Saturday, July 30, 2022

Sleep-Walkng Into Energy Dependency

 

"My input to [German] Ambassador [to Canada] Sabine Sparwasser [16 months earlier], was that approval of the Nord Stream 2 pipeline [bringing more natural gas from Russia] would put her country in a precarious position where a significant portion of their gas would arrive from one, potentially hostile foreign power. I raised the notion of 'moral hazard' and the potential outcomes to the economies of Europe if the worst was to unfold. From a national interest perspective, I pushed on the need to advance the supply of LNG from Canada. If Germany would become a committed buyer of our resource, it would advance development."
"Of course, while Russian gas from Nord Stream 2 would have been cheaper than LNG from Canada, the price would have been more than made up for by the security and reliability of purchasing from a trusted NATO ally."
"Although renewables constitute upward of 50 percent of Germany's power supply, at other times it is less than 2.0 percent. Other sources, such as nuclear and fossil fuels, are needed too ensure reliable baseload power."
"Despite hundreds of billions of euros spent on renewable energy Germany has become an energy-insecure nation."
Greg McLean, Member of Parliament for Calgary Centre, Conservative Shadow Minister for Natural Resources
Nord Stream worker at controls
Russia has cut the amount of the natural gas it sends to Europe by closing down a turbine on the Nord Stream 1 pipeline.  Getty Images
 
When Japan's Fukushima nuclear plant became a casualty after a powerful earthquake caused a tsunami destroying the installation, the world looked on in horror. Japan's geographical location is earthquake-prone. The nuclear station was built in an area vulnerable to tsunami action, and the part of the reactor that was flooded was built in a poor choice of location at the site. Japan is usually fastidious about details; on this occasion, not so much and the result was catastrophic.

The reaction in Europe, particularly in Germany and France was immediate; both planned to be less reliant on nuclear energy and to shutter their nuclear plants. The co-inventor of the Gaia theory, James Lovelock, died at an advanced age on July 27 2022 – his 103rd birthday.He and U.S. biologist Lynn Margolus theorized in the 1970s that Earth is a self-regulating system maintained by communities of living organisms which adjust oxygen and carbon dioxide levels in the atmosphere, salinity in the ocean and the planet’s temperature within acceptable bounds to enable life to thrive.
 
And this brilliant man was an enthusiastic and knowable exponent of nuclear power as the most economical, reliable and cleanest energy source extraction, from the depths of his scientific knowledge. A source far preferable for so many reasons, among them dispelling the need to continue extracting fossil fuels from the subterranean levels of the planet. 
 
Led by the most prosperous country in Europe, Germany, Europeans trapped themselves into believing that becoming dependent on gas supplied from Russia brought with it a minor risk, that the Russian Federation could safely be viewed as a partner in a business enterprise, and not a political adversary. Above all, subscribing to the belief that the continent was no longer endangered by the prospect of conventional war. The first step of minimally importing Russian gas and oil led to an ever-increasing dependency to the point where Moscow has now, predictably used its position as a major source of energy to Europe, as a cudgel.

German politicians characterized the Nord Stream project pipeline as a "commercial project', absent a political context. Berlln had decided to shutter its nuclear energy sector, becoming ever more dependent on Russian sources of energy, helped along by the 2011 Fukushima disaster. Japan sits in the middle of the Pacific Ocean, Germany is located in the middle of the European continent. This does not require heavy thinking; it is the result of lazy thinking.
 
Pipes for the Nord Stream 2 Baltic Sea pipeline in Mukran
Pipes for the Nord Stream 2 Baltic Sea pipeline are stored on a site at the port of Mukran in Sassnitz, Germany, September 10, 2020. REUTERS/Hannibal Hanschke/File Photo
 
The illusion that after the dissolution of the Soviet Union, Russia was just another country in Europe, prepared to accept the values and regulatory and international guidelines all other European nations lived by, lulled them all into a sense of complacency. Becoming indebted to Russia for critical energy sourcing allowed Moscow an upper hand at a time when sanctions were biting into the Russian economy while it was expending vast resources on its 'special military invasion' of Ukraine.

An aghast Europe flocked to the side of Ukraine, comforting the country with its concern for its future, offering to boost its military materiel, its economy, welcoming refugees and punishing the Kremlin with sanctions. The Kremlin looked sideways at its critics who failed to understand Moscow's need for security from the threat of fascism on its borders, and the responsibility President Vladimir Putin felt to rescue Ukrainians from the fascist grip of the neo-Nazis bringing this ruin on Ukraine by defying Russia's crusade to save the nation.

Germany failed to take Russia's annexation of Crimea seriously because it was just too awkwardly inconvenient at a time when gas and oil was filling a critical energy need in Europe and most particularly, Germany, the wealthiest, most powerful nation in Western Europe. Cringing before Moscow's illegal takeover of Crimea, by simply ignoring it. Leading Germany's Siemens to visit Moscow in the face of the "short-term turbulence" in their constructive relationship.
 
Ship laying pipeline at sea
Nord Stream 1 supplies Germany with the majority of its gas from Russia   Reuters
 
The Trump administration threatened sanctions should Nord Stream 2 pipeline proceed, but Frank-Walter Steinmeier as foreign minister endorsed an "economic-political" partnership between Moscow and the European Union in Yekaterinburg, Russia. Vladimir Putin was given the message he looked for, the minor inconvenience of Crimea would disrupt nothing; time to proceed with annexing Ukraine's industrial heartland in the Donbas. 

