generalspeaking: April 2020

Thursday, April 30, 2020

Britain's COVID-19 Death Count

"The United Kingdom is going to be right up there among the worst-hit nations in the initial surge."
"With the most optimistic views of the amount of immunity that might be being generated, it would still not be close to having enough to be able to return to normal."
Bill Hanage, associate professor of epidemiology, Harvard T.H.Chan School of Public Health

"It is plausible that there are now as many COVID-labelled deaths occurring out of hospital as there are in hospital in England."
David Spiegelhalter, professor of the public understanding of risk, University of Cambridge

In Glasgow, Scotland, on Tuesday, a man walks past a message of support to the U.K.'s National Health Service following the outbreak of COVID-19. Data released Tuesday suggests that the country's death toll is far higher than reported. (Russell Cheyne/Reuters)

In Britain data published on Tuesday indicated that nationwide fatalities exceeded 24,000 from the epidemic of COVID-19, ten days earlier. This release of such a staggering death toll followed hard on Prime Minister Boris Johnson's address speaking of British success in dealing with the novel coronavirus. The newly released figures put another perspective entirely on how Britain is managing; the week ending April 17 turned out to be Britain's deadliest since such records began in 1993.

By April 17, according to the Office for National Statistics, 21,284 people had died in England; their death certificates reflecting mention of COVID-19. Figures out of Scotland, Wales and North Ireland included, brings the total United Kingdom death toll to at least 24,000, and realization of the new reality. Hospital death tolls announced daily by the government have not previously included deaths in community settings such as care homes where fatalities have tripled in a matter of weeks.

Henceforth, assured Health Secretary Matt Hancock, daily figures for deaths in the community would be published in updates. Tuesday figures for COVID deaths in England and Wales overall up to April 17 were greater than 40 percent steeper than he daily toll for recorded deaths in hospitals that were initially announced by government. The scale of the challenge facing the country as Mr. Johnson returns to work after his recovery from COVID-19 is reflected in those newly released figures.

On Monday, Britain's Prime Minister Boris Johnson warned it is still too early to relax social-distancing measures. Johnson returned to Downing Street this week after recovering from COVID-19 (Stefan Rousseau/AFP/Getty Images)

The Prime Minister gave public warning that relaxing stringent measures would be too early and too steep a step at the present for fear of a second deadly outbreak, despite the havoc being wrought to the nation's economy. The revelation of over 24,000 COVID deaths places the United Kingdom among the worst-hit nations in Europe, exceeding even France which has experienced around 5,000 deaths in care homes at the same point.

Spain's death toll is likely to represent the true comparison to where Britain is now heading; even Italy, ranking a truly unfortunate number one as Europe's worst-affected country by the COVID menace. Britain's health ministry releasing its latest daily figures for COVID-19 saw the death toll taking place in hospitals as a result of the novel coronavirus hit 21,678.

A member of the public jogs past a display of signs erected by a local artists on Tuesday in London. As social-distancing measures continue, data suggests that Britain's death toll is close to Spain or Italy, the worst-affected countries in Europe. (Dan Kitwood/Getty Images)

Labels: Death Count, INfection Rate, Novel Coronavirus, United Kingdom

Wednesday, April 29, 2020

Brazil "Much Ado About Nothing" COVID-19

"Undercounting empowers populists to say, 'See, things are not that bad."
"There is a huge effort by the federal government [of Brazil] to deny the gravity of the pandemic."
Pedro Doria, former executive editor, O Globo

"The big conclusion is that we don't know what the real scenario is."
"It gives the sensation that it is more controlled, when the reality is very different."
Leonardo Costa Ribeiro, economist, Federal University of Minas Gerais

"As a researcher, I look at the data and make analyses for the government."
"But as a citizen, I'm frustrated. The government is trying to control the epidemic without the elements of how to control it, because they don't know how serious it is."
"It will get much worse. There will be lines at the hospitals. There will be lines at the cemeteries."
"The next few weeks will be very dark."
Domingos Alves, data scientist, University of Sao Paulo

"Brazil could be thought of as a barometer of what could be expected in other countries."
"Information is paramount. The more we have, the more we can make the population aware of what it is exactly that we are facing."
Marcelo Gomes, researcher, Oswaldo Cruz Foundation

Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro speaks to his supporters during a protest Sunday.

In Brazil the problem of inadequate testing numbers in the battle against the global pandemic that the novel coronavirus out of China represents within the global community is almost totally absent. Not even the bare minimum is being done in Latin America's largest country, with a population of almost 210 million people, which has tested up to 40,000 cases, 12 times fewer than is being done in Iran, with its population of 82 million. Both countries have been hit hard by the SARS-CoV-2 virus causing COVID-19. Both deny the extent that the virus has penetrated their populations.

Patients that are hospitalized are not tested, and nor are some medical professions even while people are dying in their homes without having been tested. Brazil's President Jair Bolsonaro speaks of the pandemic as a 'fantasy' behind a 'a little flu'. The numbers, he declared earlier in the month "looked like the virus is starting to leave". Demonstrating in point of fact, that his is the 'fantasy' of the state of the epidemic in his country.

Brazil's health minister, Luis Henrique Mandetta, repeatedly, publicly contradicting the president on the crisis' severity, has been fired for his monumental audacity in undercutting the casual messaging of the president. And even as his supporters gather in city streets, repeating their president's calls for the economy to be reopened, data scientists warn the Brazilian epidemic of COVID is dramatically, dangerously more severe than they realize.

According to researchers at the Federal University of Minas Gerais, the country suffers eight times more cases of the coronavirus than official numbers admit to. A University of Sao Paulo research team is convinced the real number is 15 times greater than the official one, in other words up to 711,000 cases. Close to 37,300 people have been hospitalized this year if government statistics are to be believed, with respiratory ailments.

