeo and National Security adviser John Bolton; not so much, it appears by high-echelon military officials concerned over a spiralling escalation, trapping U.S. forces in the region.

That the drone strike took place a short while after previous Iranian disturbances which they deny but which left two damaged oil tankers that were traveling through the Strait of Hormuz, the oil world's vital waterway -- following hard on the heels of an earlier incident, and the declaration by the Islamic Republic that it planned to breach the key limits on its uranium enrichment of the 2015 pact which the U.S. withdrew from a year ago, spelled a constellation of disagreeable prospects. None of which ignored the necessity to keep Iran from possessing nuclear weapons.

A Khordad-3 air defense system.
A Khordad-3 air defense system.
The IRGC said it used a "3rd of Khordad" surface-to-air missile system, images of which have been circulating now on social media as a symbol of Iranian prowess

Iran released its own GPS coordinates, placing the drone 8 miles off its coast and within the 12 nautical miles from shore claimed as Iranian territorial waters. The high altitude RQ-4 Global Hawk made by Northrop Grumman was no toy, about the size of a 737, costing a cool $100 million, and developed to evade the surface-to-air missile that brought it down, serving as a wake-up call to U.S. Defense officials.

The event gave Iran cause to accuse the United States of committing "a very dangerous and provocative act", in a dry reversal of what the U.S. most certainly could have described Iran's actions. According to a Pentagon official the drone was no closer to the coast of Iran than 21 miles, placing it firmly in international airspace. Iran's ambassador to the United Nations, helpfully explained that Tehran "does not seek war", but "is determined to vigorously defend its land, sea and air", and so it did...

This image released by the U.S. military's Central Command shows what it describes as the flight path and the site where Iran shot down a US drone in the Strait of Hormuz on Thursday, June 20, 2019.

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posted by Pieface @ Thursday, June 27, 2019

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