Neither Georgia which had experienced two provincial annexations under conflict by Moscow, nor Ukraine were given pathways to membership into NATO because France and Germany felt it not to be a very good idea to wave a red flag at a raging bull they were doing business with in an economic-political union of energy convenience.

With President Obama's 'reset' with Moscow, central and eastern European statesmen penned an open letter with the declaration that: "Russia is back as a revisionist power pursuing a 19th century agenda with 21st century tactics and methods". How very visionary. How very surprising. Now look where we are. Do you see it?

Map showing the route of the Nord Stream pipelines between Russia and Germany.

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Friday, July 29, 2022

Another Dread Zoonotic Surfacing in Africa

 

"Marburg is a highly infectious viral hemorrhagic fever in the same family as the more well-known Ebola virus disease."
"In 2008, two independent cases were reported in travellers who visited a cave inhabited by Rousettus bat colonies in Uganda."
World Health Organization

"WHO is on the ground supporting health authorities [in Ghana where the latest outbreak has occurred] and now that the outbreak is declared, we are marshalling more resources for the response."
Dr.Matshidiso Moeti, Regional Director for Africa, World Health Organization
Rousettus aegyptiacus or Egyptian fruit bats. Prolonged exposure to mines or caves where they live can result in human infection of the deadly Marburg virus disease.
In 1967 two cases of the disease occurred, one in Marburg and Frankfurt, Germany, the other in Belgrade, Serbia. This is the origin of the naming of the virus; Marburg. The cases were traced back to a laboratory working with African green monkeys that had been imported from Uganda. The WHO reports that prolonged exposure to mines or caves where colonies of bats live can result in human infection.

The Ghana Health Service's Disease Surveillance Department recommends certain steps in avoidance of contracting the virus; abstaining from consuming bush meat; washing hands frequently with soap and water, and taking care not to handle dead bodies of those who may have had the Marburg virus. Timely and sterling recommendations for Africa, should outbreaks continue to be confined to that continent.

The suspected causes and such exposure leading to a virus leaping the species barrier from wild animals to humans has a familiar ring to it for most people; it was at the live animal market in Wuhan, China, that transmission from animal [bats infecting commonly consumed mammals] to human took place; bush animals sold for human consumption, infected with SARS-CoV-2 transmitted it to people at large through contact in the Huanan market. 
 
The Wuhan Hygiene Emergency Response Team leave the closed Huanan Seafood Wholesale Market in Wuhan, China, on January 11, 2020.

Police in Wuhan, China, shut down the Huanan Seafood Wholesale Market on 1 January, 2020. Credit: Noel Celis/AFP via Getty

Marburg virus is more vindictively fatal than COVID-19; an estimated 88 percent of those infected may never recover. It has an incubation period between two to 14 days. Infection can spread from person to person through direct contact with bodily fluids. Clothing which has been worn by someone infected with Marburg can also become a source of infection. No cure exists for the virus, though treatment for its symptoms is available.

Symptoms of infection include high fever and severe headaches, muscle aches and pains. Severe diarrhea, stomach pain, nausea and vomiting may begin on the infection's third day. Those infected become extremely lethargic. In cases that become fatal, a patient generally bleeds from the nose and gums.

Marburg virus cases and outbreaks have been reported in Angola, Democratic Republic of Congo, Kenya, South Africa and Uganda with links to Zimbabwe. In 2021 an outbreak was declared in Guinea, lasting for five weeks following a single case of the virus.

Out of the 590 people who contracted the disease since 1957, 478 died of it, according to the World Health Organization's data on major outbreaks. Two deaths occurred in June in Ghana when two unrelated people died in hospital following their hospitalization because they were suffering from diarrhea, fever, nausea and vomiting.

Doctor Mark Katz, a member of the World Health Organisation (WHO), taking an oral sample from patient Feliciana suspected of having Marburg haemorrhagic fever in Kinguangua, near Uige. Feliciana’s grandmother, sister and ex-husband died of Marburg haemorrhagic fever. The young woman tested negative after being transported to the Uige Provincial Hospital for observation.
Doctor Mark Katz, a member of the World Health Organisation (WHO), taking an oral sample from patient Feliciana suspected of having Marburg haemorrhagic fever in Kinguangua, near Uige. Feliciana’s grandmother, sister and ex-husband died of Marburg haemorrhagic fever. The young woman tested negative after being transported to the Uige Provincial Hospital for observation. Photo by CHRISTOPHER BLACK/AFP/Getty Images


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Thursday, July 28, 2022

War Games in Russia? No Problem!

 

Russia Zapad
"A lot of troops and gear from the eastern MD [military district] have already been deployed, rotated, lost and killed in Ukraine since February, so this will be interesting to see what they can salvage."
Mathieu Boulegue, military specialist, London's Chatham House think-tank
 
"We draw your attention to the fact that only a part of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation is involved in the special military operation [in Ukraine], the number of which is quite sufficient to fulfill all the tasks set by the Supreme Commander-in-Chief."
Russian Defence Ministry

"Taking counter-terrorism and stability maintenance as the mission scenario, the 'Zapad/Interaction2021' joint exercise will see Chinese and Russian troops jointly carrying out strikes against terrorist forces in mixed groups."
"The special operations forces of both sides will complete the task of seizing the high ground and trench in accordance with the pre-plan, and then carry out the task of penetrating the enemy in depth."
Chinese Military
 