Half of that number of hospitalized patients have test results, while in Sao Paulo close to 1,300 people have died of unidentified respiratory problems in comparison to last year's 50 people. In Amazonas state's capital city so many people are being buried, representing three times the average rate, trenches are being dug for mass graves. At least it has that in common with Iran.

"We are not talking about testing the entire country. We are going to use the tests so that people tested will reflect the Brazilian population", said the new health minister, Nelson Teich who has declared increased testing the new pillar of the nation's pandemic response. To that purpose, the government has plans to buy 45 million tests, sufficient for a fifth of the population, though when the tests arrive or when they're intended for use remains a mystery. One can only hope they aren't arriving from China.

Brazil's laboratories, according to analysts, have been overwhelmed by a backlog of testing, they are not equipped to process tests at scale. And when it comes to competing on the international scrum for badly needed medical supplies and testing equipment, wealthier nations are winning that battle, able to pay out more or leverage advantageous ties with China. The country that gave the world COVID-19 now basks in popularity as a source for (faulty) medical supplies and equipment.

Police officers wearing protective masks patrol the Rocinha slum in Rio de Janeiro. Photograph: Ricardo Moraes/Reute

"Sometimes they don't even wait for me to say my mother's name before hanging up."
"Nobody tells me what really happened to her. It was all very fast, and we just wanted an answer."
"It's inhumane."
Bruna Marques, 24, Sao Paulo state, grieving her mother's death

"One day, I saw on the news that in all of Sao Paulo there had been 20 burials of coronavirus victims."
"But I knew at my cemetery alone, there had been 27."
Manoel Norberto Pereira, gravedigger, Sao Paulo

Labels: Brazil, Deaths, NovelCoronavirus, President Jair Bolsonaro, Testing, Transmission

Tuesday, April 28, 2020

Defying Illness and Death for Life-as-Usual

"What we see is that in many states, you see an increase in influenza-like illnesses, and then a week or two later, you see an increase in deaths due to pneumonia and influenza."
"It provides some confirmation that what we are seeing is related to coronavirus."
"We decided to look at all deaths from pneumonia, or all deaths overall, and see how those numbers were changing,"
Dan Weinberger, epidemiology of infectious diseases, Yale University

Protesters demonstrate against safer-at-home orders at the Colorado Capital in Denver on Sunday. Some counties there have implemented stricter measures than the state, which had announced an easing for some businesses starting Monday. (Jason Connolly/AFP/Getty Images)

"In New York City, this discrepancy [between numbers forecasted and numbers realized] was even more stark, with three to four times as many excess all-cause deaths as pneumonia and influenza deaths."
"For instance, California had 101 reported deaths due to COVID-19 and 399 excess pneumonia and influenza deaths."
"Many states experienced a notable increase in the proportion of total deaths due to P&I (pneumonia and influenza) starting in mid-March through March 28 compared to what would be expected based on the time of year and influenza activity."
"In some states, such as Florida and Georgia, the increase in deaths due to pneumonia and influenza preceded the widespread adoption of testing for the novel coronavirus by several weeks."

"Given the lack of adequate testing and geographical variability in testing intensity, this type of monitoring provides key information on the severity of the epidemic in different geographic regions."
"It also provides some indication of the degree to which viral testing is missing deaths associated with COVID-19 directly or indirectly."Research report, published in MedRxiv

Public antibody testing ramps up as US coronavirus cases approach 1 million

The United States has been hit by one of the globe's worst epidemics of novel coronavirus. The death toll is approaching 58,000, increasing at a steadily rapid rate. Despite this, a growing number of state governors appear to be defying reality, in lock-step with the president anxious to see a return to normal life, in particular that business as usual would resume. The economy has been put to a standstill. From a situation of full employment and more jobs than people to fill them, suddenly mass unemployment has struck the country. On Saturday alone, there was an additional 2,404 coronavirus deaths reported.

Yet, a belief born of desperation appears to be informing decision makers, that the worst of the outbreak could have passed, matching pressure from the corporate community that the devastated U.S. economy must see some relief from the imposition of lockdown. Across the country anger and frustration have seen protests erupt, with citizens decrying the unneeded security steps, that their liberties have been abridged, that the American way of life has been upended for no good and reasonable purpose.

As evidence of that looming distrust in government action in response to the advice from their top expert medical advisers, Americans are demonstrating their penchant for ignoring stay-at-home orders in a demonstration of quarantine fatigue. A team led by the University of Maryland, with the use of mobile-phone data, discovered that Americans have been leaving the confines of self-isolation in increasing numbers.

Operating manager Barry Lennon cleans up the table of customer Duke Scott in the empty dining room of the J. Christopher's restaurant on Monday in Brookhaven, Ga. As of Monday, restaurants around Georgia are allowed to offer dine-in service. (Jessica McGowan/Getty Images)

In California, thousands of people have gone to the beaches amid soaring temperatures on the weekend, choosing to entirely ignore the state governor's orders. Demonstrations have been reported in Springfield, Ill and Baton Rouge, La. Demonstrations in Michigan, where one of the worst breakouts has occurred in Chicago, have been supported by conservative groups. In response the governor agreed to ease some of the imposed curbs allowing some businesses to reopen.

In Georgia, Governor Brian Kemp is allowing hairdressers, nail salons and tattoo parlours to re-open their premises; hardly the essence of 'essential' services for a population in lockdown against a dread disease. There have been guidelines issued that clients and staff wear masks and customers be asked questions of their health conditions; with no way to monitor compliance. A raft of businesses will be permitted to operate over the coming week in around 20 states.

According to the director of the Johns Hopkins Center for Health Security, Tom Inglesby, he believes the country is "at the end of the beginning" of the crisis. As for President Trump, he has stated that his daily White House briefings are to be scrapped, "not worth the time and effort".

Some health experts and local politicians are concerned that restrictions put in place to slow the spread of COVID-19 are being lifted too soon in some U.S. states such as Georgia.

