The Seriousness of the START Situation

"[Vladimir Putin's decision on tactical weapons] followed the failure by Kyiv's allies to heed previous serious signals [from Moscow because of the] fundamental irresponsibility of Western elites before their people and international security."

"Now they will have to deal with changing realities."

"We hope that NATO officials will adequately assess the seriousness of the situation."

Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov, Moscow

The Russian Foreign Ministry initially said Moscow would keep notifying the U.S. about planned test launches of its ballistic missiles, but Ryabkov's statement reflected an abrupt change of course.  CBC

 

Russian President Vladimir Putin has decided that Moscow is no longer obligated via treaty to honour the United States' decision-making by trustfully alerting it through advance notice regarding Russian missile tests. This, at a time when the Russian military under Kremlin orders deployed mobile missile launchers in Siberia as a demonstration of Russia's massive nuclear capabilities a highlighted link to the invasion of Ukraine and the fortunes of a conflict that has left both countries in a veritable stalemate condition.

Russian news agencies carried Deputy Foreign Minister Ryabkov's remarks that all information exchanges under the START agreement with Washington have been halted by Moscow, completing the distancing of the two countries in their nuclear responsibility pacts following on the suspension of Russia's ongoing participation in the last remaining nuclear arms pact with the United States.

Data relating to the current state of both countries' nuclear forces -- up to the present routinely released at six month intervals complying with the treaty -- both parties also exchanged advance warnings of test launches. Notices of this type represent an essential element of strategic stability and have for decades. This cooperation allowed Russia and the United States to properly interpret each other's moves, making certain that neither would mistake a test launch for a missile attack.

Termination of missile test warnings represents another effort on Moscow's part to discourage the West from continuing to strengthen its support for Ukraine. Emphasizing Russia's massive nuclear arsenal is a most transparent threat, one occasioned by the fury of stalemate and the isolation imposed by the U.S. and NATO upon the Russian Federation.  Augmented by President Putin's announcement of tacticl nuclear weapons deployed to Belarus territory, as a regional trusted ally.

 

This photo made from video provided by the Russian Defense Ministry Press Service on Wednesday, March 29, 2023, shows a Yars missile launcher of the Russian armed forces being driven from a shelter in an undisclosed location in Russia. The Russian military on Wednesday launched drills of its strategic missile forces, deploying Yars mobile launchers in Siberia in a show of the country's massive nuclear capability amid the fighting in Ukraine. (Russian Defense Ministry Press Service via AP)

 

The New START treaty was suspended last month, with Mr. Putin stating that U.S. inspections of Russia's nuclear sites was unacceptable at a time when Washington and its NATO allies have committed to Moscow's defeat in Ukraine. While not withdrawing entirely from the pact, Moscow stated its intention to continue to respect caps on nuclear weapons set by the treaty.

 

 

To the present, until Ryabkov's statement, it was understood by the United States that Moscow intended to continue notifying the U.S. of planned test launches of ballistic missiles, now upset by an abrupt change in orders. 

 

Russian drills will see Yars mobile missile launchers manoeuvre across three regions of Siberia involving measures to conceal the deployment from foreign satellites and other intelligence assets. No mention from the Russian Defence Ministry was given of how long the drills would last, nor were any practice launches mentioned of the nuclear-tipped intercontinental ballistic Yars missile with its range of about 11,000 kilometers. The Yars missile represents the backbone of Russia's strategic missile forces.

The tactical nuclear weapons deployed in Belarus are useful on the battlefield with their relatively short range and considerably lower yield, in comparison with the long-range strategic missiles fitted with nuclear warheads capable of obliterating entire cities. This latest decision by President Putin follows repeated warning that Moscow is prepared to use "all available means" -- referring to its nuclear arsenal -- to fend off attacks on Russian territory.

A still image from video, released by the Russian Defence Ministry in October 2022, shows what is said to be a Yars intercontinental ballistic missile launched during an exercise at the Plesetsk Cosmodrome in Russia. (Russian Defence Ministry/Reuters)

Russia's Near-Abroad

"What we see in Ukraine, and the way Russia is waging war -- means that this strategy [NATO's batlegroup 'tripwires' meant to forestall Russia's territorial ambitions] needs to be adjusted."

"We do have to reassess the risk posture and how much we need to stand together against potential Russian incursions and aggression."

"Where the Russian military goes, not only is civilian infrastructure destroyed, but civilians are shot, maimed, murdered, raped, tortured, deported, killed."

"That means we need to have a more robust position in the Baltics to prevent an attack from occurring in the first place."

Latvian Prime Minister Arturs Krisjanis Karins

"Finland must apply for NATO membership without delay."