"The Zapad-2021 joint strategic drills are a defensive exercise that reaffirms the course of the Republic of Belarus towards strengthening regional security and the commitment to allied obligations with the Russian Federation."
Chief, Belarusian General Staff and First Deputy Defense Minister Viktor Gulevich
Russian service members hold drills in the Rostov region
A Russian service member is seen on a BMP-3 infantry fighting vehicle during drills held by the armed forces of the Southern Military District at the Kadamovsky range in the Rostov region, Russia February 3, 2022. REUTERS/Sergey Pivovarov

Russia's joint military exercises with Belarus and China last year was an enormous enterprise. These are annual events for the Russian Federation with its allies. The exercises took place both in the west and the east, a logistical stretch incorporating Russia's vast territory. Russia has now announced, that despite its focus on the war it brought to Ukraine and the fact that its troops are heavily mired down in eastern Ukraine, it will have no problem mounting military exercises in its Eastern theatre.

Strategic military exercises are scheduled to take place in Russia's east, starting next month according to the Russian defence ministry. It can deploy, the ministry said, thousands of miles from the Ukraine war with unattached troop personnel and advanced weaponry to stage its usual war games. Demonstrating its flexibility, and capacity in terms of troops and materiel, and above all the expense incurred to do so. 
 
Its economy is shaken, but not broken, and Russia is out to show it remains fully operational, financially whole and capable of doing several things at once, thank you very much.
 
https://ik.imagekit.io/po8th4g4eqj/prod/tr:w-1168/zapad-exercise-1168x440px.jpg
Credit RUSI Royal United Services Institute
 
August 30 to September 5 is scheduled for the "Vostok" (East) exercises, the intention to deliver the message that Russia remains focused on defence of its entire territory, capable in the process in military terms of sustaining "business as usual". The five-month war in Ukraine is no constraint, completes the message. Negating, in essence, the heavy losses sustained in men and equipment in its Ukraine adventure.

Troops and military hardware were forwarded to Ukraine from the eastern military district where the war games are to be taking place. No problem. The defence ministry stressed its capacity to stage drills of this nature remains unaffected by Russia's "special military operation" in Ukraine. The snail's pace of Moscow's takeover plans merely a temporary set-back, soon to be corrected. 

According to CIA Director William Burns, the U.S. estimation is that 15,000 Russian troops had died in Ukraine from February forward, representing as many personnel losses sustained by the Soviet army throughout a decade of war in Afghanistan from 1979, while three times that number may have been wounded.
 
Without clarifying from which countries, the exercises according to the Russian defence ministry will include some foreign forces. Part of Siberia is included in the eastern military district, with its headquarters in Khabarovsk, close by the Chinese border. There was close to 300,000 troops reported involved in the 2018 Vostok drills. 

There have been times in the past when relations between Russia and China have been distant and grim. There will be times in the future when relations between the two will go beyond strained. On Russia's side of the border between the two, there is sparse Russian population and a growing presence of Chinese spilling into the territory. While on the Chinese side the populated area is running out of room to expand. Inevitably that expansion will be crossing the border into Russia. 

And just as Russia has always played the game of sending their Russian ethnics to their neighbours' side and later grumbling that they face discrimination and Russia is prepared to 'defend' its ethnics, just as it has done in Georgia and in Ukraine, the tide will turn, with the much more populous China with a too-small territory, and a much-less populous Russia with an expansive territory coming to blows. 
 
For the present and for expedients' sake while both are under Western sanctions, China for exploiting and threatening Taiwan and Hong Kong, and Russia for its illegal crimes in Ukraine, they find comfort in one another's supportive renewed friendships.
 
Credit RUSI Royal United Services Institute
 
 

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Wednesday, July 27, 2022

Moscow Wringing Out Europe's Winter Gas Shortages Fears

"It puts stress on Europe for gas curtailments."
"If there are no effective gas and electricity demand savings implemented now there will be inevitable curtailments for industries in the case of [a] cold winter."
Mauro Chavez Rodriguez, research director, European gas & LNG, Wood Mackenzie Ltd.

"[The government is] monitoring the situation very closely [together with the Federal Network Agency]."
"According to our information, there is no technical reason for a reduction in deliveries [of gas]."
German Economy Ministry

"[Russia is] not interested [in a complete cut-off of its gas deliveries to Europe]."
"[However], if Europe continues its course of absolutely recklessly imposing sanctions and restrictions that are hitting it, the situation may change."
Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov
Gazprom logo displayed at St. Petersburg International Economic Forum (SPIEF)
A view shows a screen with the logo of Gazprom at the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum (SPIEF) in Saint Petersburg, Russia June 17, 2022. REUTERS/Anton Vaganov/
 
Less than a week after returning the Nord Stream pipeline link from maintenance, Russia has announced plans to curb natural gas flows. A statement that was anticipated, but which still shocked European energy markets, escalating concerns over a critical supply shortage on the continent for the coming winter.

The link to Germany will see cut shipments by Gazprom PJSC to roughly 20 percent of capacity, from 7:00 a.m. Moscow time Wednesday, warned a statement from the Russian gas giant. Another gas turbine critical for supply is due for maintenance, scheduled to be taken out of service.

Of the remaining gas conduit from Russia to the European Union, gas had been flowing through the pipeline at about 40 percent of capacity since its return on line after ten days of maintenance, from July21. Europe is currently in the grip of its most serious energy crisis in decades, with governments desperate to fill gas storage sites before winter's onset. The broader economy has realized supply shortages, adding to concerns over a potential recession, raising the risk of gas rationing.