Labels: Coronavirus Deaths, Demonstrations, Lockdown, Noval Coronavirus, United States

Monday, April 27, 2020

Social Distancing in Closed Environments

"Very early on, we wrote two letters that we posted on social media that got tonnes of attention."
"Our method of protecting ourselves and the public from being infected is social distancing. And if you can't social distance ... you're just inviting disaster to strike."
"If you've got two people who are in a stadium and you tell them, close your eyes and just start walking around, the odds that they're going to walk into each other are pretty small. But if you have those same two people doing that in a room that's six-by-six metres, there's a pretty good chance that they're going to knock into each other. It's a simple function of the ability or the inability to distance."
"One of the advantages we have with long-term care facilities is at least we've been able to understand some degree of the problem. Someone's peeled back the scab, so to speak, to look under the bandage and we can see how absolutely horrific what was going on has been."
"The residents in these populations, we're just going to lose them. And that's a scar upon us if we can't protect our vulnerable."
"These are not closed systems. There are people who go and work there. And if we can't protect the healthcare workers, then almost certainly we're not protecting the health-care workers' families and therefore we're not protecting the public that is in contact with the health-care worker and their families and therefore we're not going to be able to get a hold of this whole problem."
Dr.Andrew Morris, professor of medicine, University of Toronto

"I think we're starting to see very quickly that hospitals are not really the front line of this pandemic in Canada."
"I think now people are almost playing a game of catch-up when you start looking at these settings [care homes for the elderly or disabled]."
Dr.Samir Sinha, director of geriatrics, Mount Sinai Hospital, Toronto

Flowers are see outside Résidence Herron, a long-term-care home in the Montreal suburb of Dorval, Sunday, April 12, 2020.

The Quebec coronor's office has launched an investigation into a long-term care home in a suburb of Montreal where 31 people have died in a conditions the premier has called "deplorable"

It has now been six weeks and ongoing, where Canadians across the country have been counselled that it is up to everyone to 'flatten the curve'. To remain sequestered in their homes, to go out only on rare occasions when it's absolutely necessary, to remain distant physically from others. Schools closed, non-essential businesses shuttered, public spaces and events off limits, borders closed, travel plans nixed. All well and good, but none of this affected long-term care homes, yet fully 78 percent of all COVID-linked deaths have occurred in long-term care homes.

All of these measures to try to control a hugely infectious and sometimes morbidly-threatening new cornavirus were predicted before the virus entered North America. Dr. Morris, for one, was alert early on that COVID-19 would present an enormous problem to Canada when it arrived, as it surely would. But even he and colleagues of his whose thoughts took a similar track, were unable to visualize just how dramatically the Canadian reality of life-normalcy would ultimately be affected.

The Eatonville Care Centre, where multiple deaths from COVID-19 have occurred, is shown in Toronto on Tuesday, April 14, 2020. THE CANADIAN PRESS/Nathan Denette

He and his colleagues got together to draft several letters outlining the situation that would unfold and their recommendations for an early response to the situation before it became a reality. At the time it seemed so difficult to believe that the country would swiftly be engulfed in a seemingly unstoppable epidemic they scarcely thought their communications would be given the serious consideration it required. Later, it would occur to them that though that attention was forthcoming, they had themselves failed to communicate the extent of the dire conditions that would ensue.

Now that Canadians have embarked on a voyage of countradicting the basic human impulse of sociability in an effort to halt the spread of the virus causing COVID-19, the very enormity of the threat takes on new proportions to our understanding of just how vulnerable we are as a population. But it is a readily identifiable demographic of the population that has borne the brunt of the infections.

Precautions were taken to close schools and daycares to shield children from the SARS-CoV-2 virus, the most readily identifiable group within any population that is given first thought. Fears of overwhelmed hospital emergencies failed to materialize, with hospital admissions and ICU capacity at not only manageable levels, but anxiously awaiting the arrivals of other emergency situations more commonly making use of those facilities that have suddenly disappeared.

People are withholding their presence at Hospital Emergencies, hoping that their worrying symptoms of heart problems, stroke, appendicitis, accidental injuries will somehow abate, rather than subject themselves to the possibility of appearing at a hospital teeming with infectious agents and find themselves infected with the dread virus. And then there is another casualty that few had given prior thought to, but several of Dr. Morris's colleagues had.

The virus that thrives in the company of groups of people in close communion, and sees its opportunities dwindling when people exercise caution to keep physical distances, found its metier when it entered the confines of closed gatherings, where people are placed in situations with tight physical spaces and an abundance of potential targets. Places like nursing homes and long-term care homes, prisons and shelters for the homeless. "Congregate settings", perfect for a virus to thrive.

If more isn’t done to protect shelters, prisons and in other so-called “congregate settings,” advocates warn more mass outbreaks are inevitable. Francis Georgian/Postmedia/File

And in long-term and nursing homes the virus has done precisely that. Shelters and prisons next on the list. "I think we're going to see numbers jump dramatically", Cathy Crowe, a nurse with decades of working with the homeless in Toronto, stated. While many shelters are attempting to implement some elements of social distancing, in their limited spaces it is beyond difficult to adequately achieve.

"It's pretty much impossible to maintain social distancing in pretty much every congregate setting of a shelter or a drop-in, to be perfectly honest", Diana McNally, with her years working in Toronto shelters, offered. "The diagnostic differentiation of COVID among people experiencing homelessness is very challenging", Dr. Naheed Dossani, palliative care physician who often works with the homeless, pointed out.

In prisons and jails outbreaks are beginning to occur. "I'm speaking to senior citizens who are serving prison sentences and telling me, I didn't know this was going to be a death sentence", Paul Champ, a lawyer in Ottawa stated. As for long-term care homes where well over fifty percent of the COVID deaths not only in Canada but globally, have been taking place, the sheer vulnerability of the aged, infirm and health-compromised has shocked the world.