"We hope that the national steps still needed to make this decision will be taken rapidly within the next few days."

Finnish President Sauli Niinisto/Prime Minister Sanna Marin

"Definitely [Finland's accession to NATO poses a direct threat to Russia]."

"Definitely NATO expansion does not make our continent more stable and secure."

This cannot fail to arouse our regret, and is a reason for corresponding symmetrical responses on our side."

Dmitry Peskov, Kremlin spokesman 

A first responder works at the site of a missile strike, amid Russia's invasion of Ukraine, in Odesa, Ukraine in this handout

 

That 'symmetrical responses' phrase was attention-grabbing. Analysts might point out that past situations spoke to potential counter-measures the Kremlin could consider in the event that its neighbours decided to move closer to the West and to join NATO, a prospect that makes the Russian Federation very nervous indeed. And one that reputedly spurred Vladimir Putin to scorn Ukraine as a puppet of the West controlled by fascists which obligated Russia to invade and bring war to Ukraine, a stunning course of punishment.

Responses on a wider basis -- setting aside the prospect of a Russian invasion of all its neighbours simultaneously rather than the feared and anticipated sequentially at a time when the Russian military finds itself bogged down in one country -- could conceivably consist alternately of Russia placing nuclear-armed missiles on the Baltic Seacoast. When asked whether Finland might, by joining NATO, provoke Russia, its President said: "My response would be that you caused this. Look at the mirror".

The expectation of other NATO allies is that Finland, along with Sweden which has also stated its intention to apply for NATO membership, would be quickly granted membership. That would result in an increased troop presence to defend the Nordic region during the period of ratification that would take approximately a year. The irony is that Ukraine which has long sought NATO membership and has been put off for fear of aggravating Russia, was targeted with a "special military operation" to prevent just such NATO expansion.

 

A Ukrainian serviceman patrols an area, as Russia's attack on Ukraine continues, in an undisclosed location in Kharkiv Region   Reuters

 

As the two largest EU countries to  join NATO to the present, Finland's 1,300-km border with Russia would double the frontier between NATO and Russia. NATO guards would be placed with this new alliance, a mere few hours' drive from the northern outskirts of St.Petersburg. As the world's sole superpower European nations feeling the stress and strain of a silent, looming threat from Russia, seek the protection of the world's largest and best-armed military, that of the United States.

Even while Moscow regards these events as a direct threat to its own influence and security in the region, it was that pre-emptive move to demonstrate that it would not tolerate NATO's creeping presence in the Russian near-abroad that motivated the Ukrainian invasion; the extended reach of which has been to shock, unnerve and convince Russia's neighbours that they're in dire need of the backing of an international coalition to give Russia pause over extending its 'special military operations' elsewhere.

And all will have taken note that Ukraine, though not a NATO member-nation, has been amply supported  with the supply of advanced technological weaponry which, together with the Ukraine military's fighting spirit in countering the Russian presence with a strong defense, has now transformed that hugely successful defense into an admirable counter-offensive, pushing Russian troops back towrd their own border, and even threatening Russian towns with the same treatment Russia meted out to Ukrainian towns.

Ukrainian service members fire with a self-propelled howitzer 2S1 Gvozdika, as Russia's attack on Ukraine continues, in unknown location in Kharkiv region, Ukraine May 7, 2022. REUTERS/Serhii Nuzhnenko

Eastern Europe in High Stress

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, left, and NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg are seen at a news conference at the European Union headquarters in Brussels on Thursday. (John Thys/AFP/Getty Images)

"The message today to Russia is that it is for Ukraine as a sovereign nation to decide its own path."

"We call on Russia to return to diplomacy. To de-escalate. And to respect Ukraine's sovereignty and territorial integrity."

"Any further aggression against Ukraine will have severe consequences. And would carry a high price."
Jens Stoltenberg, NATO Secretary-General

"We will emphasize here once again, that the inviolability of borders is one of the very important foundations of peace in Europe, and that we will do everything together to ensure that this inviolability actually remains."

German Chancellor Olaf Scholz

"I'm worried because the military concentration, especially on the Ukrainian border with Russia [is] very strong."

"We are prepared to avoid the kind of surprises we met during the occupation of Crimea."

Slovenian Prime Minister Janez Jansa, EU revolving presidency

"Probably we face the most dangerous situation in the last 30 years. I think we have to do everything that is in our hands to prevent the worst scenario, which we [cannot] exclude."

"This scenario is possible military intervention into the territory of Ukraine."

Lithuanian President Gitanas Nauseda

 

"There will be no talks on European security without European allies and partners."

"[Washington will hold discussions with its allies but] we will not compromise the key principles on which European security is built, including that all countries have the right to decide their own future and foreign policy, free from outside interference."

