Thursday, May 11, 2023

Russia, Respecting The Rule of Law/Arctic Council Chairmanship 2021-2023

His Excellency Lavrov Sergey Viktorovich

"A cross-cutting priority of the Russian Chairmanship in the Arctic Council will be "Responsible Governance for Sustainable Arctic" through promoting collective approaches to the sustainable development of the Arctic, environmentally, socially and economically balanced, enhancing synergy and cooperation and coordination with other regional structures, as well as implementation of the Council's Strategic Plan, while respecting the rule of law."
"The Russian Chairmanship will continue supporting the establishment of the Arctic Council as the leading format for international Arctic cooperation, improving its work, increasing the effectiveness of its Working and Expert groups, the Secretariat, as well as developing mechanisms for financing the Council's activities, including its projects and programs, implementing decisions and recommendations, as well as encouraging the dialogue and interaction with the Observers to provide their meaningful and balanced engagement in the Council’s activities. It intends to further intensify collaboration of the Arctic Council with the Arctic Economic Council, the Arctic Coast Guard Forum, the University of the Arctic. Among the priorities of the Russian Chairmanship – promoting international scientific cooperation, in particular, exploring the possibility to conduct an Arctic Council scientific expedition to the Arctic Ocean."
His Excellency Lavrov Sergey Viktorovich   Minister of Foreign Affairs of the Russian Federation
Sea ice in the Arctic
Sea ice in the Arctic  Roscongress
"The hopes for cooperation with Russia in the Arctic continue to cool. Days after a U.S. diplomat stated that cooperation with Russia in the Arctic was now virtually impossible, the Kremlin published amendments to its Arctic policy. President Putin signed the decree earlier this week on 21 February 2023. "
"The updated document places greater emphasis on Russian national interests in the region and removes specific mentions for cooperation within the Arctic Council."
"While the original policy, published in March 2020, called for the “strengthening of good neighborly relations with the Arctic states” in the fields of economic, scientific, cultural and cross-border cooperation the amended version removes the above section and instead calls for the “development of relations with foreign states on a bilateral basis, […] taking into account the national interests of the Russian Federation in the Arctic”."
High North News
putin discussing russian arctic claims.
President Putin discusses expansion of Russia’s territorial claims with the permanent members of the Security Council. (Source: Kremlin)
 
The eight Arctic states that comprise the Arctic Council are Finland, Norway, Iceland, Sweden, Russia, Denmark, Canada and the United States. All these states in collaboration and agreement have produced binding agreements focused on preservation and environmental protection. The council represents a rare platform that gives a voice to the region's Indigenous peoples. Security interests are not part of the Council's agenda,
 
The Arctic Council for close on three decades has been an example of successful post-Cold War cooperation. Its members have seen common purpose in cooperating on climate-change research and social development in recognition that this is an ecologically sensitive region of the world and currently undergoing vast environmental transformation linked to Climate Change. 
 
All that has changed. Following the Russian invasion of Ukraine other council members were estranged from Russia as a rebuke of its imposition of war on its neighbour, and stopped working with their Russian counterpart. Norway now prepares to assume the Council chairmanship from Moscow, on May 11. Leaving experts to ask whether the viability of the polar body itself is at risk reflecting its inability to cooperate with the very country that controls over half of the Arctic coastline.
 
There could be dire future implications for the region's environment and its four million inhabitants who face the effects of melting sea ice and the interest of non-Arctic countries in the region's untapped mineral resources in the face of an ineffective Arctic Council. With the end of cooperation with Moscow a third of the council's 130 projects cannot move forward, new projects cannot proceed, existing projects cannot be renewed.
 
Arctic Council meets in Finland
Arctic Council Meeting

No longer do Western and Russian scientists share climate-change findings. Cooperation for possible search-and-rescue missions or oil spills has come to an end. "I am worried that this will really hobble the ability of the Arctic Council to work through these various issues", stated US. Senator Angus King. Polar waters are opening to shipping as sea ice vanishes. The Arctic is known to be warming four times faster than the rest of the world.
 
Industries are eager to exploit the region's endowment of natural resources that include oil, gas and metals like gold, iron and rare earths. An effective response to changes and the vital issues that loom are less likely given discord between Russia and the other members of the Arctic Council. "Norway has a big challenge. That's how to rescue as much as possible of the Arctic Council's good work in the absence of Russia", pointed out John Holdren, co-director of the Harvard Kennedy School's Arctic initiative.
 
For its part, Russia points out that the work cannot continue without its cooperation. Nikolay Korchunov, Russian Arctic Ambassador,  said he was not confident it "will be able to remain the main platform on Arctic issues, given that the council has become weak". There is the possibility that Russia may decide that issues affecting the region must be addressed with Russian interests only in mind. Or that it may establish a separate Russia-centric rival council.
 