Homeless people make shelters on the sidewalk

As the coronavirus outbreak continues, Los Angeles has been providing unhoused people with motorhomes and RVs, which allow them to maintain social distance. Photograph: APU GOMES/Getty Images

Labels: Canada, Deaths, Homeless Shelters, Infections, Novel Coronavirus, Old-Age Nursing Homes, Prisons, Social Distancing

Sunday, April 26, 2020

Out of Context? Out of His Mind!

"It is hugely irresponsible because, sadly, there are people around the world who might believe this sort of nonsense and try it out for themselves."

"This is one of the most dangerous and idiotic suggestions made so far in how one might actually treat COVID-19."

Paul Hunter, professor of medicine, University of East Anglia, Britain

"Is there away we can do something like that [disinfect people] by injection, inside, or almost a cleaning?"

"It would be interesting to check that."

U.S.President Donald Trump

"Neither sitting in the sun, nor heating will kill a virus replicating in an individual patient's internal organs."

"Drinking bleach kills. Injecting bleach kills faster. Don't do either!"

Penny Ward, Professor, pharmaceutical medicine, Kings College London

"Trump's briefings are actively endangering the public's health."

"Please don't drink disinfectant."

Robert Reich, professor, public policy, University of California, Berkeley

Donald Trump with a list of possible Covid-19 treatments at the White House briefing, 23 April 2020

Bleach and sunshine were proposed as possible strategies to tackle the coronavirus Getty Images

Well, if Donald Trump's enthusiastic endorsement of a drug meant to be used for malaria and commonly used in treatment of chronic auto-immune conditions, as an inexpensive and surprisingly effective antidote to the novel coronavirus sent the medical community into a tizzy of alarm and ultimately became responsible for the untimely deaths of some gullible people who believe the nonsense that spurts out of Mr. Trump's restless mouth, weren't enough, he's gone off on yet another influencer-tangent.

This time, musing about the potential in exposing the interior of a human body to UV light to destroy the novel coronavirus, and musing on the possibility of injecting people with disinfectant. Effectively killing them before the SARS-CoV-2 even gets a chance. The immediate reaction to these mindless thought-dispatches from a cerebral genius was to send off alarm bells throughout the medical community and prompt the manufacturers of disinfectant agents to loudly disclaim enhanced health properties for their products.

Doctors and all manner of health-industry experts were quick to raise their voices, urging people not to drink or inject disinfectant of any kind in any amount anywhere near their persons, despite the Trump suggestion that scientists would do well to investigate inserting cleaning agents into the human body to determine whether it too, like the malaria wonder drug could prove a way to cure COVID-19.

And as yet another alternative to the malarial drug, ultraviolet light to be inserted somehow into people infected to help clear them of the presence of the disease. Just as hydroxychloroquine use for COVID-19 protection and elimination has no basis in scientific fact but is undergoing a series of research trials, it is highly unlikely that a poisonous substance will undergo research of any nature to determine whether it might be effective beyond poisoning someone to death.

Once the reaction to his recommended actions by bioscientists was heard loud and clear, Mr. Trump disowned seriousness on his part, and instead offered sarcasm. And, in the spirit of what's good for the goose is good for the gander, the wide public reaction to his witless musings make ample use of sarcasm as well.

The Food and Drug Administration issued a health warning last August about MMS (miracle mineral solution) being touted and sold online complete with instructions to mix it with lemon or lime juice and imbibing a combination that forms a powerful, dangerous bleaching agent, according to the FDA. A halt to the sale of industrial bleach products by an organization calling itself Genesis II Church of Health and Healing, marketed as a cure for autism and AIDS was ordered by the U.S.Justice Department.

No one has yet, however, attempted to market a cure for stupidity, and that's really a tragedy. It might save Dr.Deborah Birx in her role as coordinator of the White House task force on the coronavirus from further embarrassment on those occasions when convention has it she must share a public platform with the president, painfully trying to make herself inconspicuous while Trump lauds disinfectant that "does a tremendous number on the lungs".

President Donald Trump looks on as White House Coronavirus Response Coordinator Dr. Deborah Birx speaks about the coronavirus outbreak in the press briefing room at the White House on March 17, 2020 in Washington, DC.

Drew Angerer—Getty Images

Labels: Idiotic Lunacy vs Cerebral Brilliance, Novel Coronavirus, U.S.President Donald Trump

Friday, April 24, 2020

Desperate Times, Desperate Solutions

Dr. Eleftherios Diamandis Peter J. Thompson/National Post/File

"It looks like a crazy idea -- people say 'No, no, no'."
"[But] the isolation leaves billions of people without immunity, and at the end of the day we must achieve immunity one way or another."
"And this is one way."
Eleftherios Diamandis, biochemist, head, Advanced Centre for Detection of Cancer, Mt.Sinai Hospital, Toronto

"[Diamandis's paper] is shocking in that it proposes the deliberate infection of healthy people in the prime of life by a feared virus."
"[But] it's thoughtful and] offers an important idea to discuss."
Juliet Guichon, ethicist, University of Calgary

"I don't subscribe to either of these proposals."
"Infecting people to build their immunity is wrong -- you do that with a vaccine, not with the virus."
Michael Houghton, virologist, University of Alberta

It is a shocking proposal that Dr.Diamandis proposes in his paper posted on his cancer research laboratory's website. This professor of biochemistry has proposed the setting up of special hospital settings and there volunteers could be infected with deliberation, with low doses of the COVID-19 virus, a procedure he proposes would help to build a national protective herd immunity. One that could be achieved a year prior to a vaccine becoming generally available.

The suggestion, provocative as it is, has appeared elsewhere as various countries in lockdown seeing their economies in dire straits have begun to think outside that particular box where the conundrum of keeping people safe, yet re-opening their economies to escape the devastating loss of national financial security has appealed to some. A group in the United States succeeded in recruiting over 2,000 volunteers prepared to be infected by COVID-19 in the interests if rapidly testing potential vaccines.

There have been suggestions that health workers be voluntarily infected to enable the creation of an immunized medical army. An echo of the past where people had been given a limited dose of smallpox in an effort to avoid a more devastating infection; a tactic named variolation. Nevertheless, this is a controversial concept where some scientists and bioethicists warn it would violate basic moral principles of medicine and research.