Canada had granted an exemption, despite sanctions, for the release and delivery of a Montreal Siemens turbine maintenance schedule. Last week ,Vladimir Putin warned Nord Stream flows could fall again should a disagreement over its turbines which pump gas through the network fail to resolve. Manufactured by Siemens Energy AG, the units are required to be shipped to Canada for maintenance where sanctions-related delays threaten expeditious returns.

A turbine recently serviced remains en route to Russia from Germany amidst delays related to paperwork. Once that component is returned it would allow flows to increase to 40 percent, according to Mr. Putin. Leaving, at present, one turbine only in working condition based on Gazprom's statements. Under normal conditions the station requires six major turbines; the one en route from Canada represents only a second one in operational mode.

Given recent comments from Russia, a Nord Stream flow reduction "was unfortunately expected" according to the head of gas analytics at ICIS. "The key question now is how long will this reduction to just 20 percent of the pipe's capacity actually  last", noted Tom Marzec-Manser.

It has been months that Moscow has curbed European Union gas shipments, an obvious weaponization of energy, resulting in high regional tensions as a reflection of Russia's invasion of Ukraine. The EU is focused on whatever inadequate gas it receives from Russia to fill its winter stockpiles. Every market in Europe is consumed about gas shortages. The European Commission has called on all member-states to take part in the effort to save gas.

Nord Stream supplies were cut by Gazprom in two steps a month earlier, citing issues with turbines at the Porovaya compressor station. Issues, according to the company, caused by delays in repairs by Siemens, related to international sanctions. The turbine shipped from Canada remains in Germany resulting from paperwork delays by Gazprom itself needing to provide the required documents to Siemens.

FILE PHOTO: Pipes at the landfall facilities of the 'Nord Stream 1' gas pipeline are pictured in Lubmin, Germany, March 8, 2022. REUTERS/Hannibal Hanschke/File Photo
Nord Stream 1 provider said gas flows have resumed after maintenance works.
Hannibal Hanschke | Reuters

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Tuesday, July 26, 2022

Military Casualty Numbers Tell The Story of Russia-Ukraine Conflict

"[The US and its allies had delivered nearly 100,000 anti-tank systems.] That’s more than there are tanks in the world."
"They asked for 200 tanks; they got 237 tanks. They asked for 100 infantry fighting vehicles; they got over 300. We’ve delivered, roughly speaking, 1,600 or so air defense systems and about 60,000 air defense rounds.?
"We have also provided over 1,500 Stingers, more than 700 Switchblade tactical unmanned aerial systems, 20 Mi-17 and thousands of small arms and hundreds of thousands of small arms ammunition."
"Ukraine is taking 100 killed and 100 or 200 or 300 wounded per day. I would say those are in the ballpark of our assessments."
"In terms of artillery, they [Russia] do outnumber, they out-gun and out-range. The Russians do outnumber—in terms of artillery, they outnumber the Ukrainians. The estimate varies, some say four, five, six to one, others say 10, 15 to one, others say 20 to one."
U.S. Joint Chiefs of Staff Chairman Mark Milley
BUCHA, UKRAINE - 2022/04/03: Ukrainian soldier inspects the wreckage of a destroyed Russian armored column on the road in Bucha, a suburb north of Kyiv. As Russian troops withdraw from areas north of Ukraine's capital city of Kyiv, Ukrainian forces and the media found evidence of significant numbers of civilian casualties. The Ukrainian authorities are calling the killing of civilians in Bucha and other areas a war crime. (Photo by Matthew Hatcher/SOPA Images/LightRocket via Getty Images)
Ukrainian soldier inspects the wreckage of a destroyed Russian armored column on the road, April 3, 2022, in Bucha, a suburb north of Kyiv   (Matthew Hatcher/SOPA Images/LightRocket/Getty Images)           

To the present time, it is the belief of the United States that Russia's military has undergone hundreds of casualties and continues to suffer even more, on a daily basis through its violent invasion of Ukraine. It has lost to this point an estimation of thousands of lieutenants and captains. The Russian chain of command is struggling, according to a senior American defence official.

Russian forces, contrary to their initial expectations, are grinding, close to five months since the start of the 24 February invasion are slowly struggling through the Donbas region of eastern Ukraine, in the process occupying roughly a fifth of Ukraine's immense territory, second in size only to Russia's own territory, in eastern Europe.

Russian casualties are estimated at 14,000 military personnel killed, with approximately 45,000 wounded, according to CIA Director William Burns. Ukraine, he added parenthetically, also has endured significant casualties in the defence of its homeland. Ukrainian morale is high, Russian morale is not. Ukrainians are motivated to continue doggedly and often successfully defending itself to the point where a turnaround occurs and defence becomes counter-offence.

Along with and in addition to the number of lieutenants and captains killed, there have been hundreds of colonels who failed to survive their nation's ill-conceived invasion of its neighbour. The fact that "many" Russian generals have lost their lives in Ukraine is also indisputable. "The chain of command is still struggling", stated the unidentified American official.
 
The body of a soldier without insignia, believed to be a Russian serviceman, lies on a road outside Kharkiv early in the invasion.
 
Even in non-conflict times, military deaths are classified as state secrets by the Kremlin which has failed to update its official casualty figures during the conflict. This is beyond doubt fairly prudent since to release that information to the Russian public would certainly garner a backlash of unrestrained anger, leading to inconvenient public protests, to be avoided at all costs. 
 