Jen Psaki, White House spokesperson

Russian President Vladimir Putin speaks at a conference in Moscow on Friday. (Sergei Guneyev/SPUTNIK/AFP/Getty Images)

Over 100,000 Russian  troops have been massed on the Russian border with Ukraine, leaving leaders of Europe to warn of the most dangerously tense episode occurring in real time, in the past 30 years since the dissolution of the Soviet Union when its satellites went their separate ways, assuming full sovereignty for themselves after years of orbiting helplessly around the powerfully-enforced magnetic star of the USSR. 

 

With the last European Council summit of the year in Belgium, EU heads of state and government gave ample warning to the Kremlin that it would face "massive consequences and severe cost" should there be a repeat of the annexation of Crimea in a violent 2014 takeover. But Vladimir Putin remains resolute; should Europe wish to achieve a relaxation of tensions, NATO must withdraw its 2008 assurance to Ukraine that it would be welcomed along with Georgia into its bloc. No agreement, no de-escalation.

 

Moscow's published list of demands for de-escalation and recall of Russian troops and war machinery has failed to impress NATO  and the EU. Russia's insistence of a legally binding guarantee that NATO surrender all military activity in eastern Europe and Ukraine is part of its list of security guarantees to be negotiated with the West if any progress is to be made in de-engaging from its current level of intimidation and threat.

 

The detailed demands, Moscow stressed, are essential, without which tensions will not be diminished in Europe, and the crisis over Ukraine defused. However, the world could be assured, Moscow reiterated, that it has no intention whatever of planning an invasion of Ukraine. Demands include an effective Russian veto on future NATO membership for Ukraine. Other elements relate to the removal of U.S. nuclear weapons from Europe alongside the withdrawal of multi national NATO battalions from Poland, Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania. 

None of those demands were met with ingratiating deference. Russia does not, after all, control with the
EU or NATO and its allies, led by the United States, envision for Europe; total abandonment of the Baltic states and the rest of eastern Europe to the kind remonstrances of the Kremlin to convince former satellites that their futures lie with a resumption of their former devotion to a mighty Russia's formation of a strong Europe.

According to Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov, Russia and the West must begin with a clean slate to rebuild relations gone sour. Russia being fully prepared to begin talks as soon as possible. As far as the Kremlin is concerned, its position is one of response to threats to its security from Ukraine's increasingly warm relations with NATO and its aspirations to join the alliance. 

The best possible scenario the Kremlin envisages if that NATO  return to the situation that existed before May 1997; predating the accession to NATO of any of the former communist states in east Europe; that NATO relinquish any military activities in Ukraine, eastern Europe, the Caucasus and Central Asia. Wait for it.

Ukraine’s foreign minister has asked Canada to help strengthen its defences amid escalating tensions with Russia, while NATO warns Russia will face “high impact” sanctions if it attacks

A Fawning Putin and a Stern Biden...?

"I want to say that the image of President Biden that our press and even the American press paints has nothing in common with reality,"

"He was on a long trip, had flown across the Ocean, and had to contend with jet lag and the time difference. When I fly it takes its toll. But he looked cheerful, we spoke face-to-face for two or maybe more hours. He's completely across his brief."

"Biden is a professional, and you have to be very careful in working with him to make sure you don’t miss anything. He doesn’t miss anything, I can assure you." 

Russian President Vladimir Putin

"We didn't need to spend more time talking. [I informed Mr. Putin that] we need some basic rules of the road that we can all abide by. I did what I came to do."

"[There was] no substitute for face-to-face dialogue, [I told him the agenda was] not against Russia [but] for the American people."

"This is not about trust, this is about self-interest and verification of self-interest [with a] genuine prospect [of improving relations]."

U.S. President Joe Biden

U.S. President Joe Biden (left) and Russia's President Vladimir Putin meet at the start of the U.S.-Russia summit at Villa La Grange in Geneva, Switzerland, on Wednesday, June 16, 2021. (Denis Balibouse)

They're not strangers to one another, although relations between them have been strained; the cool distance between Washington and Moscow has been awhile brewing. President Biden's predecessor had a relaxed, somewhat warmish relationship with President Putin. The Democratic White House is aggrieved over what it believes was Russian interference in the election that brought Donald Trump to four years in the White House. Nonsense, Moscow responds.

The summit between them on June 16 was productive, in a cool, businesslike way, according to each of the participants. Despite that no feel-good, accomplishment-proud joint news conference took place after their frank discussions laying (almost) everything on the table. There were some 'don't go there' issues that each made clear were not up for discussion, and they weren't. Both accomplished politicians, actors, diplomats, smile on cue.

