Agreeing to Disagee : With Prejudice

Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelensky said the US and NATO are creating panic in his country over a potential Russian invasion   Future Publishing via Getty Images

"I'm the president of Ukraine, I'm based here and I think I know the details deeper than any other president."

"Do we have tanks on the streets? They go around saying 'War starts tomorrow'."

"It creates panic. Panic in the financial sector. It costs Ukraine a lot."

Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelensky

 

"Compared to the document we received from NATO, the U.S. response could almost be called a paragon of diplomatic politesse."

"If it depends on Russia, there will be no war. We don't want wars. But we also won't allow our interests to be rudely trampled, to be ignored."

Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov

 

"[Russia has massed enough forces to launch a full-scale invasion -- of Ukraine -- with] little warning."

"[The Russian buildup is] larger in scale and scope than anything we've seen in recent memory."

U.S. General Mark Milley, chairman, U.S. joint chiefs of staff

President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia said in December that his demands must be addressed “right away, right now.”Credit...Pool photo by Aleksey Nikolskyi

Ukraine's president feels as though he and his country are being pushed around. Not only by his country's former nemesis and its current incarnation, but also by the very countries that have stepped into the breach of threatening standoff, and in their eagerness to promote their version of what may be expected to occur, and when, creating an indelible internal aura of stress and panic. Whereas President Zelensky would prefer projecting an air of confidence over a situation that would have grave consequences for the sovereign right of his country, putting up a brave facade while appealing to the West to exert pressure on Moscow, he hears stark predictions of impending disaster.

Predictions that seem to him premature, that all diplomatic overtures have not been fully employed to de-escalate; rather than exacerbate tensions, those who claim to be committed to Ukraine's salvation as a securely independent member of the international community of nations are being unnecessarily provocative and heating up their exchanges in volumes of threats and repercussions. 

The White House, he publicly complained was "amplifying" the risk Ukraine is facing, an alarmist attitude too extreme to reflect the current situation which, he emphases, represents a "mistake in my opinion", a surprising rebuke to the rash statements of approaching doom expressed by the White House. The comments emerged following a telephone call with President Biden, a call that a Ukrainian official described as one that "did not go well".

"On the one hand, [Zelensky] wants assistance. But on the other, he has to assure his people he has the situation under control. That's a tricky balance", observed a White House official. The sense of swiftly impending collision between NATO, the United States, Ukraine and Russia has been heightened by a new revelation that the military buildup of Russian troops and equipment on the border with Ukraine has expanded to the inclusion of blood supplies required for anticipated casualties in the event of an imminent conflict.

In communications with France's President Macron, Mr. Putin spoke of the West having "ignored" security concerns expressed by Russia over its perception of NATO expansion into Russia's near-abroad, a geography that Vladimir Putin regards as Russia's diplomatic-political domain into which a Western presence has become a destabilizing feature and a threat to Russia's relationships with its near neighbours. According to a French official, Mr. Putin indicated "very clearly that he did not want confrontation".

And nor would Beijing -- Moscow's great good friend and collegial partner in defending joint interests against Western interference -- appreciate violent confrontation. At least not right now. It would be most inconvenient, most unsuitable in view of their warm relations, for Russia to embark on an incendiary war situation that would surely spread and absorb the world's attention at the very time that China is hosting the Winter Olympics.

A White House official notes that Russia'a protestations of having no intention of invading its neighbour is welcome, but it would be far more convincing for it to withdraw its troops from Ukraine's border. Mr. Putin has been accused by the U.S. ambassador in Moscow of "putting a gun on the table and saying 'I come in peace'." 

Russia has been given assurances from the U.S. that such a withdrawal would entitle it in exchange to have a delegation of Russian inspectors visit missile sites entrenched by the U.S. in Poland and Romania to reduce its fears that the missiles are aimed at Russia, and not as claimed, in the direction of Iran. In the relentless standoff, the U.S. now considers an action independent of NATO to itself and the U.K. in a "coalition of the willing" to include other allies, moving troops closer to Russia to deter Putin's plans.

A Ukrainian service member kneels next to a howitzer during artillery and anti-aircraft drills near the border with Russian-annexed Crimea in the Kherson region of Ukraine.

via REUTERS

 

Image: Rodong Sinmun  | Kim Jong Un at a missile test

"Nuclear pariah North Korea is set to chair a United Nations forum on nuclear disarmament for four weeks from late May, the U.N. has announced, leading one Geneva-based advocacy group to encourage a diplomatic boycott of the event."