The cost of truth long since abandoned, since that too is a Russian tradition. Back in March, a full month since the February invasion date, Moscow gave a figure of 1,351 Russian soldiers killed. In June the government of Kyiv admitted that 100 to 200 Ukrainian troops were losing their lives every day in defence of their country. 

Ukraine destroyed over 100 "high-value" Russian targets within Ukraine, including command posts, ammunition depots and air-defence sites -- more information released by the United States, which has provided $8.2 billion in security assistance to Ukraine since the war erupted. The Pentagon stated earlier in the week its plans to provide Ukraine with four more high mobility artillery rocket systems (HIMARS) to be included in the latest weapons packet.
 
Russia's attack on Ukraine continues, in the Kharkiv
Ukrainian service members prepare to shoot from a M777 Howitzer at a front line, as Russia's attack on Ukraine continues, in Kharkiv Region, Ukraine July 21, 2022. REUTERS/Gleb Garanich
 
 
 

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Monday, July 25, 2022

Bienvenue, China's Billionaies

Bienvenue, China's Billionaires

"These are clients who realize the chances of getting caught have increased dramatically -- to not a will but a when question."
"That group has now for the first time really contemplated 'I'm going to have to leave some day. There is definitely a wildfire'."
"We've been very busy since the beginning of the year."
"You want to prevent the problem [coming to Chinese authorities' attention as a potential threat to the governing body] and avoid the wildfire, as opposed to trying to put it out after your house is on fire."
"The thing to remember is that Canada is in competition for these Golden Geese and must present an opportunity which is competitive with all the other countries which are also trying to get this group [of mega-wealthy Chinese escaping crackdowns on 'ultra-high net-worth' individuals]."
David Lesperance, Immigration and Taxation lawyer, Poland
Helicopters carry Chinese flags over Hong Kong's Victoria Harbour on the 25th anniversary of the former British colony's handover to Chinese rule, July 1, 2022. There is a growing trend among China’s wealthy to move at least their money, if not themselves, out of the country.
In China of late, a growing urgency has arisen among high-net-worth Chinese, considering it is time to leave Hong Kong or mainland China before government attention lingers too long on their fortunes and their perceived activities. Business people based in the Peoples Republic of China have reason for concern with President Xi Jinping concentrating his power, eliminating opponents while tightening his grip on Hong Kong. One never knows when something quite innocent of intent to Beijing or give it reason to feel that being a billionaire has made one a competitive threat may draw attention.
 
How many of these five Chinese billionaires – who all pulled their money out of China – do you recognise? Photo: Weibo/WeChat/Reuters/Getty
How many of these five Chinese billionaires – who all pulled their money out of China – do you recognize? Photo: Weibo/WeChat/Reuters/Getty
 
The result of which is that a shared nervous tension among China's ultra-wealthy is driving them to seriously consider leaving China, with assets intact, for greener, more relaxed and welcome shores. Destinations of high popularity among this restless group include Australia, New Zealand, and a little geographically further afield, the United Kingdom, the United States, or Canada. Mr. Lesperance is a Canadian who has relocated to be closer to his growing client base, at a kind of cross-roads clearing-house.

He is increasingly being sought out by wealthy business people out of China and Hong Kong urgently intent on leaving the region. Those reaching out need professional assistance and Mr. Lesperance has the experience to help expedite their intentions. He has seen requests tripling in the last few years in lock step with Xi Jinping eliminating perceived threats to his longevity as undisputed ruler of China's 1.4 billion population.
 
2019 Jack Ma Awards Rural Teachers & Headmasters In China
China has not yet seen a mass exodus of its richest.That demographic represents 626 billionaires, a number of the world's wealthy second only to the 724 such Croesus's in the United States. There has been a trend of late among these wealthy Chinese to move their assets to Singapore through the city state's "family office" system. This is a situation not entirely fixed to China. In Saudi Arabia, Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman set to rise to the throne, is giving concern to the ultra-wealthy there, too.

Since coming to power in 2012, President X has brought quite dramatic changes to China, leaving its business tycoons nervously trying to read tea leaves into the future. The extradition treaty proposal of 2019 to remove people from Hong Kong to the mainland to stand trial on espionage and other like charges created a reverberating watchfulness. The National Security Law has empowered authorities to imprison dissidents; among them media mogul Jimmy Lau, in the curbing of democracy.

High-tech sector Jack Ma, billionaire head of the Alibaba technology conglomerate's disappearance in 2020 after publicly criticizing Chinese regulators saw the IPO for his Ant Group suddenly axed. Mysterious disappearances of other wealth moguls amidst President Xi's announcement of a "common prosperity" program to see a more equitable spread of wealth across the entire Chinese population, placed the rich under anxious pressure. Some believe the underlying purpose of such campaigns is focused on eliminating rivals to Mr. Xi's power and control, and that of his Party.

