"What they're doing is setting the theatre to provide an expanded set of offensive options should the president direct military strikes."

"[This time the administration does not appear to have such a] discrete objective [as was witnessed before strikes against the nuclear program in Iran last year]." 

Dana Stroul, former deputy assistant secretary of defence for the Middle East 

 

"[While Iran has the right to] operate professionally in international airspace and waters ... any unsafe and unprofessional behaviour near U.S. forces, regional partners or commercial vessels increases risks of collision, escalation, and destabilization."

U.S. Central Command

 

"[If the U.S. brings in more F-35s, that would suggest that it plans on] operating inside Iranian airspace in a more considerable way."

"[These movements -- of the U.S. fleet in the Red Sea and eastern Mediterranean -- indicate that] both the U.S. and Israel are very concerned about an Iranian retaliation against Israel, even if Israel is not directly involved."

Gregory Brew, senior Iran analyst, Eurasia Group

    The Arleigh Burke-class guided-missile destroyer USS Roosevelt (DDG 80) transits the Arabian Gulf while operating in the U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM) area of responsibility.

U.S. Navy photo by Mass Communication Specialist 1st Class Indra Beaufort

 

Dozens of aircraft have been deployed by the U.S. military to bases near Iran, while some dozen warships have been assembled in or near the Middle East in the past month, according to satellite imagery, tracking data and U.S. defence officials. The stage certainly appears to be set for a potential U.S. strike against the Islamic Republic of Iran within a few weeks, as tensions continue to rise. Prior to strikes last year against the Iranian nuclear program, there was an even greater buildup of military might than on this occasion, lending an air of real uncertainty as to the outcome of what is currently a standoff between the abrasively defiant regime and the challenge of the powerful United States.

 

Not all experts on the Middle East and Iran are convinced that this show of force will culminate in an actual invasion to remove the Ayatollah-led, IRGC-fortified regime. The death toll from Iran's violent crackdown on protests is still rising, with activists and human rights groups claiming over 6,000 Iranians have been killed through the government crackdown, though some insist the death toll reaches even higher -- in the tens of thousands.  

 

President Trump speaks of his 'armada' whose purpose he hints, is to place pressure on Tehran over its nuclear program. Iran, he stated, is "talking to us, and we'll see if we can do something, otherwise, we'll see what happens".  For his part, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi has stated "Just as (Iran) is ready for negotiations, it is also ready for war."  While "Structural arrangements for #negotiations are progressing", senior Iranian security official Ali Larijani stated on social media. 

 

The USS Roosevelt (DDG-80) is armed with powerful Aegis systems, featuring Mk 41 Vertical Launching Systems (VLS) for Standard missiles, Tomahawks, and ASROC; a 5-inch Mk 45 gun; Phalanx CIWS/SeaRAM; 25mm machine guns; and Mk 32 torpedo tubes for lightweight torpedoes

U.S. Navy photo by Mass Communication Specialist 1st Class Indra Beaufort

 

Accompanied by three guided missile destroyers, the aircraft carrier USS Abraham Lincoln entered Central Command's area of responsibility and is now in the north Arabian Sea. Air defences and dozens of missiles are carried by each destroyer, including Tomahawks, a type of munition U.S. forces used back in June when they struck Iranian nuclear targets. While historically the U.S. has maintained an aircraft carrier in the Middle East there had been none in the region, when the Lincoln was redirected from the South China Sea.

 

According to defence officials, at least eight other warships are now positioned in the area, including at least two guided-missile destroyers, the USS McFaul and USS Mitscher, near the Strait of Hormuz. In this same area in recent days, Iran deployed drones. Analysts identified an Iranian drone carrier from satellite imagery, the Shahid Bagheri. Over three dozen U.S. aircraft, among them fighter jets, drones and planes used for refuelling reconnaissance  and transport have been forwarded to U.S. bases.

 

F-15 aircraft from the squadron that fought the 12-day war between Israel and Iran in June have been deployed now, along with nine A-10C Thunderbolt IIs, used to protect groups on the ground from enemy forces, stationed at Muwaffaq Salti Air Base in Jordan. America's ME allies like Jordan, the UAE and Saudi Arabia and Qatar have alerted Washington that they will not allow the U.S. to use the bases on their soil to attack Iran. Which is where the USS Lincoln steps into the picture since assaults can be launched directly from its position at sea.