"The U.N. Conference on Disarmament will include discussions on nuclear weapons, preventing nuclear war and transparency in armament to support 'effective international arrangements to assure non-nuclear-weapon States against the use or threat of use of nuclear weapons', according to the U.N. website."

NK News

 

"It’s only a coordination role and largely a symbolic post – but still, it’s bad optics nevertheless,"

"North Korea is the worst example of not abiding by the nonproliferation regime. And that country assuming the lead of the relevant meeting demonstrates how ineffectual global governance can be."

Shin Beom-chul, director, Center for Diplomacy and Security, Korea Research Institute for National Strategy

 

"While the U.N. will likely defend North Korea’s appointment as simply an automatic rotation, no system should tolerate such a fundamental conflict of interests."

"It’s common sense that a disarmament body should not be headed by the world’s arch-villain on illegal weapons and nuclear proliferation, notorious for exporting missiles and nuclear know-how to fellow rogue regimes around the globe."

"'All of the delegations who took the floor', reported the UN’s summary, welcomed the North Korean’s presidency, and said that 'they looked forward to his [North Korea’s So Se Pyong] stewardship' and to working with him 'to revitalize and strengthen the Conference'. Those listed as having taken the floor were Canada, the UK, India, China, Nigeria, Portugal, Iran, Myanmar, Algeria, and UN official Jarmo Sareva."

Hillel Neuer, Executive Director, UN Watch

North Korean leader Kim Jong-un visits a munitions factory producing what state media KCNA called a ‘major weapon system’. Photograph: KCNA/Reuters

 North Korea's dear leader Kim Jong UN visited a munitions factory that produces a "major weapon system", according to state media on Friday. At the same time, North Korea conducted tests of an upgraded long-range cruise missile, along with a warhead of a tactical guided missile. In obvious preparation for taking on the prestigious position heading a United Nations Conference on Disarmament. So that the North Korean representative can speak with confidence on nuclear proliferation and other such global distractions.

In an absolute frenzy of activity Tuesday saw the test of an updated long-range cruise missile system. Oh, and yet another test held in confirmation of the power of a conventional warhead for a surface-to-surface tactical guided missile on Thursday. All diligently and dutifully and with an appropriate air of pride, recorded on the state media organ. No doubt confirming dispatches were sent out from North Korea to its interested friends and colleagues in the Islamic Republic of Iran.

 

Anadolu Agency

 

The munitions factory was lauded by President Kim in its grand progress achievement in "producing major weapons" and holding a "very important position and duty" in modernizing the country's armed forces. The result of which cannot be denied and sufficiently praised, in realizing its national defence development strategy.

A day earlier South Korea's Joint Chiefs of Staff announced their having detected the apparent launch of two short-range ballistic missiles. A revelation that saw the United States condemn the North for carrying out what is undeniably the sixth round of missile tests in this first month of the new year of 2022. Setting the tone for what lies ahead for North Korea's strategic weapons exploits.

The Joint chiefs of Staff of South Korea reported as well on the diligent actions of its rogue neighbour in drawing attention and concern from all of its near neighbours with the exception of its proud guardian China as a fledgling and most effective bulwark against the incursion of sordid Western notions of stability, security and peace through diplomatic negotiations, when it fired off another two cruise missiles into the sea off its east coast on Tuesday.

Composite photo, released by North Korea's official Korean Central News Agency, shows a long-range cruise missile being test-fired on Jan. 25, 2022

Russia: "Main Issue", "Secondary Issues"

"As far as this document goes, there is a reaction that allows us to hope for a start of a serious discussion but on secondary issues."

" There is no positive reaction to the main issue."

Russian Foreign Minister, Sergey Lavrov

"There is a scope for dialogue."

"[President Putin would analyze the response in full before any further move]. It would be foolish to expect an answer as early as next week."

Dmitry Peskov, spokesman, for Vladimir Putin

"It's always very sensitive when it's about children. It creates a lot of tension and stress for the parents, for the whole society."

"It ties up law enforcement services It's easier to make a mistake when the constant tension makes everyone tired."

"It is [meant to] destabilize and demoralize the population."

Alina Prolova, deputy head, Ukraine Center of Defense Strategies think tank, former deputy defence minister of Ukraine

A morning at a school in Kiev.  Oleksander Shcherbyn, Ukrainian police demining unit

 

At strategic loggerheads, both sides -- in the debate over whether or not the long build-up of Russian troops and military equipment on the border with  Ukraine is meant to intimidate in the short term, and prepare for an invasion in the longer term -- digging in their heels. While Moscow claims it is prepared for "serious conversations" to defuse the Ukraine crisis, the U.S. and NATO have proposed areas of co-operation on a wider scale.