Chen Mailin (left) made his fortune in duck farming before moving to Canada. Photo: Weibo
Chen Mailin (left) made his fortune in duck farming before moving to Canada. Photo: Weibo

 

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Sunday, July 24, 2022

Beijing Bridling at Interference in Its 'Internal Affairs'

"[In all likelihood, China viewed Russia's invasion of Ukraine failing to gain its objective swiftly as] you don't achieve quick decisive victories with underwhelming force."
"Our sense is that it probably affects less the question of whether the Chinese leadership might choose some years down the road to use force to control Taiwan, but how and when they would do it."
"[The risks] become higher, it seems to us, the further into this decade that you get." 
"I suspect the lesson that the Chinese leadership and military are drawing is that you’ve got to amass overwhelming force if you’re going to contemplate that in the future."
"[China also has likely learned that it has to] control the information space [and] do everything you can to shore up your economy against the potential for sanctions."
William Burns, director, U.S. Central Intelligence Agency
Taiwan President Tsai Ing-wen, wearing a military helmet and facemask, visits army reservist troop during a training exercise
President Tsai Ing-wen visits army reservists on exercises. The undertrained force has to be reformed to provide resilience against an attack by China  Ann Wang/Reuters
"[It would] severely undermine China's sovereignty and territorial integrity, gravely impact the foundation of China-U.S. relations and send a seriously wrong signal to Taiwan independence forces [should the United States continue to interfere in China's internal politics]."
Zhao Lijiant, spokesperson, Chinese Foreign Ministry
 
"[Beijing still prefers] peaceful reunification."
"[The US supports] independence [forces in Taiwan, where president Tsai Ing-wen has asserted the island’s separate identity]."
"No conflict and no war is the biggest consensus between China and the United States. [But the United States is] hollowing out and blurring [its stated policy of recognizing only Beijing]."
"Only by adhering strictly to the one-China policy, only by joining hands to constrain and oppose Taiwan independence, can we have a peaceful reunification."
Qin Gang, China’s ambassador to the United States
Taiwanese soldiers hold military drills in Taipei
Taiwanese soldiers hold military drills in Taipei Credit: Ann Wang/Reuters

 China has been aggressively harassing Taipei, entering its air space as a warning that it is growing impatient with the island state's adamant refusal to rejoin the mainland. Beijing's ongoing efforts to isolate Taiwan on the world stage, refusing it recognition as a sovereign state, in the United Nations and in international diplomatic relations is just the initial step in its campaign to return Taiwan to China's tender care. Taiwan is alert to the imminence of an invasion.

The tension between mainland China and its breakaway republic is steadily increasing, thanks to China's more belligerent overtures. Now that Beijing has consolidated its premature hold over Hong Kong, Taiwan is next on its agenda. Xi Jinping makes no secret about his determination to bring Taiwan back into the fold, from its status as a defiant, breakaway republic. He did not hesitate to revoke Hong Kong's semi-autonomous status, despite a signed agreement that status would be in place for a fifty year period.

And nor will he allow world opinion and the censure along with an increased threat not only of economic sanctions imposed by the United States should Beijing move precipitously to regain what it feels it has unjustly lost, but the prospect of a wider conflict should the United States engage in supporting Taiwan with U.S. military intervention, as U.S. President Joe Biden recently asserted.

President Joe Biden (C-L) and Japan’s Prime Minister Fumio Kishida (C-R) review an honor guard in Tokyo
President Joe Biden, during a recent trip to Japan, told a reporter he was willing to use force to defend Taiwan  Eugene Hoshiko/Pool/EPA-EFE
 
 For Beijing and its president, the Russian invasion of Ukraine, the goal somewhat similar in nature to Beijing's own, represents a test case whose prosecution and outcome presents as a lesson in what not to do for a successful and timely outcome in its plans for Taiwan. Moscow's 'strategic failure' is a lesson gained for Beijing, a primary observer directly related to its own, similar plans.

House Speaker Nancy Pelosi - about as senior an American diplomatic presence as any next to the president himself -- plans to visit Taiwan in the coming month, despite that the U.S. military has cautioned her against such plans. Her original plan to visit Taipei in April was postponed when she tested positive for COVID-19. With news of her renewed intention to visit the region, stopping at Japan and Vietnam as well as Taiwan, Beijing has warned of 'repercussions'.
"We are indeed in the midst of very large-scale and thorough discussions both among ourselves and with the Americans right now about the things we need to do." 
"We are exploring a range of radically different ideas for making our country resilient, to build the features we need in wartime."
"Our goal is to be ready between 2025 and 2027 [for China's invasion and attempted occupation of Taiwan to secure 'reunification']."
Senior (unnamed) Taiwanese official
Taiwanese pilots of F-5 fighter jets walk in a hangar
Taipei wants to retain military capabilities, such as its F-5 fighter jets, to counter Chinese incursions  Ritchie B Tongo/EPA-EFE
"It is true that the U.S.-China relationship is in a precarious and possibly dangerous place [given ongoing friction in bilateral ties and uncertainty related to China's domestic politics]."
\"I think that the United States should articulate a clear and consistent policy toward Taiwan and cross-strait issues."
"We have had a significant amount of confusion in U.S. policy that has led China to question what our intentions are."
Bonnie Glaser, director, Asia Programme, German Marshall Fund

 

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Saturday, July 23, 2022

The Kremlin's Rules of War

 

"[President Vladimir] Putin's goal is to unsettle, drive up prices divide society and to weaken support for Ukraine."