 

EA-19G Growlers, electronic warfare aircraft that jam radars and disrupt communications which are on board the USS Lincoln, would be useful should the U.S. intend to enter Iranian airspace to hit targets in the interior. The USS Delbert D. Black visited Israel and left port from there on Sunday, moving further into the Red Sea. Additionally, two more destroyers are in the eastern Mediterranean, the USS Bulkeley and the USS Roosevelt, according to American defence officials. 

 

USS Abraham Lincoln, The War Zone

  

Positions: Antagonistic ... Solution: Uncertain

"Russia should be in no doubt that further military aggression against Ukraine would have massive consequences and severe cost in response."

"We reaffirm our unwavering commitment to Ukraine's sovereignty and territorial integrity, as well as the right of any sovereign state to determine its own future."

Group of Seven statement

British Prime Minister Boris Johnson and U.S. President Joe Biden during the G7 Summit in Cornwall, United Kingdom in June. The G7 alliance has unanimously warned of consequences if Russia were to attack Ukraine. File Photo by Andrew Parsons/No 10 Downing Street/UPI

A concerted Western response to what American intelligence points out that the Kremlin plans an invasion of Ukraine in the new year, as they steadily mass up to 175,000 Russian troops and military equipment at the border next to Ukraine. It may be difficult to recall that this group was once the G8, when Russia was part of it, before its decision to appropriate for itself the Crimean peninsula with the claim that it always was part of Russia and would remain so, not with Ukraine, despite that Vladimir Putin also claims that Ukraine has always been part of the beating heart of Russia and will remain so.

 

Moscow responded that NATO's expansion into Russia's eastern European sphere of influence contravenes the West assurances to Russia following the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991. Prior to the release of the joint G7 document, the Russian Embassy in London remonstrated that Britain's frequent phrasing of "Russian aggression" during the Liverpool meeting was misleading, designed only to create a 'cause' for the G7 to rally 'round.

"Russia has made numerous offers to NATO on ways to decrease tensions."

"The G7 forum could be an opportunity to discuss them but so far we hear nothing but aggressive slogans."

Russian Embassy statement, London

Russia is concerned with its "red line" which must not be permitted to be crossed. President Putin demanded legally binding security guarantees that further east expansion of NATO, or that it place weapons close to Russian territory be abandoned altogether, with Washington repeatedly responding that no country has the power to veto hopes nurtured by Ukraine to become part of NATO.

President Putin, according to the Kremlin, informed U.S. President Biden that Russian troops are a threat to no other country; Moscow was being demonized for simply moving troops within its own territory. Ingenuous to the Nth degree. Dmitry Peskov, spokesman for the Kremlin, spoke of very serious conceptual variances between Russia and the United States on Moscow's "red lines". A stated understatement. 

 

Russian President Vladimir Putin has asserted that Russia does not pose a threat to Ukraine. EPA-EFE/Maxim Shipenkov

The West was trying to turn Ukraine into a "bridgehead against Russia", wrote Mr. Putin in a July article. "It would be no exaggeration to say that the course of forced assimilation, the formation of an ethnically pure Ukrainian state aggressively oriented against Russia, is comparable in its consequences to the use of a weapon of mass destruction against us", he wrote.

 

In fact, the meeting was consumed more with a focus toward China and President Xi Jinping's aggressive strategies. It is Beijing's long-term goals that directly impact on the world order as China elbows its way toward recognition as a world power second to none, including the world's sole recognized world power which is unprepared to surrender its unipolar status any time soon. There were "very, very intense discussions especially on China", one official noted.

It is the standoff between Russia, NATO, the United States and now the G7 that is front and centre for now; China in the rear-view mirror. The emphasis for the moment is Russia's plans for Ukraine, which Western powers view through the lens of oppressive military threats meant to intimidate and to bring the country back under Moscow's tender orbit. Despite Ukraine having ousted the Kremlin's previous choice of Russian-linked president of the country in 2014.

"We call on Russia to de-escalate, pursue diplomatic channels and abide by its international commitments on transparency of military activities."

"We reconfirm our support for the efforts of France and Germany in the Normandy Format to achieve full implementation of the Minsk Agreements in order to resolve the conflict in eastern Ukraine."

Group of 7 statement

Ukrainian President Volodysmyr Zelensky (L) welcomes U.S. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin (R) during their meeting in Kyiv, Ukraine in October. EPA-EFE/Presidential Press Service