To an objective observer, defusing Moscow's concern over American and NATO missile silos defensive sites in Europe which Russia views as having hostile intent toward it,  and has led Moscow to denounce U.S. and NATO intentions as militarily malicious, would rank high. Certainly more so than Vladimir Putin's ultimatum to NATO that it must withdraw its members' forces from eastern Europe, and it must never allow Ukraine entry to the military alliance.

But the disposition of Ukraine as a fully sovereign nation entitled by international law to decide its own fate and alliances looms with greater importance to Mr. Putin who views Ukraine as a geographic, cultural, social and political part of Greater Russia. Washington has proposed vital cooperation in areas that should be of great concern to both political adversaries; reviving arms control treaties, limiting military exercises; granting Moscow access to NATO sites in Europe for observational purposes.

 

The DFRLab uses social media monitoring and geolocation techniques to identify the presence of Russian forces deployed along Russia’s border with Ukraine. Those forces are now present in Belarus as well. (Source: Michael Sheldon/DFRLab/OpenStreetMap)

 

This is what Moscow refers to as "secondary issues". Its determination to possess command of Ukraine transcends the issues that are intended to make the world a safer place. So misdirected its priorities as to bemuse any rational mind. Instead, cyber attacks, threatening rhetoric, scheduling war games with nations bordering Ukraine that are firmly in Russia's political orbit continue to fray the sense of national security that sustains Ukraine.

And in Kyiv a Ukrainian bomb disposal expert is teaching students at a school in the capital all about explosives and what to be aware of. The training was organized by law enforcement following a series of hoax bomb alerts that forced the evacuation of schools in the city along with others, including the cities of Kharkiv, Lviv and Zaporizhzhia. These are threats targeting schoolchildren with fear-mongering that point directly to Russia in its hybrid war.

"The purpose of Russian special services is obvious -- to put additional pressure on Ukraine, sow anxiety and panic among the public", explained Ukraine's Security Service which had recorded over 300 bomb threats so far this year alone in comparison to 1,100 that took place during the entire 2021 year. Russian officials, on the other hand, blame Ukraine for similar bomb hoaxes, forcing Russian schools, shopping centres and kindergartens to evacuate tens of thousands.

It is difficult to credit mature societies, responsible governments resorting to such tactics meant to intimidate, strike fear, and demoralize another society. Striking at the very heart of any civilized society by targeting the most vulnerable in the population; its children. Ukraine's Center of Defense Strategies think-tank concentrates on what it speaks of as the main threat it faces; "a hybrid invasion" comprised of more cyber attacks, disinformation, and bomb threats aimed at schools, subway systems, administrative offices and other civil and official infrastructures.

Leaving Kyiv to hold emergency bomb drills for children. Where bomb experts explain that a small, unassuming-looking device is capable of holding a kilogram of explosives with enough power to kill anyone standing within five metres, wounding others up to 15 metres' distance. Classes shown video clips of explosions along with explosive devices meant to appear as though they're a box of chocolates or a mobile phone case.

Hundreds of Ukrainian schools have had to be evacuated since the start of the year amid a spate of fake bomb threats that Kyiv blames on Russia.

Defending Ukraine's Territorial Integrity

"Putting things in writing is a good way to make sure we're as precise as possible, and the Russians understand our positions."

"Right now, the document is with them, and the ball is in their court."

"We made clear [in the diplomatic dispatch] that there are core principles that we are committed to uphold and defend, including Ukraine's sovereignty and territorial integrity and the right of states to choose their own security arrangements and alliances. There is no change. There will be no change."

U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken

US Secretary of State Antony Blinken, left, and Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov move to their seats before their meeting, Jan. 21, 2022, in Geneva.

 

It hardly seems possible that Russian President Vladimir Putin really thought he could demand that the United States and NATO accede to his no-compromise demand that would effectively give him control over how NATO must henceforth interpret its own rules and regulations. Mr. Putin is a realist, but has stated his ultimatum like a fabulist. It would be NATO's decision, not Russia's demands that would decide when and whether Ukraine would be welcomed into the alliance's fold.

"We call on Russia once again to immediately de-escalate the situation. NATO firmly believes that tensions and disagreements must be resolved through dialogue and diplomacy", responded Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg from Brussels, in the wake of NATO having sent its own written response addressing Russia's security demands. 