The base of the proposal is the understanding that the world will never be free of the novel coronavirus threat until enough immunity exists to cut transmission of the virus short. About 60 percent of the population is considered the base required to do so. The world awaits a vaccine to do the job, but that prospect extends into the future; a year, even a year-and-a-half distant. While lockdowns continue and nations see their economies crumble.

Grassroots group 1DaySooner claims to have recruited almost 2,400 volunteers from 52 countries to submit to studies of vaccine efficacy trials which involve a group randomly selected to receive a new potential agent with the other group receiving a placebo. As they go about their normal lives, the immune response is gauged.

Professor Diamandis states in his paper that Canada should pursue social distancing measures as is currently being done while considering the implementation of his idea when and if the epidemic peak has passed, the health care burden lifted and no vaccine is yet in sight. At that point, young, low-risk volunteers could be infected with a small dose of the coronavirus to result in minimal illness, the process leading to eventual immunity.

A note of caution came courtesy of Dr. Ian Mitchell, pediatrician and ethics export at University of Calgary who emphasizes that it remains unclear as yet what kind of immunity COVID-19 infection confers, and how long if it does, it might last.

Labels: Ethics, Immunity, Novel Coronavirus, Vaccine

Canada's Toxic/Benign Relationship with China

Jason Kenney (R) with Martin Lee.

"[I was] shocked to learn [of the arrest]. Martin is the elder statesman of Hong Kong democracy. I hope for his immediate release."
"Look, Alberta doesn't have a foreign policy, and I don't freelance in foreign policy. But I'll just say this: when a personal friend of mine is arrested as a political prisoner, I can't in good conscience stay silent."
"I make no apologies for speaking out in the interests of a great champion of human rights and democracy who was a political prisoner."
Alberta Premier Jason Kenney

"Canada is concerned by the arrests of political figures in Hong Kong on April 18 in relation to popular demonstrations that took place last year and believes that this extraordinary measure calls for close scrutiny."
Foreign Affairs Minister, Francois-Philippe Champagne, Ottawa

"No one stays out of the law. Ignoring the facts and openly advocating for the rioters can only undermine the rule of law, which is not in Canada's own interests."
"Local [Canadian] politicians [should] abide by the basic norms governing international relations -- and immediately stop interfering in China's internal affairs."
Chinese Consulate-General, Calgary

Pro-democracy activist Martin Lee waves as he leaves Hong Kong’s Central District police station on Saturday

Pro-democracy activist Martin Lee waves as he leaves Hong Kong’s central police station on Saturday. He was one of 14 people arrested on charges relating to last year’s mass protests © AFP via Getty Images

"It is feeling very, very much like a lost cause now [democratic movement in Hong Kong]."
"The enemy is advancing. We are losing. We are losing at a rate that the international community is not keeping up with as a counter force. It's like we have nothing to fight back with. And it's going to keep getting worse."
"We in the pro-democratic people, within the space of nine months, we've pushed the space against Beijing further than they [Hong Kong's older-generation democrats] have in 20 years."
"There are a hundred reasons under the sun, all the reasons under the sun, that Hong Kongers want to break free, because look at what we're suffering. So long as there is any hint or trace of Beijing rule in Hong Kong, we will always, always be fighting. We will always be struggling with our flesh and blood, with our lives. There are a hundred reasons why we want to break free."
"But where the conflict comes in is that Hong Kongers can't fight alone. We don't stand a chance against Beijing when we're fighting alone. We stand half a chance against Beijing when we have the international support that we really do need, but the international community isn't able to echo what Hong Kongers truly want in their hearts."
Catrina Ko, activist, pro-democracy uprising

Protesters standoff with police during a clash at an anti-government rally in Tsuen Wan district on August 25, 2019 in Hong Kong.

While the world is distracted with the over-arching issue of gaining control over the novel coronavirus, just incidentally unleashed upon it by cultural-cuisine happenstance or sloppy laboratory techniques in research zoonotics, Beijing has taken advantage of a focus elsewhere to advance its long-range plan a little closer to the present through a "supervisory" role in Hong Kong. In the process, dumping the agreement reached between it and Great Britain with the transition of Hong Kong from British oversight to China's benevolent care.

Martin Lee, 81, an elder statesman of democratic Hong Kong, was responsible for co-structuring the mini-constitution setting out the "one country, two systems" arrangement called the "Basic Law" whereby for 50 years Hong Kong's British-inherited democracy would be the law of Hong Kong. President Xi Jinping, however, is impatient with that rule which he seems to feel should be set aside as a useless historical document of no moment. He envisions complete control of Hong Kong; 'one country, one system'.

His agenda was not unknown to Hong Kong's democratic players who began their response of resistance to Beijing for the past several years. The Chinese Communist Party has done all it could to delegitimize, slander, imprison and demoralize the democratic activists. Last August and September large protests came out in the streets against Beijing's interference in Hong Kong, much less its short-term plan to obliterate the long-term plan. Protests drew 1.7 million Hong Kongers into the streets last August, to Beijing's alarm.

Intent on imposing itself in Hong Kong's internal affairs against the Basic Law, almost 8,000 Hong Kongers were arrested and more latterly along with them the older generation leaders of the democratic movement.And when Alberta Premier Jason Kenney's personal friend, the 81 year-old founder of Hong Kong's Democratic Party was arrested and imprisoned, he responded as a friend and fellow democrat should. Drawing the ire of the ever-irascible Chinese envoys to Canada, quick to respond with scathing comments about foreign interference in China's internal affairs.

It would be comic if it were not so peculiarly-Beijing-sinister. The CCP has spent years infiltrating Canada at every level, political, social, academic, to guide Canada's opinion of Beijing and acceptance of its 'basic dictatorship' as an admiring Justin Trudeau described it, for its ability to respond to situations, as totalitarian governments are known to. Canada has been in Beijing's bleak, back books of late, however.