Putin's state visit to China, China held a ceremony at the square outside the East Gate of the Great Hall of the People to welcome Putin. Accompanied by Xi Jinping, Putin watches the parade of the guard of honor of the three services of the Chinese People's Liberation Army
China warmly welcomes Putin’s state visit in 2018. After the conversation between Xi Jinping and Putin, China and Russia reached a consensus on deepening bilateral cooperation and signed a series of cooperation agreements. Photo: Presidential Press and Information Office

Russia has recently taken steps to expand cooperation in the Arctic with non-Arctic states; signing a memorandum for example with China, establishing cooperation between the two countries' coast guards in the Arctic. China's interests in the Arctic revolve around shipping and investing in ore extraction, particularly rare earth minerals. Russian Arctic Ambassador Korchunov pointed out Moscow's welcome of non-Arctic states in the region. With the proviso they not arrive with a military agenda.
 
And this is yet another area where Russia has distinguished itself, long before its invasion of Ukraine occurred. It has rebuilt or refurbished old Soviet military bases on its Arctic shorelines and islands that form part of Russian territory. It is Russia under Vladimir Putin that has militarized the Arctic, a condition it wants no other country to emulate.
 
Does the Arctic Council make sense without Russia?: Heather Exner-Pirot and Evan T. Bloom in the National Post


 

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Monday, December 02, 2019

The Arctic : New Military Outpost

"A great power play is shaping up between Russia, the United States and China, which is increasing the level of tension in the [Arctic] region."
"It is likely that a part of China's buildup of knowledge about the Arctic and capacity to operate in the Arctic will take place in a collaboration between civilian and military actors."
"This [Russia fortifying military capabilities] is an essential driving force for several other Arctic coastal states starting to strengthen their [own] regional military capabilities."
Danish Defence Intelligence Service risk assessment report

"[Chinese research expeditions in the Arctic are not just a matter of science but serve a] dual purpose."
"We have looked at Chinese research activities in the Arctic, and see that the Chinese military is showing an increasing interest in being part of that."
Danish Defence Intelligence Service Chief Lars Findsen
workers in front of the Xuelong 2 icebreaker
US secretary of state Mike Pompeo berated China for using its growing Arctic research program as a Trojan horse for its military and commercial goals.VCG/Getty Images

Russia and China appear to have reached a pact between them that neither will perhaps interfere with the plans of the other. China, halfway around the world, nowhere geographically close to the Arctic expressed its interest in having special observer status. While it is not an Arctic nation like Norway, Denmark, Russia, the United States and Canada, the allure of shipping through opening sea lanes as Arctic ice is beginning to recede, much less the Arctic's potential role as a military jumping-off spot, and the irresistibility of mining the vast stores of petrofuels and minerals on the ocean floor are all of great interest to this aspiring super power.

China has gone so far as to consider the Arctic as part of Beijing's far-reaching One Belt One Road initiative that would, in essence, bring the world itself closer to China. Having established a scientific base at Svalbard, Norway, it makes use of the front of scientific research as a way into the region, according to the Danish intelligence service report, warning of geopolitical rivalry in the Arctic intensifying over access to minerals. All the more so since U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo pointed out Russia's aggressive military presence in the region
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China expands research bases in Antarctica
Chinese icebreaker Xuelong, or Snow Dragon, arrives at the Zhongshan Station on Dec 2 on the country's 30th expedition to the Antarctica that began on Nov 7. [ZHANG JIANSONG / XINHUA]

China's infrastructure projects in any number of countries where it has made a presence throughout Africa, Asia and the Middle East, giving out generous loans and initiating badly needed infrastructure that will ultimately benefit China, while leaving those countries with monumental debts to be paid back ensuring they will remain as debtors in Beijing's orbit has allowed it to establish itself as a benefactor whom its beneficiaries remain economic captives to. Their initial pleasure at the building of bridges, roads, communications and greater trade prospects will eventually turn sour but in the interim it advances China's program.

Adding Arctic sea routes nicely rounds out Beijing's agenda for the foreseeable future. Denmark's priority on the other hand, is to ensure that the Arctic remains an area of international cooperation, that as issues surface political negotiations between those nations with Arctic territory can be depended upon. As Denmark's intelligence points out that goal, of regional cooperation in the greater interests of all concerned equally, is imperilled by the very reality of Russia's new military bases, and the emphasis by both Russia and China on building their expeditionary and military fleets of icebreakers and nuclear-powered battle ships which can only lead to confrontation.
The Russian race to the Arctic relies heavily on Chinese investment, and fast-track shipping via the Northern Sea Route is especially attractive to Beijing. Today, China is Moscow's biggest client for Northern Sea Route shipments: Russia sent liquified natural gas tankers to China via Arctic waters for the first time in July 2018, and lent Russian icebreakers to escort a convoy of Chinese cargo vessels to Europe that fall   CNN

The Danish conclusion that "This is an essential driving force for several other Arctic coastal states starting to strengthen their regional military capabilities", expresses the reality that is all too obvious but which it appears that other Arctic nations with the exception of the U.S. prefer not to notice, since to do so would be to acknowledge their own need to meet this not-too-distant challenge with infrastructure and a commitment to defending their Arctic sovereignty with defences of their own military upgrades.

Units of Russian Arctic Trefoil military base, 30 Mar 17
Russian Arctic Trefoil base: Special design features were used to cope with the severe weather   Getty Images

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