A resolve that was entirely predictable, and one which, acted on, has seen Russia and more specifically its president, Vladimir Putin, placed between a rock and a hard place, entirely of his own making. Still, the offer has been extended from NATO to Moscow in the recommendation to re-establish respective offices in Brussels and Moscow with the intention of resorting back to military channels of communication (and presumably compromise) in the pursuit of transparency and risk reduction.

Russia, of course, has its own perceptions of accommodation, meant to be extracted from NATO, not to be placed firmly in the place of the adversary required to relent on its threats to prevent an escalation of an already-tense situation in Europe. For what affects eastern Europe also has its effect on all of Europe, if for no other good reason than energy dependency in the west on the natural resources of the east.

"If the West continues its aggressive course, Moscow will take the necessary retaliatory measures", responded Russia's foreign minister, Sergey Lavrov. It was the U.S. ambassador to Moscow who handed the American written response to Alexander Grushko, the deputy foreign minister, leading Mr. Blinken to say "I have no doubt that Mr. Lavrov will share the letter with President Putin, and perhaps everybody else." No sooner done than said, to twist an old phrase.

 

German Chancellor Olaf Scholz inherited a sticky situation that his predecessor handled with a measure of tolerance for her Russian counterpart. To him now is left the details leading to an answer to the question whether Germans will freeze in their homes this winter, or be forced to cut back factory production should pressure from NATO and the U.S. prevail to the point of stopping the Nord Stream gas pipeline from Russia, bypassing Ukraine, into Germany. 

While the United Kingdom has gone out of its way to assure Ukraine and give it material support, demanding its European allies "do more" to deter an anticipated Russian invasion, the German chancellor speaks of following a long-standing policy of refusing to supply arms to conflict zones. It would instead, send 5,000 helmets to Ukraine, in a reflection of Canada's offer to send more night-vision goggles and flak jackets when Ukraine is pleading for arms.

 

A Russian army service member fires a howitzer during drills at the Kuzminsky range in the southern Rostov region, Russia, on Jan. 26.  SERGEY PIVOVAROV/Reuters

"Germany sells arms to Egypt, which is involved in conflicts with Yemen and Libya, but does not want to supply arms to Ukraine. That's hypocrisy", pointed out Lieut.-General Ben Hodges, formerly a U.S. army commander in Europe. "In sending 5,000 helmets to Ukraine, the government only worsens its own and Germany's position", stated the leader of the German opposition Christian Democrats. "It's embarrassing that the government believes the scope of this crisis could be expressed in helmets."

"We'll be legislating to toughen up our sanctions regime and make sure we are fully able to hit those individuals and companies and banks in Russia in the event of an incursion."

"What's important is that all of our allies do the same, because it's by collective action by showing Vladimir Putin [that] we are united."

"We would like to see our allies do more to help supply defensive support to Ukraine, and also put those sanctions in place."

Elizabeth Truss, U.K. Foreign Secretary

Activists hold a poster to thank the British government for support during a rally at the British embassy in Kyiv, Ukraine, Friday, Jan. 21, 2022. The UK sent 30 elite troops and 2,000 anti-tank weapons to Ukraine amid fears of Russian invasion.

No Sooner Warned Than Struck : Russian CyberAttacks

"Canada's Cyber Centre ... is aware of foreign cyber threat activities, including by Russian-backed actors, to target Canadian critical infrastructure network operators, their operational and information technology."

"[Attacks could arrive in a range of forms from a] widespread ransomware attack [to a] single, carefully focused [attempt to significantly impact core infrastructure]."

Cyber Centre Agency, Communications Security Establishment

 

"The depth of the information provided by the U.S. and the urgency used underlines the seriousness of this situation. These government bulletins do not come without sufficient research and justification."

"While we can speculate what exactly drove this alert, the more important message is that the entire world should be watching the heightened tensions surrounding Russia's intentions toward Ukraine and, especially, the recent publicly acknowledged cyberattacks."

"A cuberattack on any of Canada's critical support systems could cause crippling disruption to the population and the economy. For this reason, protecting critical infrastructure and the operational technology behind it is increasingly regarded as a mater of national security."

"Canada and our allies have experienced a general increase in cyberthreat activity throughout the last year, including ransomware attacks, supply chain attacks, and the exploitation of discovered vulnerabilities in commonly used software."

"Russian-linked groups have been among the drivers of this activity."

"Should Russia-backed cyber threat activity launch against Canada, we can expect to see anything from a widespread ransomware attack to a single, carefully focused but impactful attack on our infrastructure."

"It may take some time to work out what is going on (or what happened) as Russia has a long history of distracting opponents from its real intentions."