When, in December 2019, police in Vancouver arrested Huawei executive Meng Wanzhou in respose to an extradition request from the United States, Beijing swiftly arrested two Canadians on espionage charges, sentenced two others to death for drug trafficking, and halted all imports of Canadian canola products and pork with the obvious intention of punishing Canada for its lack of adequate humility when it comes to dealing with China. And threatening repercussions should Ms.Meng not be released swiftly, with all due apologies. Oh, and by the way, inviting Huawei to work on Canada's 5G upgrade.

"To say the very least, it was quite a disappointment [the statement issued by Canada's Foreign Affairs Minister Francois-Philippe Champagne calling for dialogue and restraint on 'all sides'; anodyne and weak]."
"It was really beyond weak. The Canadian government couldn't even bring itself to utter the word 'condemn'. I am torn -- would it have been better to not even have a statement? I don't know. It was such a joke."
Natalie Hui, core member, Canadian Friends of Hong Kong organization

Labels: Beijing, Canada, Democracy Activists, Hong Kong, Huawei, President Xi Jinping

Thursday, April 23, 2020

And Won't He Be Missed : Release From Oppression in North Korea?

"Any credible direct reporting having to do with Kim would be highly compartmented (sic) intelligence and unlikely to leak to the media."
Korea specialist, U.S. government

"The basic assumption would be maybe it would be someone in the family [succession]. But, again, it's too early to talk about that because we just don't know what condition Chairman Kim is in and we'll have to see how it plays out."
"[The White House is monitoring the reports] very closely."
Robert O'Brien, national security adviser, U.S.President Donald Trump

"Something really is quite amiss, quite awry right now in North Korea."
"It's worrisome. If he's seriously ill and he dies, there is no succession plan. You could see a huge power struggle, people jockeying for position."
"Their lives would depend on it."
Joseph Yun, former U.S. envoy to North Korea

Kim Jong Un has not been seen at recent events amid reports he had heart surgery earlier this month [Ahn Young-joon/AP]

According to Mr. Yun, North Korea in recent years had responded swiftly to significant foreign news reports. What stands out to him in significance, said the man who works as an analyst for CNN, is that the country's controlled media is so far silent on a situation which has seen its leader mysteriously absent from the nation's most revered ceremony. Kim Jong Un was oddly nowhere in sight at the birthday celebration of his grandfather, Kim Il Sung on April 13. As the founder of North Korea, Kim's grandfather is revered.

The official North Korean KCNA news agency simply ignored the lack of presence of the nation's leader at this most important of ceremonies. Giving no indication of where the current leader might be, other than making reference to the evident fact that he had sent birthday gifts to honour the occasion to prominent citizens. Or someone did, administratively on his behalf, more likely.

And while authoritative sources both in South Korea and China cast doubt on viral reports that North Korea's leader is gravely ill following a cardiovascular operation, sources familiar with U.S. Intelligence note that the White House is monitoring the situation closely. A Seoul-based specialty website, Daily NK reported on Monday that 36-year-old Kim was in recovery from cardiac surgery.

A subsequent CNN report citing an unnamed U.S. official claiming the U.S. to be "monitoring intelligence" highlighting the state of grave danger Kim was in following surgery, was rejected by government officials in South Korea. Those two officials failed to validate that Kim might have undergone surgery. Kim's father, Kim Jong Il in 2011 died from a heart attack.

Kim's health, according to Daily NK had deteriorated since August as a result of heavy smoking, obesity and overwork, not to mention a family history of heart problems. According to the report, on April 12 Kim was hospitalized and hours later the cardiovascular procedure was undertaken. It also reported him to be recovering and being treated at a villa in the Mount Myohyang resort north of Pyongyang.

"My understanding is that he had been struggling [with cardiovascular problems] since last August but it worsened after repeated visits to Mount Paektu", referring to the country's sacred mountain, and quoting an unnamed source. No details are known respecting Kim's young children, but analysts feel his sister and loyalists could forge a regency to rule until a successor attains the age required to take the reins of government.

Kim Jong Un in pictures released in early December during a visit to battle areas of Mount Paektu [File: KCNA via Reuters]

Labels: Kim Jong Un, North Korea, Surgery

Tuesday, April 21, 2020

Germany, Past and Present

"[Germany should approach the fight against the disease] more like a marathon than a sprint."

"Future measures must be designed and prepared in such a way that, on the one hand, they ensure good health care and, on the other hand, that they can be sustained over the necessary periods of time."

"Planning for this transition must begin immediately in politics, administration, companies and other organizations."

"The attempt to centrally control the resumption of production would ... not work in practice. This resumption must be controlled primarily by the institutions and companies themselves."

Academic report, Ifo Institute for Economic Research

A man with a mask passes by an empty street during the coronavirus crisis in Berlin, Germany.

The first Western democracy that succeeded admirably in containing the COVID-19 spread is now prepared to begin the laborious process of re-opening its economy. Perhaps it is no coincidence that it is led by a woman. German Chancellor Angela Merkel is also by profession a trained scientist and as such is by definition a professional analyst with a degree in quantum chemistry. She is practical, plainspoken, firm and resolute as a leader, and Germans love their leader.

Coincidentally, Taiwan too has a trained scientist in its government in vice-President Chen Chien-jen, an epidemiologist and scientific researcher of some global renown. As an Asian democracy that prides itself on its sovereignty with a physical proximity to China, the source of the zoonotic SARS-CoV-2, Taiwan no doubt, like Germany, profited handsomely in gaining control of the novel coronavirus with the guidance and knowledge of its vice-president.

Having a background in science and economics is a great leg up in evaluating and analyzing complex data, aiding in decision-making beyond the capacity of lawyers and business leaders who typically become national leaders. Had matters moved forward for Germany as they did elsewhere, where the coronavirus established itself in large numbers it would not now be in a position to contemplate relaxing the measures it took early on in view of the emergence of that highly contagious virus.