"We don't bow to it but counteract this with concentrated and consistent action."
"We take precautions so that we can get through the winter [storing up energy in the face of Moscow's weaponization of oil and gas in response to Western sanctions]."
German Economy Minister Robert Habeck

"Our assessment is, the Russians will find it increasingly difficult to supply men and materiel in the next few weeks."
"They will have to pause in some way and that will give the Ukrainians opportunities to strike back -- their morale is still high and they are starting to receive increasing amounts of good weaponry."
"To be honest, it will be an important reminder to the rest of Europe that this is a winnable campaign."
UK's MI5 head, Richard Moore

"We saw people drenched in blood. We saw people on fire."
"We helped with bringing the wounded to the subway. The smoke was very thick."
"There were many wounded on the street."
Khaibar Karimi, local entrepreneur, Kharkiv
Black smoke rises into the sky from Russian shelling of Kharkiv's Barabashovo market. (Sergey Bobok/AFP/Getty Images)
 
The Russian military does not deliberately strike civilian targets. It would never hit enclaves of civil infrastructure, towns, villages, city suburbs. Its goal is to engage with, to destroy, military emplacements, weapons depots, energy resources to counter Ukraine's aggression against Russian troops. We know this because the Kremlin tells this to the world critical of its decision to leave behind nothing but burning cinders where people once lived in Ukraine. 

Ukraine's second largest city Kharkiv, shelled for the past five months, remains an elusive goal for the Kremlin. Ukrainian nationalists are just so unaccommodating. Yet again it was struck, this time shells hit a crowded market. Leaving residents to stand about confused and disoriented as their world continues to fall apart, the marketplace suddenly bloodstained, people lying dead among the stalls.
 
Damage at a school destroyed by a Russian air bomb in Kharkiv. (Sergey Bobok/AFP/Getty Images)
 
The chief of the Kharkiv national police, Volodymyr Tymoshko, stated the obvious: no military targets are nearby. How the Russian military could have confused the issue is unknown. They are fatigued beyond endurance, resentful of Ukrainian determination to fight back, so there is no reluctance to follow orders to instill a little humility in the arrogant Ukrainians who believe they can counter the Russian military. Hit them hard, where they live and work, to drain them of the impression they can hold out forever.

Russian troops are exhausted from the combat their conflict with Ukraine brought them to, in finally taking Luhansk province. They've been ordered to focus all their energies now on Donetsk province. What energy? The front lines are frozen in fatigue. But they're moving forward to shell Donetsk in preparation for a new advance. After all, Vladimir Putin months ago proclaimed the Donbas to be Russian territory, to be left in the capable hands of its separatist proxies.

Britain's top spy states with confidence that intelligence indicates the Russian military is "running out of steam". A successful counter-strike by Ukrainian forces could yet set Russia on its back feet. It's what happened with the Kremlin's original intention to occupy Kyiv and neutralize the government. Until it ran into too many responding roadblocks and regrouped and withdrew claiming its real intention was the Donbas.

The United States, it would appear, is now prepared to send advanced fighter jets to Ukraine, another advantage on top of the long-range howitzers the Ukrainian military is making good use of, enraging Vladimir Putin by the West's meddlesome interference in what he planned to be an easy campaign of enter, occupy, expand.

A man in a wheelchair moves past rescue workers clearing the rubble of a building of the Kharkiv Regional Institute of Public Administration destroyed by Russian bombardment. (Sergey Bobok/AFP via Getty Images)


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Friday, July 22, 2022

Planning to Holiday in Costa Rica? Beware!

 

"The greatest fear is not to come back alive. I'm hoping for this nightmare to end as soon as possible."
"[It was] very shocking [last week to be confronted by the prison inmate boss at the public prosecutor's office waiting room]."
Pivot Airlines Flight Attendant Alex Rozov

"We have no doubt that this deliberate and staged act of intimidation was a direct and implicit threat against our crew."
"The obvious concern for the crew members is they can't verify that the contents [of the contraband bags carried off then returned by police] that were returned were the same as when they left."
Pivot Airlines CEO Eric Edmondson
The crew of Pivot Airlines was detained in the Dominican Republic in April after millions of dollars worth of cocaine was found aboard their plane. The crew posted a video pleading with Prime Minister Justin Trudeau to help them. (Unifor/YouTube)
 
Costa Rica is a popular island resort destination for many Canadians. So popular that almost a million vacationers leave Canada annually to visit the country. In the face of reports detailing widespread corruption and human rights abuses rife within its legal and corrections systems. But a country known for its pristine beaches and resorts that lure visitors and create tourism wealth for the destination, usually treats those tourists with kid gloves.

Which makes it rather strange that a professional Canadian flight crew and its passengers attached to a small Canadian airline have had an involuntary extended stay in the country with a number of court dates following incarceration on charges of drug smuggling. The chartered plane was scheduled to fly out of the Punta Cana resort town on April 5 with seven passengers, potential investors and their guests entertained by an Alberta company when it was detained.

One of the bags in the CRJ-100's avionics bay was discovered by a Pivot mechanic who thought it might be a bomb. It was in fact, found to contain a suspect substance. Leading the airline to take steps immediately alerting the RCMP as well as Dominican Republic authorities. Local drug police investigating discovered yet another seven bags with prohibited drugs. Which led them to take the Canadian crew and passengers into custody.

They were imprisoned for nine days in crowded conditions and while there an individual who portrayed himself as an incarcerant 'boss' threatened the crew members. The prisoner 'boss' made it clear that unless money was wired to local inmates the crew members would be met with violence. To emphasize the serious nature of their demand, at one point a corpse was placed in front of the prison cell. And then the Pivot Airlines crew was released on bail.

The sinister drama, however, was not yet over. Bail conditions included regular check-ins at the courthouse while an investigation was proceeding. And it was at one of those courthouse check-ins that the same prison inmate boss approached them again. "Pilot, I'll be seeing you very soon", one of the
Canadians was told, while waiting in the prosecutor's office.