David Masson, director, Darktrace cyber-A1 defence company 

"Russian state-sponsored advanced persistent threat actors have used sophisticated cyber capabilities to target a variety of U.S. and International critical infrastructure organizations, including those in the Defense Industrial Base as well as the Healthcare and Public Health, Energy, Telecommunications, and Government Facilities Sectors."

U.S. Bulletin

Intelligence experts in recent years have been warning about the growing frequency of cyber attacks by foreign states. Photo by Sean Kilpatrick/The Canadian Press/File

Russia uses all manner of cold-war, 21st Century battlefields delivering messages to those countries that provoke Moscow's ire of their displeasure, through their ability to negotiate around cyberspace and threaten the infrastructure and social order of countries opposed to Russia's moves on the international scene. In 2007 Estonia, a former Soviet Union satellite, assaulted Moscow's sensibilities by removing a memorial to the Soviet Red Army to a loss prominent position, and paid for its audacity through a devastating series of major cyberattacks that shut down banks, media outlets and government offices.

 

Russian speakers rose up on the streets in protest at the statue's move - and cyber attackers followed behind   Getty Images

 In more recent years, after the 2014 start of an ethnic-Russian Ukrainian separatist group in the Donbas and Russia's military incursion, arming and fighting alongside the separatists against Ukraine, culminating in Russia's claiming of the Crimea Peninsula as Russian territory, the standoff between Ukraine and the separatists in Donetsk and Luhansk in eastern Ukraine while leading to active hostilities and violence also saw Ukraine suffering cyberattacks threatening its electrical system power grid in 2015. 

 

And in mid-January Kyiv experienced cyberattacks on government offices, with an eerily sinister message: : "Be afraid and expect the worst." This, in the buildup to a feared Russian invasion of Ukraine, reclaiming what Vladimir Putin insists is a historical connection between the two countries as one. And the 'one' who controls Ukraine would be Russia. Embodying Mr. Putin's other cherished aspiration, to appeal to the better sense of its neighbours to return to the good old days of the USSR, within Russia's loving embrace.

A threatening message appeared on Ukrainian government websites on 14 January, 2022

Detailed warnings arrived in Canada from the United States and United Kingdom cybersecurity sections of the imminence of Russian actors imposing hostile, threatening and damaging cyberattacks within Canada. Both the U.S. and the U.K. warned that their own cybersecurity communities are in a "heightened state of awareness, proactively searching out risks to their networks in response to threats from Russia", looming increasingly in the very near future.

Two years earlier Canada's CSE warned that state-sponsored threat actors like Russia were "very likely" trying to develop tools to allow them to disrupt critical infrastructure "such as the supply of electricity", concluding that the attackers were not likely to want to disrupt critical infrastructure in Canada to cause "major damage or loss of life". But for the major caveat "in the absence of international hostilities". Well, those international hostilities have eventuated with Russia's massing of a 100,000 troops on the Ukraine border and deliberate additional provocations enlisting Belarus and Kazakhstan bordering Ukraine, in its assault plans.

Belarusian peacekeepers leave a Russian military plane at an airfield in Kazakhstan, Saturday, Jan. 8, 2022. As Kazakhstan struggles to cope with a violent uprising this week, it has turned for help to a Russian-led security bloc, the Collective Security Treaty Organization.The Associated Press

"Critical services for Canadians through Global Affairs Canada (Department of Foreign Affairs) are currently functioning. Some access to internet and internet-based services are not currently available as part of the mitigation measures and work is underway to restore them."

"At this time, there is no indication that any other government departments have been impacted by this incident."

"The Government of Canada deals with ongoing and persistent cyber risks and threats every day. Cyber threats can result from system or application vulnerabilities, or from deliberate, persistent, targeted attacks by outside actors to gain access to information."

Treasury Board of Canada Secretariat

(RedPixel/stock.adobe.com)

So there it is. No sooner said than done. Cyberattacks against Canadian government departments are not new, they have been occurring with some regularity of recent times. And the suspects are usually China or Russia. This latest attack that occurred on the very day that Canada's cyberdefence agency warned of Russian-backed threats, was a significant attack, a cyber incident  causing disruption to a group of departmental systems. The Canadian Centre for Cyber Security, which had warned of such an attack's likelihood is now investigating what it had predicted.

Civilian participants in a Kyiv Territorial Defence unit train in a forest on January 22, 2022, in Kyiv, Ukraine. (Sean Gallup/Getty Images)

The Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces patrolling Hasaka, Syria, on Monday.   Credit...Baderkhan Ahmad/Associated Press

"Responsibility for anything that happens to these children also lies at the door of foreign governments who have thought that they can simply abandon their child nationals in Syria."