Angela Merkel looks through a microscope while wearing a white lab coat.

Michael Kappeler / DPA / Alamy

Science-based policies succeeded in overcoming the deleterious effect of a densely populated country encircled by other nations that experienced high death rates. Germany's death rate of 54 deaths per million is immensely lower than that of other countries located nearby in Europe; Spain as example with 437 deaths per million; Italy with 384 deaths per million, France with 296 deaths per million, and that of the United Kingdom of 237 deaths per million population.

Much can also be attributed to the German temperament and culture of discipline and efficiency. During the worst days of the raging pandemic, Germany's Chancellor addressed the nation calmly and rationally with readily digestible explanations and statistics and a rationale for decisions taken. Most Germans trust and respect their Chancellor, her ethics and her values and her conscientious and conscious sense of humanity.

Her early imposition of stringent social-gathering limits, school closings, business closures, slowing of the economy and lockdowns in response to the early days of the novel coronavirus sweeping through the country along with the state of preparedness of its medical community to deal with the health crisis, the focus on testing and tracing of "every infection chain", all contributed to containing its spread.

It helped that, unlike other European and North American countries struggling to cope with the novel coronavirus in the absence of adequate, reliable personal protection equipment Germany was self-sufficient in medical devices, test kits and the production of equipment, with a surplus of ICU beds. It was able to initiate a robust testing program where now 120,000 tests are completed daily in a population of 83 million.

Leading to Germany's instituting a program of issuing "immunity cards" for people identified as having developed antibodies to the disease, enabling them to return to work, to travel and to socialize with a view to expanding the system to the degree that the country will gradually fully reopen its economy. The disciplined mind-set of the population, obedient to authority, resilient and given to national pride in this instance has been put to good use to benefit all of society.

Those same attributes seventy-five years ago led to a majority of the German population electing a political party calling itself the National Socialist German Workers' Party which most know in its abbreviated form: Nazi Party -- to which it was loyal and trusting. A party and a leader that led it to stretch beyond the bounds of human conscience, tolerance and compassion for those it accepted through a tremendous propaganda machine as sub-human, ripe for extermination.

This time, thankfully, it is a virus that German efficiency and bureaucracy is fixated on exterminating.

"Since the Second World War there has not been a challenge for our country in which action in a spirit of solidarity on our part was so important." -- Angela Merkel

Yad Vashem Security guard stands at the empty Hall of Names in the Yad Vashem Holocaust Memorial Museum in Jerusalem on April 19, 2020 (Yonatan Sindel/Flash90)

Labels: Chancellor Angela Merkel, Economy, Germany, Novel Coronavirus

Monday, April 20, 2020

COVID-19 : What Went Wrong?

"The single biggest lesson is speed. Speed is everything."
"We have outbreaks in multiple countries right now, increasing at exponential growth rates."
"And you see what that does. It's devastating."
Dr.Bruce Aylward, assistant director general, World Health Organization, Beijing, Feb.24

"In the case of COVID-19, there are asymptomatic patients."
"If these patients do not seek medical treatment in time, neither the patients themselves nor health-care workers can spot it in time, let alone control it and track and manage contacts."
Liang Wanian, senior official, China National Health Commission, Beijing, Feb.23

These were the early days of the novel coronavirus. Not in China, but as the rest of the world looked in, commiserated with the plight of the Chinese, and simply couldn't bring themselves to understand much less believe that they too, within short order, would be facing an implacable, sinister enemy intent on destroying human life. While Dr.Aylward was visiting China to get a closer picture of what was occurring, and in the process praising China for its firm hand and immediate action, warning the global community of the lethal threat and its lightning-speed communicability. the world watched but unconvinced, did nothing.

The praise heaped on China by the World Health Organization was not quite well earned. While China did indeed take steps -- eventually -- to halt the march of the SARS-CoV-2 virus internally, it bristled with outrage that the global community took steps -- eventually -- to close their borders to travellers from China, as 'racist'. China failed to act swiftly; the first cases of COVID, not yet identified other than as a strange type of pneumonia, occurred toward the end of November.

By December Chinese doctors were becoming alarmed, and began sending out notices to colleagues to protect themselves from the novel coronavirus transmission that began to erupt out of Wuhan. Their alarm was unjustified, according to Chinese authorities, who threatened them and coerced them to retract their statements. By January China was fighting a steadily rising and frighteningly deadly zoonotic and could no longer insist that nothing extraordinary was occurring.

Beijing and the Central Command of the Chinese Communist Party through President Xi Jinpeng, belatedly alerted the WHO and the global community. But not before ignoring the reality of the situation and allowing Wuhan residents to depart for international destinations on holidays, celebrating the Chinese New Year, and managing to transmit the coronavirus though asymptomatic, wherever they went.

Adalsteinn Brown, dean of the Dalla Lana School of Public Health at the University of Toronto, says Ontario is now expecting a much lower number of COVID-19 cases this month than earlier models anticipated.

In Canada, the federal Minister of Health declared that the "public health risk within Canada remains low". A mere dozen people had tested positive for the virus at that point. No need to react, all would be well. Canada's airports were screening passengers from China, South Korea, Iran and Italy. Only in fact that careful screening the public was assured was being done, was not. In early March tens of thousands of Quebecers headed out on the March break, earlier than the rest of Canada.

They travelled to Florida, New York, Europe and other global destinations. And when they returned they brought back with them their very personal encounters with the novel coronavirus. Many were not symptomatic or not yet showing signs of having contracted the virus, and with no idea they were harbouring that highly contagious virus, passed it on to others. From Italy and Austria, COVID-19 made its entrance to Canada; a respecter of no sovereign borders.