Vital issues like arms control and cybersecurity talks proceeded. The discussions were to have consumed between four to five hours. And to make certain that it was well understood that this was strictly business, no food to be served; water sufficed on this occasion. The exercise in 'airing it all' (almost) took much less time than anticipated; between two to three hours, so no hardship for either in threats of famishing penance.

Certainly the setting was conducive to feeling good, at the lakeside Villa La Grange in Geneva. In the end, 68-year-old Vladimir Putin, acquiesced to the 78 year-old American president, graciously putting the lie to early dementia capturing the older man's brain. To Mr. Biden's severity of purpose, Mr. Putin was less curt and dismissive in a notable role-reversal, expressing his confidence in his political adversary as a constructive, experienced discussion partner, speaking "the same language".

Reminiscent in part, of former U.S. President George W.Bush enthusing that looking into Vladimir Putin's eyes assured him that this was a man he "could do business with". But in the final analysis, was unable to. Relations between the two countries have been tense. The Kremlin came under fairly universal condemnation with its surprise annexation of Crimea and its military arming, training and fighting alongside ethnic Russian Ukrainians in eastern Ukraine's Donbas region. An issue that Mr. Putin is rather prickly about; off-limits.

 

President Putin, briefing reporters following their discussion, and in lieu of the more generally accepted joint news conference spoke of the two sides making progress on shared goals, that the meeting had set aside hostilities as indication of the two leaders' wish to make an effort to understand the framework of the position each spoke from. It was "hard to say" whether relations would improve beyond a "glimpse of hope" that mutual trust might result.

 

The remaining distance between them expressed by the lack of geniality in each inviting the other to visit their respective capitals. According to Mr. Biden, much time was spent on discussions around arms control and cyber-attacks, when it was made clear by him to Mr. Putin that "critical infrastructure should be off-limits". As emphasis, he handed over a list of 16 strategic sectors to Mr. Putin, who undoubtedly has a similar list back home in Moscow. 

The impression was left with Mr. Biden that there was genuine concern of being "encircled", the belief by Mr. Putin that Washington planned to "take him down". And of course, Mr. Biden assured Mr. Putin that such was not the case; they just had to accommodate themselves to the practicality of getting along and pursuing their mutual interests in ensuring the good of the global community was uppermost in mind, primarily in restraints in arms control.

He did warn Mr. Putin, he said, of consequences should jailed opposition figure Alexei Navalny expire in prison as a result of detention conditions; a situation that would prove to be "devastating for Russia". Both agreed without hesitation that Moscow and Washington shared nuclear stability responsibility; further discussions on altering the recently extended New START arms limitation treaty would be on the agenda.

Mr. Putin made it abundantly clear that concerns about Mr. Navalny's fate should rest solely with Russia and expanded Russia military presence close to the eastern border of Ukraine was also Russia's internal business. He laid to rest as far as he was concerned the very absurdity of Russian responsibility for a series of cyber-attacks in the United States. 

Although both Mr.Putin and Mr. Biden expressed the hope that more stable, predictable relations between the two countries might result prior to their meeting, it appeared somewhat obvious that the meeting itself did little to advance that prospect; cool, collected, remote relations. The irritants expressed on the U.S. side unresolved to its satisfaction, and guaranteed to remain so in the near future. "I'm not confident he'll change his behaviour", the last words on the matter by Mr. Biden.

President Joe Biden and Russian President Vladimir Putin, arrived to meet at the Villa la Grange on Wednesday, June 16, 2021, in Geneva, Switzerland. (Saul Loeb)

"I watched Putin's press conference after the summit meeting, but since Russians have heard most of his lies and evasions for years, there wasn't much new for me. The foreign audience seemed shocked when Putin said Navalny had only himself to blame for consciously breaking parole by leaving the country -- even though Navalny was evacuated to Germany in a poison-induced coma. He also tried to justify the Russian invasion of Crimea in 2014 (which he used to deny) by arguing that it had introduced "stability" after the independent nation struggled to free itself from Putin's grip. Putin also denied responsibility for cyberattacks and blamed the US for being the biggest offender."

"These are examples of the absurd, reality-twisting nonsense Russians are fed 24-7 by the state-controlled media, and Putin was delighted to have the chance to spread it around the world. Had Biden wanted to send a real message to Putin, he would have met instead with Volodymyr Zelensky, the president of Ukraine. Or with Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya, the leading opposition candidate in Belarus' sham elections last year, who is now living in exile after fleeing persecution by Putin's loyal servant Belarusian despot Alexander Lukashenko. Or Biden could have extended a White House invitation to the families of Putin's many victims."

Opinion by Garry Kasparov, CNN