"Risk of death or injury is directly linked to these governments’ refusal to take them home."

Sonia Khus, Syria director for Save the Children

 

"We help them to construct their prisons, to train their staff, to run as good a prison system as they can, but they are not getting what they need."

"Prisoners are lying on top of each other."

Anne Speckhard, director, International Center for the Study of Violent Extremism

 

"[The siege highlighted the need for international financial support to improve security at the prison]."

"It also underscores the urgent need for countries of origin to repatriate, rehabilitate, reintegrate and prosecute, where appropriate, their nationals detained in northeast Syria."

U.S. State Department

Fighters of the Syrian Democratic Forces in Hasaka on Monday.   Credit...Ahmed Mardnli/EPA, via Shutterstock

"On whatever support the Coalition has been given to the SDF as they have dealt with this and continue to deal with this prison break, I can tell you that we have provided some air strikes to support them as they deal with this particular prison break," 

Pentagon Spokesman John Kirby

The Kurdish fighting force known as the Syrian Democratic Forces converted an old technical school comprising three buildings into a prison to hold Islamic State foreign fighters. An estimated 40,000 foreign jihadists from Europe, North America, Australia and the Middle East travelled to Syria to join the Islamic State when it was expanding its 'caliphate' in at least a third of the territory of both Syria and Iraq. Prisoners totalled an estimated 12,000 suspected terrorists representing 50 nationalities.

 

Syria and Iraq have taken their own nationals to stand trial and be dealt with, but very few countries outside the Middle East have seen fit to repatriate their nationals to have them stand trial for war crimes. Some countries have accepted orphan children that lived in Raqqa, the ISIL 'capital' of its 'caliphate', to attempt to restore them to normalcy, but the majority feel that hard evidence to be used at trials is too difficult to obtain to allow them to conduct lawful trials and enact lawful criminal punishment.

 

The Kurdish Peshmerga were at the front lines, backed by the United States, fighting Islamic State most effectively. The Syrian and Iraqi militaries were intimidated and fearful of the grim reputation for gross brutality of medieval-style assaults that exemplified Islamic State terrorists. State military forces had a tendency to melt away, leaving their military equipment, much of it supplied by the United States, to be captured by Islamic State as it terrified communities and took possession of larger swaths of land.

 

The Kurdish forces have for years pleaded with countries abroad to take back their nationals. Not only had the Kurds been in the front lines fighting Islamic State, but they were also left to pick up the pieces once the jihadists had been vanquished, their territorial 'caliphate' recovered, their remaining militias dispersed and in hiding. Over the subsequent years they have slowly been recovering, absorbing new recruits attracted to their message of jihadist supremacy, and enacting brief guerrilla skirmishes now and again.

Some of the 300 ISIS fighters who surrendered on Monday in a photo provided by the Syrian Democratic Forces. Credit...Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces, via Associated Press

 The Islamic State attack on the prison holding former fighters, many among them high-echelon commanders, is the most ambitious yet of its attack enterprises, with the intention of releasing all the prisoners held at the Ghwayran jail in the city of Al-Hasakah, Thursday. It was a well-orchestrated surprise event, and leading the way was a suicide-bombing truck crashing the prison gates. Once inside the prison Islamic State members set about executing Kurdish guards, and gun battles between the SDF defenders and the ISIS guerrillas ensued.

Boys as young as 12, including Syrians, Iraqis and some 150 non-Arab foreigners are housed in one section of the prison campus. Once teens are considered too old to remain in the detention camps meant to hold families of Islamic State suspects, they are routinely transferred to the prison. Most children were exposed by their parents to the ISIL-jihadi ideology, had seen and identified with atrocities and had themselves taken part.

 

Non-jihadi sensitivities look on at the presence of children in prisons holding terrorists aghast at the situation. For the Islamic State group the imprisoned children represented a strategic convenience to assert that they were their hostages, and would become casualties should the situation call for such a move. Once the jihadist launched their assault on the prison with the intention of releasing thousands of its former fighters they felt they had the upper hand.

 

The fierce response of the Kurdish forces dictated otherwise, and the aerial bombing of the U.S. in aiding the SDF reflected a situation that would be temporary, if costly in human life. Where over 200 people were killed during the clashes. What the Islamic State terrorists did emphasize in this assault was that the loss of their caliphate three years earlier hadn't demoralized and defeated the ideology; it carries on, and its vicious intentions are still as terrifying as they were before their defeat.