A health worker wearing protective gear takes care of a patient at the level intensive care unit, treating COVID-19 patients, at the San Filippo Neri hospital in Rome, on Monday. Italy on Monday reported its first drop in the number of people currently suffering from the novel coronavirus since it recorded its first infection in February. (Alberto Pizzoli/AFP/Getty Images)

As in France, the U.K., Spain, Italy and Germany, as the presence of the virus became frighteningly ubiquitous, governments issued orders for self-isolation, social distancing, the closing of all non-essential services, schools and universities and government workers began working from home. Soon workers in other industries were either working from home or laid off and unemployment began its ascent into alarming figures as the economy stuttered, balked and came to a standstill, then descended to a place no economist had seen in their lifetime.

The world is living in a truly historical time. China has generously given the pace of life and industry and environmental pollution a rest. We are now, all of us 'Living in Interesting Times', cursed by the CCP in Beijing to do so. We focus our minds and our actions on avoidance, hoping to shield ourselves successfully from the dread effects of this voracious virus that has struck down helpless health-impaired and elderly people in long-term care homes.

A member of the Canadian Armed Forces talks to a health-care worker at Residence Villa Val des Arbres, a long-term care home in Laval, Que., on Sunday as COVID-19 cases rise in Canada and around the world. (Graham Hughes/The Canadian Press)

Labels: Canada, China, Europe, Novel Coronavirus, WHO

Coping Desperately With an Insatiable Novel Coronavirus

"To protect and build towards our shared prosperity at least $100 billion is needed to immediately resource a health and social safety net response."
"In a best-case scenario -- $44 billion would be required for testing, personal protection equipment, and to treat all those requiring hospitalization."
"We estimate that between five million and 29 million people will be pushed below the extreme poverty line of $1.90 per day owing to the impact of COVID-19."
UN Economic Commission for Africa (UNECA)

Nigeria, the most populous and oil-wealthiest country on the African continent is set to lose between $14 billion and $19.2 billion in revenues from oil exports this extraordinary year of 2020. But then, the pricing war between Russia and Saudi Arabia not only beggared their own oil exports, but impacted deleteriously on oil revenues of first-world advanced countries like Canada. So Nigeria has not been alone in experiencing a drop of revenues from oil.

87 million people live in extreme poverty, in Nigeeia. Photograph: Sombo Sombo/Alamy

Yet even when Nigeria was receiving full value on the market from its oil exports, as one of two African wealthiest countries, it has never managed its economy to benefit its huge population of close to 200 million people, close to half of whom live in dire poverty, outstripping even India's indigent numbers with its far more numerous total population.

The African continent sees so many of its 54 countries in turmoil, beset with poverty and backwardness, conflict, ethnic and religious confrontations, tribal divisions of competitive advantage and never-ending territorial ambitions. All that, and endemic corruption, and national leaders wedded to self-aggrandizement siphoning off their nations' wealth to make themselves wealthy, withholding services other than to those who support their tyranny all make for a formula for failure.

So fa there have been fewer than 20,00 confirmed cases of the novel coronavirus throughout the total of Africa's 54 countries while over two million have been reported globally. But the UNECA now warns that the pandemic is likely to kill at the very least 300,000 Africans, while placing 29 million in extreme poverty unless $100 billion is released as a continental safety net. This, at a time when the world's economy is fast sinking.

While EU countries Italy and Spain have been brought low by the virus, flooded with cases of COVID-19, with an incredible death rate resulting, they have appealed for help in securing personal protection equipment for their medical personnel who are also dying of the virus, and critical medication, seeing none of their neighbours in the European Union responding to their pleas. All countries of the world are facing dangerous shortages of drugs and protective equipment for health workers. Where will such short-supply equipment be sourced for Africa?

A private security guard stands with a semi-automatic rifle loaded with rubber bullets in Hillbrow, Johannesburg, on April 17, 2020

Moreover, African finance ministers have now as well collectively called for an additional $100 billion in stimulus; effectively placing a stop to all external debt service. This, at a time when countries in Europe, North America and South Asia are struggling to support their economies, borrowing heavily in a desperate attempt to shore up local business enterprise and mass unemployment to avoid total economic collapse. Focusing on stimulus for their own badly faltering financial status where is the stimulus for Africa to come from?

The UN agency created a four-scenario model based on preventive measures introduced by governments in Africa so that in the total absence of interventions a calculated 1.2 billion Africans would be infected, with 3.3 million dying this year. In other words, in a continent of 1.3 billion people in total, the forecast is for virtually all to contract the novel coronavirus. A winnowing out of the weakest and most vulnerable. Nature at its survival-harshest.

Municipal workers dressed in protective gear rest while on duty disinfecting a street during the COVID-19 coronavirus pandemic in the Bab el-Oued district of Algeria's capital Algiers on April 9

However, since most of Africa has mandated social distancing ranging from curfews and travel guidelines in some countries to full lockdowns in others, with best-case scenarios reflecting intense social distancing, Africa would see 122.8 million infections, 2.3 million hospitalizations and 300,000 deaths, once a threshold of 0.2 deaths per 100,000 people weekly has been reached.

Then there is the dire reality of 36 percent of Africans living without access to household basic hygienic facilities, and adding to that the continent has 1.8 hospital beds per 1,000 people where advanced, developed countries average 5.98 beds per 1,000 people, and again a formula for disaster. Balancing that is the youth demographic of 60 percent below the age of 25, an age far less dramatically health-compromised by the infectious coronavirus.

Yet, Africa being Africa, 56 percent of the urban population live in overcrowded slums with a greater, vulnerable population resulting from HIV/AIDS, tuberculosis and malnutrition. According to the UNECA report, 94 percent of Africa's pharmaceuticals are imported, hard up against 70 countries globally responding to their own flood of COVID cases banning or limiting exports of supplies essential to fighting the virus. A situation again, universally shared.

A man carries a box of protective masks to emergency workers Thursday in Dakar, the capital of Senegal. The West African country has seen relatively few confirmed cases of the coronavirus to this point — but global health officials fear that won't always be the case. John Wessels/AFP via Getty Images

Labels: Africa, Deaths, Global Pandemic, Infections, United Nations

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