Another appeal hearing is scheduled to be held where prosecutors plan to pursue the argument the Canadians should be denied bail and returned to the prison cell. The Canadians' passports are being withheld, they were confiscated when police reported the bags had contained 210 kilograms of cocaine. The airline owners have been in contact with consular officials from Canada; given the situation they are questioning the security of Canadians travelling to the Dominican Republic.

Awaiting Canada's Department of External Affairs and the Canadian government's responses with Dominican counterparts there is no word yet whether any concrete steps have been taken for the release of the Canadians who have been unwilling guests of the justice system in Costa Rica for three months. "The problem", said Pivot's CEO "is that there doesn't seem to be action. They don't seem to be doing anything."

The Pivot captain, Rob DiVenanzo, described in an interview the inmate making constant violent threats through his mobile phone's translation app; even holding the Canadians by force of threat to the toilet area of the tiny cell for three days where they were deprived of food and water. When the judge, after nine days in the prison freed them on bail, he cited a lack of evidence that they were involved in the storage of the bags of illicit drugs.

Bricks of cocaine were found on the plane. (National Drug Control Directorate)

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Thursday, July 21, 2022

Instinctive Courage

 
"I shouted, 'Anybody here? Get out! Get out! Fire!
"I ran inside and looked under beds and closets, but I couldn't find her. But when I got to the stairs that led downstairs, I heard some faint crying."
"I rolled her up in my arm like a football, then felt my way back up the stairs. It was extremely hot and smoky, and it was painful to breathe."
"The only light I could see was coming from the rooms upstairs. So I headed up there."
Nicholas Bostic, passerby, Lafayette, Indiana
 
"His selflessness during this incident is inspiring."
"What he doesn't understand is his actions weren't ordinary, they were extraordinary."
"He went down those stairs to save that little girl when he thought it was impossible just moments before. He knew he was risking his life."
"There's only one way to define that; courageous and heroic."
Lt. Randy Sherer, Lafayette Police Department
The Barrett Family
The Barrett family, of Lafayette, Indiana, whose children were rescued from a house fire by passerby Nick Bostic  | Credit: Go Fund Me
 
Some people are imbued with that level of heroism, to react to emergency events instinctively and with determination to help extract others from dangerous, life-threatening situations. He did calculate his risk, knowing that he was submitting himself through his efforts to rescue a group of children, to the very danger he was anxious to prevent them from suffering. Nevertheless, he pushed on, knowing he must. Perhaps a fleeting argument passed through his mind that he had to live with himself.

A man who works for a pizza establishment, it was not any training as a first-responder that propelled him to action, but rather an inborn sense of responsibility to others drew him to commit himself to a dangerous venture. He was simply the proverbial right man at the right time in the right place to save the lives of five people ranging in age from an infant to an 18-year-old minding her younger siblings in their parents' temporary absence.

The young man, 25, a mere seven years older than the oldest person he led to safety from a raging house fire, was on a mundane mission; he was driving to fill up his vehicle at a gas station at the midnight hour. Then as he passed a two-storey house in Lafayette, Indiana, he realized there were flames licking the front of the house. He braked, turned around and drove into the driveway.
 

                            Donations pour in for ‘hero’ Nick Bostic who rescued five people from house fire in Indiana
Nick Bostic endangered his life to save four children and their 18-year-old sister from fire (Nick Bostic/Facebook and GoFundMe)
 
He had forgotten his cellphone at home and was unable to dial 911. When he attempted to alert another driver he met with no success. Seeing and hearing nothing from the house he ran around to the back, found a door unlocked and rushed in, to be met with thick smoke. He spoke afterward of stinging eyes and nostrils. When he called out whether anyone was there, hoping to establish whether the house was occupied, there was silence, and he turned to leave.

As he did a teenager appeared at the top of the stairs and with her were three young children. The teen was 18, babysitting that July 10 for their absent parents, the three young children her siblings, along with another teen who was a family friend. The family's parents were out for a night of social relaxation. Selonna Barrett had been frantically waking up her charges after smelling smoke. Nicholas Bostic took charge of the situation, ushering everyone out of the house.

Then Selonna informed her rescuer that six-year-old Kaylani remained in the house. The staircase leading downstairs where he heard the crying when he re-entered the burning house was dense with smoke, the heat unbearable. He hesitated for a split second and then plunged down the stairs to search for the child. "I thought, 'I don't want to die here'" he recounted later. Holding his breath he followed the crying voice through complete darkness.

When he reached the child he scooped her into his arms hoping to return the same way he entered. But he was now upstairs and the staircase was suffused with thick smoke and nothing could be seen through the dark haze. He used his right fist to smash a window, wrapped the child next to his left side and leaped the two stories to the ground below.He fell onto his right side, the little girl was cushioned on his left side, by his body.

All of this took 15 minutes. And the  young man's quick thinking saved five lives. Selonna had called her parents and they rushed back home, arriving to discover their home aflame and the six-year-old  with minor injuries being treated by paramedics. Nicholas was sent by ambulance to hospital for treatment for smoke inhalation along with first-degree burns on his buttocks, right ankle and right arm. A neighbour had called 911, spurring firefighters' arrival.

Barrett Family, Nick Bostic
Nick Bostic, center, and girlfriend Kara Lewis, left, with the Barrett family, whose children he saved from a house fire      Credit: Facebook

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