 

An American attack helicopter flies over Hasaka on Monday. The United States has been conducting airstrikes there for four days.  Credit...Baderkhan Ahmad/Associated Press

There was a reported 200 'insurgents' and suicide bombers intent on freeing imprisoned jihadists. On Sunday the jihadis attempted to break up a security cordon of SDF fighters north of the prison with the intention of supporting inmates of the prison who were rioting, taking control of portions of the facility. The jihadi commanders within the prison, there would be little doubt, were taking full advantage of the riotous battles taking place outside the complex.

In the first four days of the fighting, 175 ISIL members died, according to Siamand Ali, a spokesman for the SDF, while 27 members of the SDF were killed in the firing scrimmages. During the fighting, fearful villagers evacuated the area. Fleeing ISIL terrorists were invading homes to serve as hiding places, threatening and killing the inhabitants. Kurdish security forces were also busy aiding the civilians in their flight to safety.

Hundreds of the jihadists have been recaptured while dozens remain at loose, according to the London-based Syrian Observatory of Human Rights. Elsewhere in pretrial detention facilities ten thousand terror group members are being held by the Kurdish militia. As for the Hasaka jail, Kurdish authorities have long warned of insufficient resources to secure that number of prisoners in what amounted to makeshift facilities, while awaiting repatriation. 

This photo provided by the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces shows some Islamic State group fighters who were arrested.

Punishing Dissenters ... There is No Escape From the CPC

"To escape further persecution, he [Dong Guangping], managed to make it to Thailand in 2015, where he was granted official refugee status by the UNHCR."

"As he awaited resettlement to Canada in a Bangkok immigration detention centre, Chinese police walked in, handcuffed him in front of Thai officers and led him out."

"Dong later resurfaced in detention in China ... where he was sentenced to three years in prison."

"Foreign governments must ensure all diplomatic discussions on these issues take place in an open, transparent and public space and, where possible, expose activities carried out on its soil by overseas agencies that violate its judicial sovereignty."

"Without transparency, violators are encouraged to continue and expand their activities. Silence will increase the transgressions, not reduce them."

Safeguard Defenders human rights, Madrid

 

"The main purpose of Xi isn’t just to get these people back to China — it’s to prevent Chinese high-level government officers from escaping from China."

"He wants to show even if you escape to the U.S., I can still get you back to China."

Gao Guangjun, New York-based attorney

Police stand outside a detention centre housing Uyghurs in Xinjiang Province  AP

 

According to a report from Safeguard Defenders. an estimated 1,421 forced repatriations took place in 2020 and another 1,114 in 2021. The human rights group estimated an increase in forced repatriations despite widespread travel restrictions where China sought out and forcibly returned "fugitives" it represents as criminals, back to China, where they are prosecuted and sent to prison.

 

These are called out as state-sanctioned kidnapping, labelling Chinese who disagree with the ruling Chinese Communist Party as a dictatorship holding the entire population hostage to its Marxist ideology and thus becoming enemies of the state who can be accused of undermining the authority of the government and face prison sentences.

According to Chinese government sources responding to criticism, these people are taken back to China to face trial for economic crimes or for crimes related to their official duties. The targets, however, stand out as "lawyers, dissidents, bloggers, journalists, Tibetans, Uyghurs and Hong-Kongers". Methods used in their capture range from refusal to renew passports,  to covert operations viewed as "state-sanctioned kidnappings", according to the Safeguard Defenders report.

The report mentions the issuing of Interpol red notices, the intimidation of family members in China by state actors, and state agents taking to threatening their targets in person. Among some of the targets have been those tricked into travelling to a third country from which they could be extradited.

The case was cited of a Chinese human rights defender, Dong Guangping, who had previously served three years in prison in China on charges of inciting subversion of state power in the early 2000s. In 2014 he was again sentenced to another detention of eight months, before he escaped, only to be  hounded down and brought back to China.

According to data cited in the report, Uyghurs are being targeted increasingly in a similar vein. Over 300 cases have been tracked by the Uyghur Human Rights Project, which warns the real number is likely to be much higher in actual fact. For its part, China has always denied kidnappings or that the state violates foreign and international laws.

 

Yet since 2015, Beijing's Operation Sky Net has made targets of thousands of 'criminals' sought by China to be brought from abroad where they are illegally captured to be taken back to China. The program appears to have been expanded to include Uyghurs seeking refuge abroad, escaping their persecution in Xinjiang and their mass detention for forced labour.

Chinese President Xi Jinping is seen on a giant screen as he delivers a speech at the event marking the 100th founding anniversary of the Communist Party of China, on Tiananmen Square in Beijing, China, July 1, 2021.

Testing the Waters Around Foot-in-Mouth Gaffes

"[Putin will] move in [on Ukraine, but such an attack would have] disastrous [consequences for Russia]."

"It depends on what it does."

"It's one thing if it's a minor incursion, and then we [in NATO] end up having a fight about what to do and not do." 

"It did sound like that [giving Russia 'permission' for a 'minor incursion'], didn't it ?"

U.S. President Joe Biden

 

"We want to remind the great powers that there are no minor incursions and no small nations."

"Just as there are no minor casualties and little grief from the loss of loved ones."

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky 

"If any Russian military forces move across the Ukrainian border, that ... it will be met with a swift, severe, and united response from the United States and our allies."

White House clarification

Vitaly Nevar/TASS

 

"In accordance with a plan for training the Russian armed forces in 2022 a series of naval exercises will be held in January-February in all zones of the fleets’ responsibility under the general guidance of the commander-in-chief of the Russian Navy, Admiral Nikolay Yevmenov."

"The exercises will encompass seas washing Russia and also World Ocean areas of key importance. There will be some exercises in the Mediterranean and Northern seas and the Sea of Okhotsk, in the Northeastern Atlantic and in the Pacific."

"Participating in the exercise from Russia will be a group of ships from Russia’s Pacific Fleet: the guided missile cruiser Varyag, anti-submarine ship Admiral Tributs, and sea-going fuel tanker Boris Butoma."

"After that the Pacific Fleet’s group of ships will proceed to the Mediterranean to team up with the forces of the Northern and Baltic Fleets for a joint exercise."

Russian Defense Ministry

Next up in Vladimir Putin's none-too-subtle trial rehearsals to see how far he can push before he is shoved back into position. He may, on the other hand, not experience a shove of any note, and this is likely what he is seeking to validate prior to the last, big push. Testing the waters, so to speak. And so he has spoken, advising the world at large, watching and waiting, of a sweeping set of naval exercises where the entirety of the Russian fleet from the Pacific to the Atlantic is to be showcased from a position of strength. What better time than during this tense standoff with the West.

The seas adjacent to Russia and featuring manoeuvres in the Mediterranean, the North Sea, the Sea of Okhotsk, of the northeast Atlantic Ocean and the Pacific, all will be involved in this grandly broad display of naval power. On display will be 140 warships and support vessels, 60 planes, 1,000 units of military hardware and roughly10,000 servicemen, according to the Russian Ministry of Defense. Reflecting Moscow's recent show-and-tell investment in upgrading its advanced-technology war arsenal.

This, alongside the Russian troop buildup on Ukraine's border, augmented by hawkish rhetoric, alerting the West to fears of an oncoming regional war that may surely expand, even as the U.S., the U.K. and other signal members of NATO have recently and firmly expressed no intention of becoming involved directly in a war footing. Increased sanctions should do it, as well as destabilizing Russia's banking system, they claim of a Russia that has managed to overcome previous sanctions..

Undeterred, and perhaps amused by the display of cynicism the ministry showed a Facebook posting of its Pacific Fleet's diesel-electric submarine test-firing a Kalibr cruise missile toward a land-based target from an underwater position in the Sea of Japan. Japan, of course, has its own history with Russia, in the Russo-Japanese war, and their ongoing dispute of the territorial ownership of an island both claim as theirs. What China routinely does, Russia can, too.

Like Kim Jong-un boasting of successful missile strikes in the Sea of Japan, Russia's missile struck a coastal target in the far eastern Khabarovsk region from a range of over 1,000 km. Impressive enough to turn heads with a degree of consternation implicit in the revelation. 

President Zelensky, hauling himself out of what must have been an apoplectic fit of disbelief, summoned the dignity of self-defence to rebuke his would-be benefactor, Joe Biden, for the suggestion NATO might not see fit to react to a "minor incursion", pointing out the obvious, that the comments represented a "green light" inviting Vladimir Putin to proceed with his threatened invasion, restoring Ukraine to Greater Russia.

In this photo taken from video provided by the Russian Defense Ministry Press Service, A Russian armored vehicle drives off a railway platform after arrival in Belarus, Wednesday, Jan. 19, 2022. In a move that further beefs up forces near Ukraine, Russia has sent an unspecified number of troops from the country’s far east to its ally Belarus, which shares a border with Ukraine, for major war games next month. The Biden administration is unlikely to answer a further Russian invasion of Ukraine by sending U.S. combat troops. But it could pursue a range of less dramatic yet still risky options, including giving military support to a post-invasion Ukrainian resistance. (Russian Defense Ministry Press Service via AP)